Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Beatriz (last year) was just as fast:
I told ya'll Bud was not threat to land......
It's most recent position is 32.4n75.3w
Its vector had changed from North at ~12.7mph(20.5km/h) to WNWest at ~4mph(6.5km/h)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at ~40knots(46mph)74km/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 1001millibars
For those who like to visually track STS.Beryl's path...
GGEis Georgetown,S.Carolina : MEO is RoatanIsland,N.Carolina
The kinked line is as much of 94Ls path as would fit on this particular map scale
The northernmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest94L became SubTropicalStormBeryl
The westernmost dot on the shortest line was STS.Berl's most recent position
The longest coast-to-sea line-segment is a straightline-projection
through STS.Berl's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
On 26May6amGMT, STS.Berl was headed toward passing over GeorgetownMunicipalAirport in ~2days7hours from now
Copy&paste meo, gge, 28.1n78.1w, 30.0n75.6w, 31.2n75.1w, 32.3n74.9w, 32.3n74.9w-32.4n75.3w, 32.3n74.9w-33.292n79.172w into the GreatCircleMapper for more*information.
The previous mapping for comparison.
* For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 28.1n78.1w and the first 32.3n74.9w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 32.3n74.9w
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a 'copy&paste'able copy of what generated my map.)
WTNT32 KNHC 260546
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
200 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
...BERYL NOW DRIFTING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND
BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 75.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST. BERYL IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS
EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BERYL WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN
THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RECENTLY NOAA BUOY 41002...LOCATED ABOUT 45
MILES...75 KM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF BERYL...REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...
65 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA ON
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Wait..."subtropical"? What's that?
Unlike a purely "tropical" cyclone, a "subtropical" depression or storm:
Tends to have more thunderstorm activity farther from its center.
Tends to have its strongest winds farther from the center.
Play Video
We Now Have BerylAutoplay OnOff
"Subtropical" cyclones have cooler air at any given level in the atmosphere than "tropical" cyclones. They can transition to purely tropical cyclones or hurricanes, but to do so, they'd have to suddenly generate enough thunderstorms wrapping around closer to their low-level center to warm the core of the circulation.
Like Alberto, Beryl won't simply shift east into open waters, but rather meander around the Southeast coast, bringing occasional bands of rain, gusty winds, elevated surf, and a risk of rip currents for parts of the coast at times this weekend.
Tropical storm warnings have been hoisted for parts of the Southeast coast. As we mentioned above, given this is a "subtropical" storm, the strongest winds may arrive in the warned areas well in advance of the landfall of Beryl.
Beryl Satellite
Animated satellite Interactive radar
Let's break it down day by day this holiday weekend...
- Saturday: Bands of rain, at times, along the coasts of N.C. and S.C. Strongest winds from Outer Banks spreading southward along S.C. coast. Breezy along Florida's First and Space coasts.
- Sunday: Beryl should come ashore in northeast Fla. or Ga. coast. Bands of rain, thunderstorms possible eastern Carolinas to north, central Florida (apart from typical sea-breeze PM t-storms elsewhere in Florida). Breezy/windy extreme northeast Fla. to eastern Carolinas.
- Memorial Day: Beryl weakens inland over far north Fla. or extreme south Ga. Lighter south-southeast lingering breezes from northeast/east-central Fla. coast to S.C., & N.C. coasts. Lingering showers and thunderstorms, particularly in northern Florida.
(MORE: Your local forecast)
On the bright side...a large swath of the Southeast is suffering from extreme or exceptional drought. Beryl will eventually help deliver some rainfall, but it will take much more rainfall to quench a drought of this severity.
(MAPS: Areas in drought | 48-hour rain forecast)
PREVIOUS ARTICLE
2012 NOAA Hurricane Season Forecast
To help clear up some disagreements, The lower 48 states are referred to as the "contiguous" not continental. That means they are not separated.
Yes,1908 has two storms before June 1, but only 1887 had 2 sotrms form in May.
Any other questions? Aw come on,let an old man feel important.
I think we called them the lower 38 in those days.
This is our local weather statement this morning:
Statement as of 5:50 AM EDT on May 26, 2012
... Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...
... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Outside preparations should be completed today... well before the onset of gusty winds and heavy rains on Sunday... which may cause outside activities to become dangerous.
... Winds...
the latest forecast is for maximum winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. However... as subtropical storm Beryl approaches... stronger winds are still possible. Continue to closely monitor the forecast for any significant changes and be ready to act.
Think I'll plant the dune daisies I've been thinking about today.
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
THE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPOSED ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER... SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION REMAIN SUBTROPICAL 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 40 KT. BERYL IS STILL ENTANGLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER...IT COULD LIFT THE TROPOPAUSE AND ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...ALLOWING BERYL TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL AS SEEN IN FIELDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS...WITH SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES BACK OVER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
OVERNIGHT THE CENTER OF BERYL HAS SLOWED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/04. AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE WEEKEND...BERYL SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND TURN WESTWARD AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE NEW TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND BERYL WILL MOVE AND HOW QUICKLY IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME OF THE MODEL SPREAD APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH BERYL WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND...AS A SHALLOWER WEAKER CYCLONE WILL NOT BE PICKED UP AS QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...MORE WEAKENING...AND ARE SLOWEST WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE ECMWF DOES NOT MOVE BERYL AS FAR INLAND...MAINTAINS A DEEPER CYCLONE...AND ACCELERATES IT NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCEENVELOPE.
THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A 0226 UTC ASCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 32.3N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 31.8N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 31.0N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 30.6N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 30.6N 81.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 31/0600Z 34.5N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Link East Coast Water Vapor Loop
Hello Beryl
Georgia and South Carolina needs rain.
Florida needs surf.
Ideal conditions Sunday for Florida and Abaco to receive swell with offshore winds.
I think everyone's in shock K8e!
Ahhhh but that aint ever stopped em before LOL
Im praying too WX
Skies are clear at Cape Fear. Wind is North at 25 Kts with gusts to 31... seas are in the 8 foot range with a steady glass.
Morning MissNadia
a little overcast here by the airport and a little breezy
I also goggled AVN retriever and checked the links, all come to dead ends.
Winds@1000mb (Surface)
Winds@925mb
Winds@700mb
Winds@600mb
Winds@500mb
Click Images for full size.
got a link, WUmail me it, please
well it probably because you put in goggle.com.au and not google.com.au
lol
Last year there was a similar "initiator" (weak TROF/LOW) in the NW Carib/FL Keys that attempted to get itself together but got pushed out to the E by the strong westerlies, but didn't see any tropical systems affecting FL prior to the raining season starting.
Viewing: 1751 - 1801
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