Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

April 2012: Earth's 5th warmest on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:00 PM GMT del 18 Maggio 2012 +30
April 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated April 2012 as the 4th warmest April on record. April 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature was 1.74°C (3.13°F) above the 20th century average, marking the warmest April since records began in 1880. Global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and April 2012 was the 427th consecutive month with ocean temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time the ocean temperatures were below average was September 1976. The increase in global temperatures relative to average compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) was due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, due to the La Niña event that ended in April. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th or 4th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). April temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st to 4th coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during April was 4th smallest in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April in his April 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, national heat records (for warmest April temperature on record) occurred in the United States (a tie), Germany, Austria, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Moldova, Hungry, Croatia, Ukraine, and Slovakia as well as the cities of Moscow and Munich.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2012. The most notable extremes were the warmth observed across Russia, the United States, Alaska, and parts of the Middle East and eastern Europe. There were no land areas with large-scale cold conditions of note. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña officially ends
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately average as of May 13. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. CPC forecasts that neutral conditions will persist though the summer, with a 41% chance of an El Niño event developing in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (blue line) compared to the average (thick grey line.) The record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) is also shown. Arctic sea ice was near average during April, but has fallen well below average during the first half of May. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

April Arctic sea ice extent near average
Arctic sea ice extent was near average in April 2012, the 17th lowest (18th greatest) extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the largest April Arctic sea ice extent since 2001. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic.


Figure 2. Mt. St. Helens in Washington State erupting on May 18, 1980. Image credit: USGS.

Anniversary of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens
Today is the 32nd anniversary of the May 18th, 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens in Washington State. To mark the occasion, NASA has put together a cool Landsat satellite time lapse of 32 years of regrowth of surrounding forest. The USGS has an extensive informational site on the eruption.


Video 1. In Grand Isle, Louisiana last week, a large waterspout came ashore as an EF-1 tornado. The tornado ripped the roof off of the house across the street from this videographer, who should have taken shelter instead of filming the destruction. There's one 4-letter word in the video. Thanks go to Andrew Freedman of Climate Central for posting this.

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back Sunday or Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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401. allancalderini 01:55 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
OMG
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
OMG shear really took a toll in 92E.
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402. aspectre 02:00 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Moved to comment808. Too heavy traffic on this page.
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403. WxGeekVA 02:02 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    


KATRINA
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404. Patrap 02:06 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Uploaded by rdtony on Jun 3, 2007
NOAA P-3 flys into the eyewall of Katrina note pronounced "stadium effect"

Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
405. percylives 02:08 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting RTSplayer:

.....The NHC forecast a catastrophe worse than what actually happened,
.......

Other than that, everyone had to blame "somebody" in our modern day "blame it someone" culture, so fema, Nagin, Blanco, and Bush all got creamed in the media.


If you haven't read Kennedy's "The Great Deluge", you're missing a very good read.

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406. TropicalAnalystwx13 02:11 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting RTSplayer:
Nagin on Katrina.


Reporter's comment:

"Instead of prepping for the hurricane, many people are prepping for a hurricane party."

Even the reporters are noticing people doing the wrong thing about it, and are shocked at their idiocy and complacency.





Truth hurts sometimes.

What is the mayor, governor, or FEMA or president supposed to do with idiots like this?

Notice also his flooding "deluging NOLA" comment.

this was the forecast "Perfect Hurricane," she says.

Land as strong category 4 or 5 storm.


People can keep believing the "Nagin blew it" or "forecasters blew it" lie, or you can look at the facts.

"partying themselves to death..."



Sheppard Smith:

"If the predictions are true, there will be a LOT of dead people in New Orleans tomorrow. There's no question about it..."

Indeed...


This is Nagin later on Gustav...


Stupid people in this world, I swear...bet they learned their lesson afterwards though.

19/0000 UTC 14.4N 113.3W T1.5/2.0 ALETTA -- East Pacific
18/2345 UTC 11.5N 100.4W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific
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407. RTLSNK (Mod) 02:15 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Odd feature off the NC coastline:

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408. Patrap 02:15 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Dr. Jeff Masters as NOAA Flight Met for the NOAA HH Hurricane Gilbert penetration in 1988.

