Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado
Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.
Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.
Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.
Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.
Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Where are you getting those numbers? It is forecast to be hot there, yes, but I didn't find a single location calling for more than a hot but not extreme 95*F.
Evansville
Paducah
Cape Girardeau
Louisville
Memphis
While I do agree with you that places in the north like the ones listed above are going to be experiencing some very abnormal heat, I just don't see where you are pulling triple digit highs from.
[EDIT] Poor choice of words calling 95*F not extreme for them. While a somewhat regular occurrence further south, it is definitely extreme for places further north like that. My mind was in Texas mode. :P
Guess I should have put all that together & said something sooner..I noticed yesterday morning that was late updating all the models. There has been some form of an underlying some shear maps are wrong debate going on a day or more now here.
Y'all elect someone to E-mail Bob, find out what's up. I'm out for now.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CURRENT-TODAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTHEAST GULF...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD FOR LATE MAY WITH 500MB READINGS AT
MINUS 12 TO 13 CELSIUS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS
PROVIDING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SEND A
BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHICH WOULD INTERACT WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO GET STORMS GOING LOCALLY. STORMS SHOULD
BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL SECTIONS. THIS SHOULD BE QUITE LATE
IN THE DAY THOUGH DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.
ALSO SOME STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH DUE TO EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BOUNDARY INTERACTION. SOME OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THIS CONVECTION TOWARDS
CENTRAL SECTIONS.
NORMALLY WE WOULD BE ANTICIPATING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH STORMS ZIPPERING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCURRING IN CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED.
HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
Evansville
Paducah
Cape Girardeau
Louisville
Memphis
What, you think I make stuff up? ;-)
Dude... he was mocking you.
You've been wishcasting this system for a week, claiming the shear was much lower than reality, and stating it should get better in 12-24 hours for several days now.
Right now, this system has several things against it:
1. High shear. One area is under moderate to low-shear, but most of the system is under high shear (20+ kt)... including the 850mb vort max.
2. Broad circulation. The bigger the circulation, the longer a system will take to organize.
3. A non-stacked low pressure. If you look at the vort maps, they aren't lined up. 850 and 700mb are lined up, but there isn't any 500mb vort near it.
4. No significant thunderstorm activity near the rough CoC. Tropical systems can't survive without thunderstorm activity.
5. Dry air is right next to the system. Anything that spins up will get a heaping helping of dry air from the GOM sucked into it.
6. Most of the thunderstorm activity is being driven by upper divergence. The lower convergence is north of the Cayman Islands, while the center of the upper divergence is south, over the thunderstorm activity off the coast of Nicaragua.
I know you think this thing can get spinning, but it has a LONG way to go before becoming anything worthy of a TD, much less a name. When you are disputing facts with more than half the blog, please consider that someone else may be pointing out something that you've missed. Also, the fact that you are very close to the system would lead to a stronger bias towards development. In other words, you are looking at things more subjectively, rather than objectively. (weather is an objective science)
Japan is one of the most active earthquake regions in the world. It is absolutely astounding that these power plants were ever built. Every scientific mind knows Murphy's law. Before these plants are cleaned up they WILL be knocked down. All the rest of the world can do is shake our heads in amazement!
You mean forecasting is more than making it up?!?! :P
All joking aside, I honestly completely forgot about Intellicast, so all I saw were numbers higher than I was seeing and not knowing where they came from.
I have no problem waiting, but I will point out that you've been saying to wait another 12-24 hours for several days now.
At this rate, we may have a storm from this in July.
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012
WITHOUT RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE
CENTER OF BUD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH DOES KEEP THE CENTER
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MANUAL AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL YIELD AN INTENSITY AROUND 35
KT...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS RETREATING WESTWARD...AND BUD IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF TRACK
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE
MODELS FROM 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. BUD SHOULD STILL TURN
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3 WHEN IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST...BUT SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREVENTING
BUD FROM REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST. THE ECMWF IS THE BIGGEST
OUTLIER ON DAY 3...BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF MODELS...BUT THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS BUD STALLING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ON THOSE DAYS.
APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT OF DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT BUD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER
NORTH. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR CONTINUES TO TONE
DOWN THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
RELATIVELY WARM UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE BIGGEST
LIMITING FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE PEAK INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL
SHOWS BUD REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE STAYING OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH THE COAST.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN ERRORS STILL SHOW
A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 11.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 11.9N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 12.8N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 13.7N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 14.6N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.0N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 18.0N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
broken link
try now.
