Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado
Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.
Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.
Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.
Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.
Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Just saw this looks like next year ;-(
Link
Twister is temporarily offline due to a firewall problem within the Department of Geography. We expect service to be restored by Tuesday May 22, 2012 and sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this outage has caused.
Updates
The low will be dancing a fine line with the Sub Tropical Jet until the high builds in above. As the STJ lifts north overnight, so will the shear. Ships may not recognize the sharp contrast between 60-70kts in the front yard and 10-20kts in the backyard.
Special Weather Statement
FLZ033-230100-
ST. JOHNS-
816 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL ST.
JOHNS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 900 PM
EDT...
AT 816 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ELKTON...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SPUDS...ELKTON...DUPONT CENTER...SAINT
AUGUSTINE SOUTH...SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...SAINT AUGUSTINE...BUTLER
BEACH...ANASTASIA AND SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH THROUGH 900 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
LAT...LON 2970 8149 2978 8151 2992 8128 2991 8127
2988 8126 2977 8124 2975 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 242DEG 30KT 2977 8143
$$
It's just elongated a fairly weak
With the arrival of Cayman’s early warning weather radar set for July 2012, it is not clear yet how much the Cayman Islands government will spend on the long-awaited Doppler system.
The government is expected to award the contract to construct the tower for radar system this month, and has announced that two German companies will install the digital radar itself and give technical assistance for the duration of the project. It also has an agreement with a regional meteorological body to provide various services before and after the radar is installed.
“It is anticipated that the construction tender will be awarded in December and the tower should be completed by July next year, to coincide with the radar’s arrival. The final phase will be the set-up of equipment within the building and staff training,” Cayman Islands Airports Authority Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Jackson said in a news release.
Not too sure what Bud's problem is... He looks like a mid-strength TS but the winds just aren't there.
he has lots of wind shear overe him right now
also the LLCOC is now getting covered with convection just N of NE honduras and shear is falling aroun 10-15kt and pressures are rising here in cayman as the convection in the area decraeases and the LLC weakens as shear in the W cuba Isle of youth area are running at 30-50kt
generally, You know how all canes hit florida.... Lotta moisture though
Nice spin though, shows promise yet
Link
Looks like somewhere between Texas and Bermuda... What great model agreement!
Sarcasm Flag (ON)
throw it out the door
I guess so... It's just weird that he looks good but in reality he's actually pretty weak.
Lol! I edited the comment because I saw the map had already been posted but you're right... Very useful model run by the BAM series
No, two tracks to TX (one via bragging rights detour to FL) and one to the fish.
This is a TX storm. FL doesn't need the rain, anyway :)
They just do that so that EVERYONE can have a good time .....
:):))
Id also expect that i will eat in the future too
this storm is borriER than Katia.... gosh!
It doesn't look like a 40 mph storm
Lol... I don't care how much of a fish storm it is- A storm like this is NOT boring :)
thank you I told you guys it will happen and a whole load of you did not agree well do you agree now when will 94L be I say NOW
yeah..... i ment it take sooooooooo long to get it together..
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0019 UTC WED MAY 23 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120523 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120523 0000 120523 1200 120524 0000 120524 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 84.3W 19.5N 84.4W 20.4N 84.3W 21.7N 84.5W
BAMD 18.5N 84.3W 20.5N 82.0W 23.4N 79.6W 27.2N 76.9W
BAMM 18.5N 84.3W 20.1N 83.4W 22.0N 82.5W 24.3N 81.9W
LBAR 18.5N 84.3W 19.9N 83.3W 22.4N 82.3W 25.5N 81.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120525 0000 120526 0000 120527 0000 120528 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.1N 84.2W 24.8N 85.3W 25.1N 89.4W 26.4N 94.2W
BAMD 31.1N 73.4W 34.5N 63.6W 32.8N 58.2W 29.4N 54.2W
BAMM 26.8N 81.4W 28.0N 81.1W 26.4N 83.8W 25.4N 87.9W
LBAR 28.9N 79.0W 33.1N 70.9W 32.1N 64.8W 27.8N 64.2W
SHIP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 84.3W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 84.9W DIRM12 = 77DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 130NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
I think it will change
Well
It's right where I put it earlier.
Does anybody know any people Steve Jobs looked up to (besides Mark Zuckerberg?).
So ...does it kind of follow the trough?
You too Largo
: )
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
9:00 AM JST May 23 2012
=================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanvu (998 hPa) located at 15.7N 141.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 18.0N 139.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 20.4N 139.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 22.7N 140.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Additional Information
=======================
Tropical storm will decelerate for the next 24 hours
:It will recurve within 48 hours
:It will move north northwest for the next 48 hours then move north northeast
Tropical Storm will be upgraded to severe tropical storm within 24 hours
Tropical storm will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area
Final Dvorak intensity will be 3.0 after 24 hours
You'd be retired! lol
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