Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I like them. :) I just would imagine them in my head.
Congrats to all.
Preview from my upcoming blog post on this situation...I agree....
"P8...A pair of tropical waves are in the tropical belt of the Atlantic...one that has entered the Caribbean from the Lesser Antilles...the other following behind hundreds of miles to the east. Both waves are suppressed by dry air mentioned at the end of paragraph P7 above. Upper easterlies (aligned with low-level easterlies) on the south side of paragraph P7's upper ridging means favorable low shear. If the western of the two tropical waves overcomes the dry air and starts to develop T-storm activity in this low shear environment...this may lead to yet another area of interest. Absolutely no signs of that at this time."
Hey,PP .....It looks like it is moving West
Link
Hey hydrus, look the gfs trough, i told you that thing would cycle back to the weaker run.
And it will stay there ;)
lol white chocolate please
semd me link when you post it thanks
We only have one... How bout a muffin ;)
And a hug (this coming from a mom) ...we all love his enthusiasm!
Tampaspin comes to mind
F5..F5..F5..F5..Fresca..F5..F5..
there is no real problem of having to ring earler
Hey that's my line. >:|
I have noticed that
muffins are more expensive then cookies...they were cut from the budget after the 2009 season when the inactivity made people eat more
You were being too slow so I posted it.
A lot of regular folks come on here for storm information when h-season comes along and a fake advisory is the worst thing you can post on here.
Please refrain from that type of post.
Let me check for some cookies. *Looks in cupboard* Dang it, there's only crow in here... I'll have to save that for later. Sorry!
Navy has it as 02L.Beryl:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
Link
Absolutely, and no birds in the air for 15 1/2hrs.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
D. 33.0N 77.0W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Darn.....;)
...Devils Rangers game...
...Tornado on the ground in KS...
...Tropical Storm Beryl
Look Out LaCrosse:
In a county with 1324 people, but they should be careful:
02L/TS/B/CX
MARK
33.10N74.95W
DUN DUN DUUUUN
So here I am, enjoying the hurricane "offseason," when along come Alberto and Beryl. Here we go again...
I know what you mean ..where does the time/wine go??? Drank a whole bottle of my favorite wine watching 94L become Beryl!
Are we sure Dr. Jeff Masters isn't on vacation? =)
Atlantic to E-pac: Haha....90L in February...91L and 92L in April....ya big lazy...
E-pac to Atlantic: How about I throw out two Invests side-by-side...90E and 91E....and oh yeah...90E becomes Aletta.
Atlantic to E-pac: Fine then...I throw in Alberto
E-pac to Atlantic: Fine....I throw in Bud...which is the strongest hurricane in my territory in May!
Atlantic to E-pac: Take a look at Beryl!!!!
You forgot reruns of "Frasier"!
Which is what I find myself watching while waiting the first advisories...
Most of us never leave. Just shows you how interest ing our lives are. How you doing Galveston?
No, he's not, and that worries me.
No vacations for Jeff till November, got it Dr. Masters?
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260236
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BUD HAS BECOME VERY
DISORGANIZED...WITH NO CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL EXISTS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT...BASED MAINLY ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER 12-24 H...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF BUD. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
A COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE
BUD TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 24 H AND A REMNANT LOW BY 48
H. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN...BUD COULD DISSIPATE FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...
JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 19.7N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.2N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 19.7N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Gotcha!
both cells are tornado warned.
Viewing: 1351 - 1401
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