Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific
Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.
Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.
Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I don't but I know it was the worst flooding Richmond saw up until Gaston in 04. The James River overflowed its banks (this was 25 years before they built the flood wall) and flooded much of the businesses adjacent to the river. Travel in and out of Richmond was impossible because of the flooding, most notably amtrak because their routes ran right along the james from Norfolk, through Richmond and further north towards DC.
The girls in Texas all want Chuck, but he doesn't want them.
I find it funny that there are over 10 severe t'storm warnings but not a single tornado warning.
Pretty much did. While getting use to the calculator I used to double check with the slide rule.
You know in Europe they name every low and high pressure and people pay to have a pressure named after them
National Weather Service Miami FL
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2012
Hendry FL-Palm Beach FL-
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2012
I am serious ...Its the Berlin institute that do it. Its practically self funded institution
Should be 70 mph at 11 pm.
Give a kid a dollar, and we got ourselves Hurricane Buttface.
Not that high. I'd say 50 kt (60 mph).
You were born in August 68 (Don't know the exact day)
I like 'Chuck'. Who on either side of FL and up north
to the islands wouldn't want to party with Chuck? Especially with the 5-10ft waves in his swag bag?
Then he can contract a tour guide out past the OBX for
some deep-sea hookin. TS Chuck will be remembered fondly for decades.
I am old enough to remember Agnes. I watched the flooding in PA on the news, and was upset about it. I was too small to know I was safe. That storm and the 1974 super outbreak influenced my childhood quite a bit.
This is a tad old but it doesn't show any hints of one
I would have loved to been around for that one, though the 2011 one was good enough for me!
Nothing new, sadly we will be back in a drought in no time, it hasn't rained since last Friday when we had all that rain last week, its already drying out here and yet an unusually dry weather pattern is coming up to add to this, it looks more like what you would see in mid march or in New Mexico, not Florida in June. I guess I got too excited, and I can't really rely on the weather this time of year like I grew up with or like generations before me did. The Climate is changing...
-__-
LMAO!!!
It's one of those thing you want to experience once in your life, but once you do, you never want to experience it again...
I'm on the newer side of Y'alls age bracket, but not quite as young as some of the other folks on here.. ;)
Exactly. Similar to going through a hurricane. I was excited when Ike came my way, but after going through 18 hours of sheer he** (between the entire BUILDING moving with wind gusts, to watching my windows bow with wind gusts)... I'm good. Seriously. The very mild anxiety I experience when I hear a chainsaw cutting into wood combined with the smell of freshly cut wood is just icing on the cake.
As a nursing student doing my psychiatric rotation right now, there are actually people still experiencing PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) from Ike, and needing professional psychiatric care because of it.
Wonder who the YOUNGEST is??
I'm 12 lol
Tornadoes are a few minutes of sheer abject terror, followed by a few weeks of cleanup and putting your life (and psyche) back together.
Hurricanes are a couple of days of nervous waiting followed by 12-18 hours of a living he**, jumping at every unusual noise, followed by weeks of having your life turned upside down and your psyche turned inside out.
Go to the winderground hurricane archive, I can't link it because im on my phone
Hurricane Buttface would come up into the Gulf as a category 5 then get smack by.a trough and go under the florida keys and out to sea, still a category 5. FAIL.
Not in this Blog it doesn't!! LOL!!
Didn't get my first taste of hurricane until Ivan in '04 when I was stationed in Biloxi (not a direct hit). That was exciting for me!
But then I got a full blow from Katrina in '05... That was enough Hurricane experience to last me a lifetime!! Prefer not to experience anything like that again!
EP, 03, 2012061500, , BEST, 0, 121N, 944W, 55, 994, TS
All the info is there.
(I just Googled "2004 atlantic hurricane season")
Its also 12-18 hours of adrenalin
I love it
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