Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific
Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.
Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.
Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.
Angela
Reader Comments
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i like it here too
By the way, STS means Severe Tropical Storm over there, not Subtropical Storm.
Why did they stop using Recon?
FRESCA
More than likely, just Chris.
I think just Chris..... Maybe Debby in July
i didnt know that either
Its brah..
gro does but heisnt here
I am here
The way I see it work out:
May
Alberto
Beryl
June
Chris
July
Debby
August
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
September
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
October
Michael
Nadine
November
None
pretty soon hes gonna be like
Twave? HYFR
This is one run...hmm....
thats asafe bet.
Found him!
"Dutch artist Berndaudt Smilde creates indoor clouds - this one is Nimbus II."
Posted by 28storms.com
The Weather Channel Australia:
Smilde apparently uses a spray bottle to mist water in the air, combined with a smoke machine that releases a fog-like compound as well as dramatic backlighting to create his indoor clouds. These clouds only last a few moments though.
This is one run...hmm...
Oh geez.
Don't get him started.
you meant this
hahahaha
See! The Ensembles come into a perfect and clear solution! God, I hate the regular runs that go nuts because they have now idea what to do with the system.
If you missed it in Dr. Master's last blog I wrote a new blog on Carlotta and Guchol
Link
Wow...is that real?
bring it
and I found you
Indeed it is!
Wait! i just noticed everyone. Look at Stormchaser's picture, comment 75. and Look at the east atlantic.
You see what the ensembles are thinking... :O
Link
Is this what you are looking for?
The models are alll over the place. But that run right there...ive seen it for the past 3 days...its been consistent.
It even seems to be backing off just a bit at the moment.
There is a weak eye
The Gulf and Caribbean sure are heating up though!
The timing would have to be much later- about 3 days later, then the High would build in and you would see a system running around and circles until it hit something, in the Southern Gulf.
Im in agreement with the Gulf coast hit, solution. Not saying it will happen, just seems more of a practical solution and is backed by the model ensembles as of right now.
Family net worth plummets nearly 40%
It looks like its digressing
The negative PDO seems to be limiting the westward progression of the warm equatorial pacific waters...
....A CV storm?
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