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409. Patrap 02:16 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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410. Tropicsweatherpr 02:21 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stupid people in this world, I swear...bet they learned their lesson afterwards though.

19/0000 UTC 14.4N 113.3W T1.5/2.0 ALETTA -- East Pacific
18/2345 UTC 11.5N 100.4W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific


At least is not in the "Too Weak" category.
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411. WxGeekVA 02:21 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


It's broken off of the front now, but can it detach from the trough?



This was 18Z BTW...
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412. nigel20 02:23 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Jeff Masters as NOAA Flight Met for the NOAA HH Hurricane Gilbert penetration in 1988.

A much younger Dr. Masters...Jamaica really took a beating from Gilbert...from the east of the island right through the west
Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510
413. Patrap 02:25 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
I say we should up the DOOMCON to "Magenta" at least.

Itsa swirling and drifting "WEST"...towards the Carolina's

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414. WxGeekVA 02:28 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    


ASCAT missed but you can clearly see the front...
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415. sunlinepr 02:28 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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416. WxGeekVA 02:30 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting sunlinepr:


Chugga-chugga-choo-choo!!!! The wave train begins!
Member Since: Settembre 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3311
417. Tropicsweatherpr 02:34 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

ALETTA HAS ONE WEAKENING PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SO IT STILL QUALIFIES...ALBEIT BARELY...AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. CONTINUED
STRONG SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AS
SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...045/03...IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN EASTWARD...AND THEN
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 14.5N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 14.5N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/0000Z 14.0N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 13.3N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 12.4N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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418. hydrus 02:38 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:


KATRINA
Rita was a huge storm too. Ranks as the the fourth most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic..
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419. Chucktown 02:39 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
0 Z NAM backs the coastal low towards the SC coast on Sunday.

Link
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420. hydrus 02:42 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Holly Beach was almost completely leveled by Rita's storm surge. In my opinion it was.
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421. sunlinepr 02:44 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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422. nigel20 02:45 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Rita was a huge storm too. Ranks as the the fourth most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic..
Luckily it weakened before landfall...hey hydrus
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423. sunlinepr 02:45 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    




Guaynabo floods today....
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424. hydrus 02:48 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
I have been in a flood like this and it is a nightmare. An aerial view showing floodwaters and destruction left in the aftermath of Hurricane Rita, in an area located near Galveston Bay, Texas (TX).
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425. sunlinepr 02:50 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    


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426. hydrus 02:51 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting nigel20:
Luckily it weakened before landfall...hey hydrus
Greetings..She almost took a piece of Florida..Keys took a licking, but were fortunate.
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427. TropicalAnalystwx13 02:52 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Rita was a huge storm too. Ranks as the the fourth most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic..

...and the most intense Gulf of Mexico hurricane ever recorded.
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428. KoritheMan 02:54 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Just wrote another blog on the tropics.

Back later, I guess. If Diablo 3 doesn't consume my life, that is. >_>
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429. hydrus 02:55 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...and the most intense Gulf of Mexico hurricane ever recorded.
I hope we do not have any of those this year....
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430. hydrus 03:12 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Cat-5 damage.http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/700s/wea00546.jpg<>im g src=Hurricane Andrew - A home in Naranja Lakes in which a fatality occurred The home survived the initial impact of Hurricane Andrew Collapse occurred after passage of eye and reversal of winds
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431. Tropicsweatherpr 03:16 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting sunlinepr:




Guaynabo floods today....


Yes,traffic jams occured everywhere in the San Juan metroflex. Another round is expected for Saturday afternoon.
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432. sunlinepr 03:20 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
27 Storms....

