Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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There you go folks.
Looks like a Landfall around Jacksonville, Florida
Heck of a start to 2012.
You managed to get that as the 1000th post! Nice job.
Come on, Taz!
Looks closed, but can't tell on the NE end.
94L has probably killed already...
& no real surprise Bud went for the laid back resorts..
Yeah must apologize~ I have totally trolled this storm every six years;)
Convection cutting into the dry air.
Perfection!
Some crazy high RC reading in the convection.
94L UPDATE: I am in position to intercept this storm.
And now I have some hard work ahead of me as I set up for a marathon broadcast that will cover the entire history of this storm prior to and during its landfall and subsequent aftermath. WE ARE FULL ON THIS STORM. If you are extreme like Doug and I, you will not want to miss our broadcast. Expect a brief transmission sometime tomorrow, and when the storm is 18 - 12 hours from landfall, we will go non-stop until some time perhaps a day or two later.
Events will be listed on our Ustream.TV channel (xtremehurricanes,) but CrazyMother.TV will be the place to be, especially if you want to hear the pure sound of a landfalling tropical cyclone.
I will be seeing you soon, live from somewhere within the Cone of Doom!
AL942012 - INVEST
What's RC?
What is the record on here for the most comments?
No need to. Very well played and made me actually laugh.
I remember the OG-Bud from 2006. Didn't form until July.
Been here many-a-day.
Can't be worse than Bud's.
Rain Contaminated
Well deserved crow. I wasn't even close to sold on Beryl development at 80%. :P Although I've never seen a 100% fail to develop.
Last year an 80% almost failed to develop and started dropping in percentages...but then it developed at 20%.
9000.
Dag nabbit...the NHC beat me to it...I am putting a blog post together that was also saying 100%.
I am very sure that we will have Subtropical Storm Beryl at 11 PM EDT. Unbelievable folks....unbelievable....
Look for my blog post around 9:45 PM tonight or so. I am betting we'll have an Invest renumber by that time....
Models such as CMC,Nogaps,Euro,Ecwmf are all showing a landfall around Jacksonville,Fl / Georgia/Florida border.
WV loop
1) Nobody had a clue as to the cause of colds and influenzas -- or other contagious diseases -- until after Pasteur pushed the GermTheory, ie after ~1860AD.
2) The discovery of the virus was made in 1892AD. Colds and influenzas are viral diseases.
3) Colds and influenzas have quite different symptoms.
4) It has been proven over and over and over again in studies on human volunteers that damp and/or chill do not increase the likelyhood of catching either a cold or a flu.
You are about to make me puke on my laptop...
I wonder how the U turn will affect Beryl, might help it turning that direction
What was that?
Thanks,
Ralph
Tropical Depression 8 in the EPac.
Looks pretty decent.
11 pm isnt far off, save for da West Coast
45? There is 42mph winds in the bone dry NW quad.
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