Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado
Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.
Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.
Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.
Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.
Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Here's a relatively complete table:
Oceanic Ni~no Index by month.
EDIT:
2005 went from a weak El Nino to a neutral phase.
2008 was from La Nina to a neutral phase.
2012 appears to be a La Nina to a neutral phase as well.
I see the honduras low not too well cause it is covered with building convection but still has a goo circulation on all sides movement off to E-ENE at a slower speed that the cuba low located at around located at 17.1N 84.0W running into some lower 10-15kt shear
lets watch it and see what happens
Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.
late
How can you see an exposed low level circulation when the sun went down several hours ago?
You are very welcome...I appreciate all the weather info you share. :-)
T-8DAYS
hi
what are conditions set up to be this year all so what is the high set up do we have this year
In all seriousness probably either a radar glitch or some military chaff dropped in a training exercise.
shortwave IR it work you should give it a try one day
That was one hell of a storm here.
It might feel like it with all of the disturbances, but it definitely isn't, or else 94L would not be feeling wind shear from the subtropical jetstream. The jet is still very much as far south as it is supposed to be in May.
Conditions in the Atlantic are pretty marginal overall, and don't forget that although this year favors in-close developments, which is more dangerous, it also means each storm has less of a chance to become a hurricane. It is harder. 1985 is the glaring exception to this rule, as it was the worst hurricane landfalling season in U.S. history, yet all storms developed very close to land.
I am wondering the same thing
we were at 94L around this time last season.
post 722.No we weren't at 93L until June so yeah..
That map is not really relevant at the moment. Sure you can get an idea however, it changes weekly. Surely the high will be displaced with the ULL and Alberto still clearing the area, check again this weekend. The lower US coast line needs to pay attention to the high pressure in the NE that keeps coming back. 2004 featured a lot of troughs that pulled the storms up but also feature a lot of east coast ridging that sent them back to the coast. Just my 2C
WTPZ32 KNHC 230235
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012
...BUD NOT STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 105.9W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012
THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
BUD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A 2243 UTC TRMM OVERPASS
SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOR HAVE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH ARE AT T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE
LACK OF CHANGE SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT.
IT REMAINS A BIT PUZZLING AS TO WHY BUD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE
CURRENT SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR OVER BUD THAN WHAT THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATERS
AND ENCOUNTERING EVEN LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING. AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR IMPINGING
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN EVEN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AT THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW
FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL
TIMES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12. BUD SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
24-48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AND
TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG
107W AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS BUD
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 72-120 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD COME TO A HALT AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A
PRESUMABLY WEAKER AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOWER SYSTEM BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS WEST.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOW ON
THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 12.9N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.5N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.4N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.5N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Is there a trough in gulf? It's so dry, haven't looked at any maps because im on my iPhone. It actually odd though because its dry here in se la but we keep getting pop ups, real hot too.
Well, Jeanne 04 and Wilma 05 debunked that map, lol. MIA & FLL however are 20 years out.
It looks like there's a nice little ridge over the Gulf right now.
I could see this reaching td status before getting ripped to shreds over Florida and the Bahamas.
Benefitical Rain Maker.
Looks like it will eventually shoot the gap, over Bahamas and S Florida and Cuba.
Seems that they should actualize the DB....
Hurricane strikes by counties 1900-2010
Link
Link
Yep, which for all intents and purposes would likely also push 94L up along the Florida peninsula on its way out as that front moves down south across the gulf coast.
way too N we will just have to wait till sunrise to find out
Check out this outflow boundary hit some rising moist air from earlier storms and pop new thunderstorms!
As of 1052 PM... Miami International Airport has recorded 9.70 inches
of rainfall so far today. This shatters the daily maximum rainfall
record for the Miami area... previously 3.44 inches set back in 1901.
This new record also ranks as the 2nd wettest day recorded in Miami
for the month of may... with continuous records dating back to 1895.
My understanding is that 94l will go ne over Cuba, and south Florida/ bahamas THEN get blocked by the ridge and head west over central Florida into the gulf, into louisiana or Texas.
i know its the nam just for reference
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