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433. hydrus 03:21 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
A piece of plywood driven through the trunk of a royal palm..Imagine how much power it takes to do this...And those Royal Palms are tough as nails.
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434. hydrus 03:24 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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435. K8eCane 03:25 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
We dont have time for a coastal low in NC. We are too busy worrying about whether John Edwards misappropriated campaign funds.
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436. nigel20 03:26 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Cat-5 damage.http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/700s/wea00546.jpgi m g src=Hurricane Andrew - A home in Naranja Lakes in which a fatality occurred The home survived the initial impact of Hurricane Andrew Collapse occurred after passage of eye and reversal of winds
Hurricane Andrew had one of the most impressive eyewall i've seen on radar...some of the damage may have been caused by miniswirls (eyewall mesovortices). It is reported that the winds may increase by 10% of the remainder of the eyewall.
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437. nigel20 03:26 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
..
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438. hydrus 03:35 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
That was a nice car..Good thing there was no one in it.
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439. tornadodude 03:53 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Only Hurricane I have personally experienced was Irene. I can only imagine what it was like to go through those monsters. Crazy what nature can do.
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440. hydrus 03:57 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting tornadodude:
Only Hurricane I have personally experienced was Irene. I can only imagine what it was like to go through those monsters. Crazy what nature can do.
Hello T.D. I have experienced 4 hurricanes and 8 or 9 tropical storms. My first hurricane being Belle in 1976..It was bad along the Jersey coast.
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441. GeorgiaStormz 03:58 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
When yall get up tomorrow,
Last night at my house:



The anvil really did look like this at sunset.




It did not rain, but the cell was pretty mean looking.
It looked much better in real life.
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442. tornadodude 03:59 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Hello T.D. I have experienced 4 hurricanes and 8 or 9 tropical storms. My first hurricane being Belle in 1976..It was bad along the Jersey coast.


Hey Hydrus,

quite the number there. Must be some crazy stories to tell
Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
443. tornadodude 04:01 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
When yall get up tomorrow,
Last night at my house:



The anvil really did look like this at sunset.




It did not rain, but the cell was pretty mean looking.
It looked much better in real life.


nice looking cell! where was it?
Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
444. hydrus 04:04 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
When yall get up tomorrow,
Last night at my house:



The anvil really did look like this at sunset.




It did not rain, but the cell was pretty mean looking.
It looked much better in real life.
Cool pics..Thank you for them,,:)
Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14220
445. hydrus 04:06 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting tornadodude:


Hey Hydrus,

quite the number there. Must be some crazy stories to tell
Hopefully I wont add to the few I have..I am tired of storms.They are interesting to be sure, but I like quiet now.
Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14220
446. nigel20 04:09 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Hello T.D. I have experienced 4 hurricanes and 8 or 9 tropical storms. My first hurricane being Belle in 1976..It was bad along the Jersey coast.
You've been through many storms and hurricanes. Which was the most scary for you?
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447. tornadodude 04:11 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Hopefully I wont add to the few I have..I am tired of storms.They are interesting to be sure, but I like quiet now.


haha I can understand that
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448. HurricaneDean07 04:12 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
The surface trough looks very impressive, organization-wise. The only thing that needs to happen is it to degenerate and consolidate the small trough attatched, and survive. It has the subtropical characteristics needed to be named...
92E has became a bust, and the Caribbean system looks to not be showing up yet. Pre93L loos to be the only thing available to watch now.
See everyone is reminiscing about the big storms of the past.
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449. Jebekarue 04:17 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Hydrus that pic with the giant air handler was taken in the parking lot of the Pensacola Civic Center after Ivan. It blew off the top of the civic center. That bridge in the background of the pic is the I 110 bridge that runs by the civic center
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450. hydrus 04:20 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting nigel20:
You've been through many storms and hurricanes. Which was the most scary for you?
Charley and Jeanne. Both in 2004. Charley practically destroyed our house and cottage. The real bad stuff only lasted an hour. It was horrible. We had no power for 17 days. We managed to find some of our things and try to get somewhat back to normal. Then Frances did a little damage, there really was not much left to damage, but Jeanne turned out to be an absolute nightmare. it started getting bad about 2;30 a.m., and did not let up for 14 hours. Completely tearing apart the few things we were able to put back together. It was heartbreaking to see my parents and the people in my area lose the few things they had left. ..Really bad times. As soon as I learn how to post my pictures, I will share them... Hard to put into words what it was like taking the photo,s. I snapped some pics after Andrew too, but the film was ruined.
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451. hydrus 04:25 AM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting Jebekarue:
Hydrus that pic with the giant air handler was taken in the parking lot of the Pensacola Civic Center after Ivan. It blew off the top of the civic center. That bridge in the background of the pic is the I 110 bridge that runs by the civic center
Lol..That Cadillac does have some newer looking features on it . It did come from the Andrew photo page.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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