Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
South Carolina currently seems unlikely. Picking between northern Florida and Georgia is difficult before the system has consolidated into a single center. Right now it has two, so for now the best estimate, in my opinion, is that landfall will occur somewhere between Daytona Beach, Florida and Savanna, Georgia. That's not a horribly long stretch of coastline anyway.
I remember when the the NHC was built in Miami. It used to be a tomato field.
I am thinking there will be some weakening in the 6-12 hours before landfall as the storm leaves the Gulf Stream behind.
Interesting to see what will happen over the next 12-24.
At least they put it back in the right spot..
C, too much dry air coupled with moderate SSTs will probably keep this at TS strength. Just for fun, I expect it to peak between 55-65 mph with a pressure between 992-995 mb.
94L will become Tropical Storm Beryl at the first advisory.
I say C about 60 mph... Conditions aren't perfect (see picture showing all the dry air to the west) but they are conducive for a mid strength TS
Of course, they may have not updated it because nothing has changed yet and they don't need to... but I'm impatient. :P
Sounds like a good summation to me. I think the good things I heard about you are correct.
Now how deep and how strong the winds (best guess) :)
Seems pretty bullish for the Euro, I expect that from the CMC...but not the Euro. I wonder if shear might really drop off after all the meanderin 94L is bound to do, that could explain this solution.
EP, 02, 2012052518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 1055W, 65, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 30, 20, 20, 1007, 220, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BUD, D
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
"nuttin but net"
June 1st is the date when Regularly issued Tropical Weather Outlook's are issued.
Find GIF loops here
EP022012 - Hurricane BUD
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track
Are you Dwayne Wade?
Yup, the start of the regularly scheduled season, and I can't wait!
Or is there too much dry air?
I'll go C.) but I'll say 40 knots at max strength and sub-tropical.
Pat,it would help if we had some lines on this to look at!
By Alexandra Witze
June 2nd, 2012; Vol.181 #11 (p. 26)
Anyone waiting for Hurricane Irene on North Carolina's coast last August might have been a little disappointed. As the storm barreled toward the Outer Banks, parka-clad TV meteorologists lined the beaches in anticipation. But instead of grinding ashore as powerfully as expected, Irene wimped out, hitting land with wind speeds about 10 percent weaker than predicted.
Just as easily, hurricanes can do the opposite, strengthening when they're not expected to. Take Charley, which jumped two categories on the hurricane scale in five hours before slamming into Florida in 2004. Or 2007's Felix, which intensified quickly into a Category 5 storm, the highest possible, before devastating much of Nicaragua.
Why some storms spin up with deadly force and others putter along, or even weaken, remains something of a scientific mystery. And so hurricane forecasters have made this problem a top priority for the next decade.
...
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/340770 /title/Storm_Front
Being I live right in the SE corner of Georgia, this is really gonna be interesting to watch. Thanx Levi, you always put everything in total perspective...
A moderate TS
When you say southern center are you referring to the one at 31N 75W or thereabouts?
They should have a new STWO out soon.
As I discussed in my blog entry this morning, I believe this should develop and attain around 60mph winds, a moderate tropical storm, technically the same peak as Alberto, but in reality stronger because it is a larger system, will remain stronger for longer, and has more moisture associated with it. Alberto was a flash in the pan and very small. This should be a more potent system than Alberto due to more moisture available, a well-defined pre-existing low-level center, and a track that will take it over the warmest SSTs of the southwest Atlantic.
Should be interesting after it makes its first landfall, it looks like its forecast to get stronger before it heads up towards us.
I'm in ILM.
Just a Curious question, Since i dont live or visit that area often.
When was the last time you were Directly affected by a Tropical System?
Lines Beaucoup
NC dont forget that particular model is 6 days out yet
It's a hurricane on its last legs, ir can be deceptive there are still some strong winds in there. Thankfully diminished amounts of rain as well.
Yeah Mexico dodged a bullet... And you're probably right, there's probably still some hurricane winds at the center as it takes these big hurricanes a while to spin down.
Yes, right here:
It's already almost up to the old 12z coordinates of the northern low, which is becoming less defined by the hour. They may be indistinguishable soon.
Have a great weekend.
Quelle surprise!
i see phasing jet streams.
No good comes of that
What about that 984mb low cutting through the US... That would be interesting.
Nasty tornado outbreak possibly if that where to verify.
Thanks, been in and out all day. I didn't even realize a second location, I've only been looking at that one.
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