Link
Shear has decreased according to this!
I don't know is the hurricane at your house yet did you marry her yet
...ALBERTO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
11:00 AM EDT Tue May 2
000
WTNT41 KNHC 221438
TCDAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON ALBERTO.
THE CYCLONE NOW LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
THE REMNANT LOW OF ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR 045/15. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
IDENTITY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 33.1N 74.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0000Z 34.6N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 36.8N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
850mb Vort
Convergence
Wind Shear
true but it hadn't truly let off til monday but now it is
looking bad here again!
We still have some time for the forecast to change, but certain looks like a strong ridge coming in to play again, making it conducive for much above temps.
NWS forecasts seem to be in the middle or near the lower end of forecasts for this coming week, however...
Use Evansville, IN, as an example:
http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;a=USA/IN/Evansvi lle
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/im age_loader.phtml?site=kevv
Max wind speed today 39mph.
it just need some convection which I say should come soon but we just have to wait and see
Link
These Obs would support that!
Right, the lines are a 12-hour trend.
Moving directly into the area of greatest shear. Also, this surface map doesn't match up with the 850mb vort map, which means either one is completely wrong, or the system is completely decoupled between the surface and 850mb vort max.
I agree with you. It has a chance, but not much of one. Its more a curiosity than anything else right now.
Now is a good time to start getting familiar with all of the models (and the links to them) which will be the topic of informed discussions on here for the next several months.
Here is one good link and I sure others will post some additional ones:
Link
it is simpley they put the surface low in the wrong place on the surface map now on visible sat loop plus belize radar loop show the low to be located near 16.5N 86.5W moving east one radar show the circulation a slightly elongated925 vort show it in same location but I am not sure about the vort I will have to wait till the 1500 maps come out
Great post here.
Upper-level pressures...right?
I have a feeling you're right.
Shear tendency is lessening. It would be a day or two for anything to get going. Very strong convection though.
Mornin', Grothar.
I agree it has very strong convection, and it will definitely take some time to get rolling. Shear is its biggest enemy right now.
The GFS, NOPGAPS, and EURO are are calling for development, but at different times this week. It appears NOGAPS wants to move it North faster, but it would appear now, it may be too aggresive. Besides, I am not getting back to Florida until Thursday, so it will have to wait.
LOL.
Yeah, I noticed how the models are all forecasting development. They've been anything but consistent on the timing, which is why I'm so reluctant to agree with anyone saying it should be popping soon. Right now, it is like picking a 10-mile section of freeway, and saying "there will be major traffic here sometime today".
STJ is supposed to slowly lift Nwards through the week as will the shear & moisture with it. Configuration of the STJ will depict where the area will go. NWS has it clipping Extreme SFL ATM.
AHhhh dont listen to quotes from marginal "experts" like Arnie Gundersen...
Link
The surface low is located immediately North of the island of Roatan. I have centered it in this image. The 850 mb vorticity at 4600 feet is displaced well to the NE of the low due to SW shear. Put another way, the circulation is tilted on its axis in height from the SW to the NE. The thing to watch for now is whether the low can spin up and consolidate where it is as shear is relatively low there.
The dos equis guy will not like an american domestic trying to invade his home turf!!! ............................
"I might be mexican but when i drink its from bud!"
`I remember something like this happened last year, cmc AKA the Apocolypse model was picking up on a surface low in the carribean. The main problem is that the main surface low that is trying to form is displace from the anticycolne.
You can clearly see where the strongest vorticity is.
Where you see the "5-10" knot wind shear is the sub-equatorial ridge and as levi posted on facebook, "The axis of the sub-equatorial ridge is still to the south over central America, and as a result, wind shear remains too high for
development."
All in all not a very conducive enviroment for anything to form.
Intresting... None of the local mets are talking about this..
Memorial Day Weekend is a big boost for the tourism down here.. Miami International Airport is expecting over 110,000 passengers a day... If a tropical depression or tropical storm clipped the area. The economy would be hurt.
Yesterday all the models had it over the Bahamas, now they have it between Florida and the Bahamas.
I don't think it will ever reach tropical storm status, as shear will kill it off faster than Alberto.
Thats sad too
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