Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific
Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.
Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.
Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Can i get an AMEN
Big clouds here on the east side of the county but nothing to show for it.
No.
?? Have you not seen the newest anomalies? El Nino is certainly forming as we speak. No, it will not be declared this month or even next. However, in August we should have a full-blown El Nino event occurring if the current trend of warming continues. I never said it would be an official El Nino this month or next. Like I said though, in August (probably latter half) we should have an official one or close to it.
No problem!
gro
Here's an analysis from what I got elsewhere off of Facebook. (This pertains to mainly the East Coast)
ENSO Update 06/12/12
50%+ chance of El Nino for Winter 2012-2013
Looking at various models, as well as current conditions, our trek continues toward a possible El Nino event later this fall and into the winter months. Currently the 3.4 region, which is where ENSO events are officially tracked, is near zero ( this week came in at +0.2 ); however, this region should continue to rise throughout the coming weeks and months ahead.
Most models seem to be topping this event out around the +0.7 to +1.2 area right now which would be a weak (+0.5 to +0.9 ) to moderate ( +1.0 to +1.4 ) El Nino; however and as always, it is cautioned that it is June and not November… it will change much between now and then.
What does this mean for us this coming winter? For us climatologically speaking, our winter during an El Nino year is more likely to be colder than normal and wetter than normal than the average winter. Many other factors contribute to the prominence or decay of such conditions ( NAO, AO, PNA, etc. ), but should this event come to fruition, it will represent the first time since the winter of 2009-2010 where we would be favored over the course of an entire winter to have conditions that are more conducive ( notice I didn’t say conducive, I just said MORE conducive ) for above average wintry weather.
aprreciate that :P
More than two-thirds of Americans—including half of Republicans—still blame former President George W. Bush for the country's economic ills, according to a new Gallup poll released on Thursday....
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/americans-bush -still-more-blame-obama-economy-143913248.html
Even half of all Republicans get it....
AMEN... PREACH IT
It will not be a strong one.
pinhole
I don't remember it cause I was only 5 years old but I just asked my grandmother here on my side and she says it was a nightmare.... :)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
258 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
FLC095-117-141930-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-120614T1930Z/
SEMINOLE-ORANGE-
258 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN ORANGE AND WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...
AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN EXCESS OF 13 STRIKES A MINUTE. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MAITLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PINE
HILLS...FAIRVIEW SHORES...FAIRVILLA...OVIEDO...WINTER PARK...
GOLDENROD...ALOMA...ORLOVISTA...UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...AZALEA PARK...UNIVERSAL STUDIOS...UNION
PARK...ORLANDO...UNIVERSITY PARK...CONWAY...LOCKWOOD AND BITHLO
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH WAS REPORTED IN NEAR ALTAMONTE SPRINGS WITH
THIS STORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
PEA SIZED HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN LONGWOOD WITH THIS STORM.
&&
LAT...LON 2871 8154 2882 8130 2855 8107 2846 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 338DEG 23KT 2863 8137
$$
MOSES
so your grandma is now 142?
Maybe, maybe not. No one knows at this point. Predicting the strength of an El Nino/La Nina event is very difficult. Some models have said strong El Nino, some show it back to neutral. There are absolutely no certainties at this point.
right now we are in a neutral pattern
This infographic created by Jason at Frugal Dad shows that almost all media comes from the same six sources.
That's consolidated from 50 companies back in 1983.
NOTE: This infographic is from last year and is missing some key transactions. GE does not own NBC (or Comcast or any media) anymore. So that 6th company is now Comcast. And Time Warner doesn't own AOL, so Huffington Post isn't affiliated with them.
But the fact that a few companies own everything demonstrates "the illusion of choice," Frugal Dad says. While some big sites, like Digg and Reddit aren't owned by any of the corporations, Time Warner owns news sites read by millions of Americans every year.
Here's the graphic:
Looks like maybe its on a decline or restructuring itself. Cloud tops have collapsed 15K feet, and the reflectivity has fallen slightly.
Big storm over Valdosta!
Thanks for posting that as I was just estimating 70 mph and I see that was correct. Storm has passed now it's cleanup time. That storm dropped 1.06" at my work and my house has over 1.50". Now 9.47" for the month of June rainfall wise and still half of the month to go.
Buckle down, there's more coming!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
FLC095-117-141930-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-120614T1930Z/
SEMINOLE-ORANGE-
319 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN ORANGE AND WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...
AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...OR
NEAR AZALEA PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.
THE STORM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST 10 MINUTES.
HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL STORM HAS FORMED ON ITS EASTERN FLANK IN THE
VICINITY OF BITHLO THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BITHLO
LAT...LON 2871 8154 2882 8130 2855 8107 2846 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 338DEG 23KT 2851 8131
$$
BRAGAW
781
WUUS54 KLIX 141922
SVRLIX
LAC051-071-075-087-142015-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0123.120614T1922Z-120614T2015Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
222 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TIMBERLANE...METAIRIE...MARRERO...
HARVEY...
SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW ORLEANS...EAST NEW ORLEANS...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BELLE CHASSE...
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE...
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT
* AT 218 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BELLE CHASSE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TERRYTOWN...WESTWEGO...GRETNA AND BRIDGE CITY
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3004 9022 3003 9011 3004 9005 3006 9003
3005 9000 3006 8998 3007 8990 2977 8989
2974 9013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 176DEG 5KT 2984 9003
Unlikely but possible.
CLIMATE...AT TJSJ...TODAY MARKS THE SIXTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F AND THE FOURTEEN DAY IN A ROW
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. MEANWHILE...AT TISX...TODAY MARKS
THE 22ND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.
I was about to say hat you weregoing to get hit with a nasty one
I think Tampa is going to get it later.
Possibly, but land interaction may disrupt the circulation if it (Carlotta) moves parallel to the Coast line and limit its intensity.
Hopefully the energy isn't spent up by the time it reaches us....
I hope so. We need it.
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