Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific
Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.
Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.
Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Thats more likely.
I agree..... im just saying they arent being conservative about it
I remember going to bed with a storm offshore and waking up to school cancelled due to Hurricane Humberto.
What a beautiful storm.
why do you just put a period?
not as pretty as you think... ugly betty... put it back on visible please haha
they are heading out there now
I put a picture in...
It'll take a little while, but I'm not sure exactly when.
Lol, they always look better on visible... Still with the execption of a slightly ragged eye it's a powerful storm.
Raw Dvorak estimates are at T 6.1 which is category four strength. I'm not saying she is this strong, but I certainly wouldn't rule out major strength by landfall.
The ADJ t# has it around 90mph
Carlotta has become a mean hurricane. Classic case of rapid intensification.
Amazing how fast she decided to wrap up.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA.
Remember, T numbers are great, but there is no subsitute for recon.
"There is currently no scientific evidence that a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean existed anytime in the last 700,000 years, although there were periods when the Arctic was warmer than it is today."
Link
Look at the latest update:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUN 2012 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 13:51:23 N Lon : 95:46:33 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.4mb/ 79.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.7 6.1
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km
Center Temp : 6.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C
Scene Type : EYE
This will be a major hurricane soon I'm afraid.
Call me a hype man if you wish, but I've seen this before.
Look at this beautiful 37 gHz image from earlier today, which was a harbinger of this rapid intensification phase we are seeing:
That low was forecast to track west along the coast over the next few days. We're expecting to get some rain from it here midweek sometime.
Around 2 PM EDT.
To look back into the past, researchers combine data and records from indirect sources known as proxy records. Researchers delved into shipping charts going back to the 1950s, which noted sea ice conditions. The data gleaned from those records, called the Hadley data set, show that Arctic sea ice has declined since at least the mid-1950s. Shipping records exist back to the 1700s, but do not provide complete coverage of the Arctic Ocean. However, taken together these records indicate that the current decline is unprecedented in the last several hundred years.
Link
Good Mourning, no 11am advisory in. it looks like NHC is in a state of panic
as their info are outdated and not much data from the Hurricane Hunters have come back yet and we have a rapidly intensifying cane as it enters its peak which could be a 120 mph cat 3. Hope for the sake of the Mexican people the NHC get it together so they can prepare for a much stronger storm. Also as it weakens close to land it may not weaken to a tropical storm as indicated by the 8am and turn back over water it could stay a hurricane and reintensify before making landfall again.
Now
9 hrs ago.
Yeah, but she has some issues on the NE quad, looks like dry air and land interaction.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUN 2012 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 13:54:15 N Lon : 95:49:10 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.4mb/ 82.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.7 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km
Center Temp : +10.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.0 degrees
CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO.
THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST.
AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 96.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 17/1200Z 16.6N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 19/1200Z 16.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
Link NHC Carlotta Page
R.I. FLAG FLAG
ON APPROACH
03E/XH/C/C2
MARK
13.33N/95.43W
Agreed
Wow..even inland its still strong
This is also from 8 a.m. NHC Discussion:
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.
AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
shes not quite full figured
She's not that small for East Pac standards though... They're usually smaller out there.
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