Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Wont go South of Daytona, Wont go North of Savannah
It'll peak somewhere near 65-70 mph kind of like Arlene, Bret, and Cindy did Last year! xD
I think florida is out of the woods now with the current modeling.
B. 65-70mph.
Remember 90L in 2009?
WHXX01 KWBC 260002
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0002 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120526 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120526 0000 120526 1200 120527 0000 120527 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.3N 74.9W 32.5N 75.5W 32.3N 76.9W 32.3N 79.2W
BAMD 32.3N 74.9W 33.0N 74.8W 32.9N 76.0W 32.7N 78.0W
BAMM 32.3N 74.9W 32.4N 75.2W 32.2N 76.4W 32.0N 78.5W
LBAR 32.3N 74.9W 33.4N 74.1W 33.9N 73.6W 33.9N 73.2W
SHIP 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS 43KTS
DSHP 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120528 0000 120529 0000 120530 0000 120531 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.6N 81.6W 33.9N 84.5W 35.3N 82.3W 35.8N 77.5W
BAMD 32.6N 80.2W 32.3N 83.0W 33.0N 81.7W 36.2N 75.8W
BAMM 32.0N 80.7W 32.6N 83.3W 34.0N 81.4W 36.3N 76.0W
LBAR 33.5N 72.7W 32.0N 71.7W 30.1N 70.5W 29.1N 68.6W
SHIP 40KTS 31KTS 25KTS 28KTS
DSHP 40KTS 28KTS 27KTS 33KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.3N LONCUR = 74.9W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 30.0N LONM12 = 75.6W DIRM12 = 39DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 26.5N LONM24 = 78.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Yep when a storm hits Tampa during the RNC
goodnight and good idea!
this season is not wasting any time getting started
I'll fight that to the best of my abilities... ;D
oh wait! I do remember that little sucker!
thx
Glad to see we're all in agreement here on the blog.
65-75 mph winds is the consensus of everyone.
2007 was very close. There were 3 storms and a 4th low pressure system (which would become TS Barry) prior to June 1st. However, the low that became TS Barry wasn't a tropical storm until 18UTC of June 1st.
SUN :(
Z, Enema
So true. Guess I'll have to do my rides on the Harley in the early part of the weekend, since Jax seems to be in some of the crosshairs.
Love reading and seeing all the stuff you guys post, however, even though half of it goes over my head (actually, being weather, I suppose all of it goes over my head!)
That would probably be the first time to get a May hurricane in a VERY long time. And i don't see it quite happening. But you you never know.
Think the cone will be a bit wider??
WindSat says closed.
Tomorrow? I thought this was third gear?
C. 75 mph
true, With all this pre-season activity, i think we're in for a very quiet June. May still get chris out of the month though.
The Models have been preaching a landfall in North Florida.
Although the land falling point is in North Florida, the Brunt of the Wind and Rain will be felt in Georgia and the Southern Portions of South Carolina.
Expect a Tropical Storm Watch from Daytona Beach,Florida to Charleston, South Carolina
* Tornado Warning for...
Russell County in central Kansas...
* until 915 PM CDT
* at 830 PM CDT... a confirmed tornado was located 5 miles south of
Gorham... and moving northeast at 20 mph.
Hazard... damaging tornado and tennis Ball size hail.
Source... weather spotters confirmed tornado.
Impact... significant house and building damage possible. Mobile
homes completely destroyed if hit. Some trees uprooted or
snapped. Vehicles will likely be thrown by tornadic winds.
* Locations impacted include...
Russell... Gorham... Bunker Hill... Dorrance... Luray... Paradise...
Lucas... Milberger... Russell Airport... Wilson Lake and Waldo.
This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 176 and 205.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
This Tornado Warning replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Warning that
was in effect for the same area.
To repeat... a tornado is on the ground. Take cover now. Move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Lat... Lon 3912 9904 3914 9849 3881 9848 3869 9889
3869 9904 3905 9905
time... Mot... loc 0131z 238deg 17kt 3881 9902
Tornado... observed
hail... 2.50in
We're still getting some lulls.
Yeah...then we could blame it on BHO!
I'll go 70 - 80 mph
Impressive.
No day in the Bahamas is crappy.... come to Tampa.
St Pete Beach
We set a couple record highs today, so it was a perfect beach day. While we do need the rain, quite a few fires breaking out, and highs in Brandon topping out just shy of 100, I wouldn't mind if 94l takes it sweet time, making its turn towards the Fl coast. Businesses could sure use the tourism dollars, and I'm sure people wouldn't mind waiting for some rain for a couple more days.
Wow, Im surprised to how many of those who cast a vote for 75 mph cane.
5 said Tropical storm Beryl
4 Said Hurricane Beryl
that's a close enough vote to me ;)
Gorgeous pic
Satellite says TS winds as well. We're most likely getting STS Beryl at 11.
It's now heading WNW toward the coast as it makes its turn toward the South.
Looks like it will be a rainy, windy night here if 94L keeps on its heading.
yeah i agree, STS at first, but likely will transition to tropical storm overnight.
Grow being the key word here.
In that case, Its a complete toss-up to if the NHC says TS or STS
Look at the Post Below yours, Do you see how large the windfield of this storm is?
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