Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado
Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.
Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.
Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.
Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.
Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You'd be retired! lol
That is contradicting post 592.
Which Low is doing what ????
That's where I think it will track, yes. Then it'll back towards Florida and into the GOM and then into the gulf coast. Probably just a weak TS though
Did not see that but it makes sense, especially when you look at the barometric readings in this area from earlier on which is what I posted about 3 hours ago.
Of course, don't forget that with sheared systems the area of lowest pressure can jump around and I suspect that is what happened here
Interesting thought ...gonna be fun to watch
it should have been at 17N where the roatan low is now right now it is located at 17N 84.3W
I've been dying to say this: Bud is a dud.
WxGeekVA has the right idea.
Thanks.
The low is very broad at this time. There is no true center so to speak so a difference of a degree does not matter.
I leave you with the remains of Alberto
yes!!!! fits in perfectly
pressure here and in the area are rising
pressures near Honduras are either steady or falling
plus the honduras low is getting a lot less shear that the cuba low so I suspect that by moring pressures should jump around again too the honduras low also we convection that is now increasing with the honduras low as well
right
low in honduras
getting stronger
getting more convection
getting less shear in the range of 10-20kt
stronger circulation
slowly lowering pressures
low in cuba
getting weaker
convection is getting weaker
it is getting a lot more shear about 10-30kt more
circulationg looking weaker
pressures are slowly riseing
ok you get it yet
Roatan pressure is 1010 mbs. Our pressure right now is 1009.3. This disturbance is really nothing to get worked up over.
Exactly
pre-disturb area of convective activity
What is the general consensus here, or is there one, on 94L?
oh my lol
I tried answers.com (backup for all projects) and the question went unasnwered. Hope this isnt due tomorrow, Im big on procastinating though im not gonna lie
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Brantley County in southeast Georgia
northwestern Camden County in southeast Georgia
Glynn County in southeast Georgia
* until 1015 PM EDT
* at 924 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 6 miles west of Waverly... or 11 miles southeast of Nahunta... and moving northeast at 40 mph.
* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Waverly... Waynesville... Thalmann... Dock Junction... Brunswick... Country Club Estates... St. Simons and Sea Island.
I was talking more about the blog.
roatans pressure is rising which is expected as it is moving E-ENE its closer to Puerto Lempira which shows 1009mb as well
but anyway lets watch it overnight and lets seen what the obs show and the conditions ater that
side note can't wait to see what happens when D-Max arrives in the morning
LOL
MARK
17.13N/82.64W
Doubt much comes out of it.
Might not even see a STWO
Do you really expect there to be? lol.
You know you want to dust off that Yukon Cornelius pic, lol.
In post 616 you said pressure near Roatan is steady or falling. Now you say it is rising and that is to be expected ??.
You need to calm down :-)
Might have a chance off the Southeast coastline in a few days as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF. I just don't see it organizing any further while in the Caribbean in face of 20-40 knots of wind shear though.
really don't see that happening sorry we will just have to wait till moring and see what happens
A: yes
B: NO
To make it short it looks sucky and broad.
There are two "lows" trying to fight for it (LOL)
Convection is all scatter brained et cetera
I agree. In the Caribbean, it doesn't have much of a chance. If it can make it across the Greater Antilles and the subtropical jet stream, it will have a much better shot at developing. Still though, it's got a lot of checkpoints to pass.
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Brantley County in southeast Georgia
northwestern Camden County in southeast Georgia
Glynn County in southeast Georgia
* until 1015 PM EDT
* at 924 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 6 miles west of Waverly... or 11 miles southeast of Nahunta... and moving northeast at 40 mph.
* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Waverly... Waynesville... Thalmann... Dock Junction... Brunswick... Country Club Estates... St. Simons and Sea Island.
A.
Not in the Caribbean though.
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