Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Does anyone know if there has been a Georgia landfall since David in 1979? Or when the last time a storm made its first/only landfall in Georgia-- David went through the carribean/florida before it got to georgia.
Subtropical Storm Beryl develops 5/26/2012
Pretty much...An he is subtropical. Therefore deeper convection tends to be further removed from center. Day time heating may help moisten up the atmosphere a little. Decent moisture in front of the storm, but it is still pulling in dry air from the W and wrapping it in to the center.
It is a statement of physical fact in the implicit form of IF-THEN.
Dry air and the fact that the system isn't really over waters warm enough to support continued thunderstorm activity yet. That should change as we head into this afternoon and tonight.
It's because he is detaching from the trough... which aided in the firing of convection. Soon she will refire....
Well, despite rather weak convection, vort properties are looking strong, I would think this system has to fill in at some point given the above...
Loop de loops are a tricky one for the models though. Like you said, time will tell.
Can't say Beryl looks like much, but on the wider loops it does seem like that fetch of moisture to the east belongs more to her now than to the trof pulling out. Of course, the dry air to the west she's pulling in belongs to her too.
Very close by, just a little less than 100 miles west of her.
looks l;ike a ull to me lol
Good points. It will boil down perhaps to the timing between intensity at/near landfall and the timing of the trof and how soon the storm will feel the trof and kick back out (again depending on how far inland She gets perhaps).
look what i pulled up
...MAX WINDS...
INIT 26/1500Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER-WATER
120H 31/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH...
(click to enlarge; graphics can further be enlarged in Link window)
Rumor was he was coming back.
The reason why the ECMWF is wrong though is that the high is stronger than it thinks, this is late May and that trough won't just blast into the southeast as if nothing is in its way. The ECMWF I think is confusing late May with late January, LOL.
Either way, the ECMWF is off track, the current movement of Beryl is not a jog, it has no choice but to go southwest for a while. It will eventually turn back west, but by that point it will be farther south than current expectations.
The GFS has been handling Beryl the best of the models so far, it predicted this turn back southwest way before some of the other ones which still have a north and northeast bias.
That is why the NWS here in Ruskin has been basing its forecast more on the GFS for this system, they don't really buy the other model solutions...
INIT 26/1500Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER-WATER
120H 31/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH...
Were shredding through pages today, arent we?
agree and the further south she goes she could get more enigize from the the stuff around the baha and cuba all in all will be fun to see what she has up her sleve
Might have our first 2000 commenter of the season
Hmmmm...
Not a whole lot. We've had a lot of near misses though and had a "few" timely showers over the past couple of months that have kept things close to reasonable. The area, in general, could be doing much worse. We've seen it a lot worse than what we're having this year.
Meanwhile, RAMMB is tracking something in the Bahamas and W Carib.
Baha Loop
Carib Loop
It's sorta obvious we are.
Correct me if im wrong, But it looks like convection is starting to Build on the South side of the system?
;)
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