April 2012: Earth's 5th warmest on record
April 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated April 2012 as the 4th warmest April on record. April 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature was 1.74°C (3.13°F) above the 20th century average, marking the warmest April since records began in 1880. Global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and April 2012 was the 427th consecutive month with ocean temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time the ocean temperatures were below average was September 1976. The increase in global temperatures relative to average compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) was due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, due to the La Niña event that ended in April. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th or 4th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). April temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st to 4th coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during April was 4th smallest in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April in his April 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, national heat records (for warmest April temperature on record) occurred in the United States (a tie), Germany, Austria, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Moldova, Hungry, Croatia, Ukraine, and Slovakia as well as the cities of Moscow and Munich.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2012. The most notable extremes were the warmth observed across Russia, the United States, Alaska, and parts of the Middle East and eastern Europe. There were no land areas with large-scale cold conditions of note. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
La Niña officially ends
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately average as of May 13. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. CPC forecasts that neutral conditions will persist though the summer, with a 41% chance of an El Niño event developing in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (blue line) compared to the average (thick grey line.) The record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) is also shown. Arctic sea ice was near average during April, but has fallen well below average during the first half of May. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
April Arctic sea ice extent near average
Arctic sea ice extent was near average in April 2012, the 17th lowest (18th greatest) extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the largest April Arctic sea ice extent since 2001. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic.
Figure 2. Mt. St. Helens in Washington State erupting on May 18, 1980. Image credit: USGS.
Anniversary of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens
Today is the 32nd anniversary of the May 18th, 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens in Washington State. To mark the occasion, NASA has put together a cool Landsat satellite time lapse of 32 years of regrowth of surrounding forest. The USGS has an extensive informational site on the eruption.
Video 1. In Grand Isle, Louisiana last week, a large waterspout came ashore as an EF-1 tornado. The tornado ripped the roof off of the house across the street from this videographer, who should have taken shelter instead of filming the destruction. There's one 4-letter word in the video. Thanks go to Andrew Freedman of Climate Central for posting this.
Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back Sunday or Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The best place to view it in the U.S will be in New Mexico.
The top ascat #155 show a much tighter defined low than this one from last night.
The shape of the coastline is going to help tighten the low pressure area, so we can't give it too much credit. It's hard to tighten (strengthen) a low too much with no thunderstorm activity. I think it's going to hang around a while, so if the shear relaxes over the next few days we may have to watch it more closely. It also needs to get a nudge to the east away from land.
Yeah, and the president would declare a Global War on Weather.
Wish I could have found a map which also contained the IceShelf grounding-lines. As bappit pointed out, if there ain't a LOT of ice pressing downward on the land or seabed now, the edge areas are gonna sink as isostatic rebound completes itself.
eg Large areas of the ice-shelves on the WeddelSea, the RossSea, and etc are floating, not grounded
000
FXUS62 KMFL 181844
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL UP AND BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING DEEP LAYER
RIDGE. HOWEVER...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY GFS SHOWS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE MOVING ACROSS S. FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME WL KEEP SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
253 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012
FLZ071-072-172-181930-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL
253 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT
* AT 248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES WEST OF SAWGRASS MILLS MALL...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
SAWGRASS MILLS MALL...
PLANTATION...
SUNRISE...
TAMARAC...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
LAT...LON 2625 8020 2615 8013 2608 8036 2616 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 236DEG 6KT 2616 8032
$$
GREGORIA
What 92E is dealing with right now is some moderate wind shear. I mentioned in my blog last night that the CIMSS shear product analyzed too high, but I guess it didn't. Now, the SHIPS forecast model did show a spike in shear around this time, so that is what is giving 92E problems right now, but it is forecast to weaken soon.
I can vouch for this..absolutely pouring in western Sunrise right now, near the I-595/I-75 exchange. Very dark out. Not much lightning in my part of town, but I've seen a few bolts.
Current Weather
Building Storms
Temp 96.4
Trend +3.1
Heat Index 107.1
Dew Point 72.7
Humidity 49
Apparent Temp 105.1
Wind N 5 MPH
It seems like isostatic rebound would be so great that the ultimate sea level rise would be affected. Over tens of thousands of years after the Antarctic Ice Sheets melted away global sea level might rise another 50 feet as Antarctica's isostatic rebound displaced the temporary seas above it.
And if Antarctica rose so much, what other places would then fall? I guess those second-order effects would primarily be in the seabed around the Antarctic continent.
Comment 162: Could be a nasty late spring noreaster. Rain of course not snow.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 10 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-23W
It has some serious dry air issues too, with the outflow boundaries (arc clouds) all over the NW quadrant.
1012mb is what it looks like.
That isnt going to be more than a normal Low pressure system.
I'm not sure why. The atmosphere isn't really that dry at all. In fact...
700-500 MB RH 74 73 76 79 79 79 76 75 75 75 71 67 69
SHEAR (KT) 26 20 17 17 18 16 13 12 12 14 13 14 13
Should be favorable for strengthening for the rest of the forecast period excluding today.
A tiny tropical twist.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012
FLC011-182115-
/O.CON.KMFL.FA.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-120518T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BROWARD FL-
344 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012
...THE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...
AT 341 PM EDT...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE FROM THE SUNRISE AREA
EAST TO OAKLAND PARK WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 3 OR MORE INCHES AN
HOUR. ALREADY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS AREAS FROM
SUNRISE TO OAKLAND PARK.
A SOUTH FLORIDA DISTRICT WATER MANAGEMENT GUAGE HAS RECORDED
2.39 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT THE PAST HOUR.
SHOULD THIS TORRENTIAL RAIN CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
LAT...LON 2617 8009 2615 8010 2613 8009 2612 8010
2608 8053 2625 8039 2624 8008
$$
GREGORIA
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC061-127-182230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0024.120518T1929Z-120518T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST FRI MAY 18 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYNABO
SAN JUAN
* UNTIL 630 PM AST
* AT 315 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS GUAYNABO AND SAN JUAN...WHICH IS LEADING TO RAPID RISES IN
THE RIO PIEDRAS AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FLASH
FLOODING NEAR THE RIO PIEDRAS AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IN SAN JUAN
THROUGH AT LEAST 630 PM AST.
DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART
CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1843 6610 1845 6608 1841 6604 1834 6604
1832 6604 1832 6611 1836 6612
$$
ER/BCS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
@JimCantore):
A great BIG Congratulations to @TWCDrKnabb for being named the 11th Director of the National Hurricane Center. #weather
No way! Good for him, and great choice!
So who is going to take his place at The Weather Channel?
Link
Dr. Rick Knabb, The Weather Channel's resident hurricane expert, has been named the new director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Dr. Knabb joined The Weather Channel in May 2010 and shared his expertise with TWC's audience through the 2010 and 2011 hurricane seasons.
Dr. Knabb, who was raised the Fort Lauderdale area, said he is excited about his new position and is aware of the importance of the role.
"I had enough time at the Hurricane Center to know what the job involves. That includes being available for television networks. Chances are, you'll still see me a lot on The Weather Channel still," Dr. Knabb said.
Bob Walker, executive vice president and general manger, networks and content of TWCC, congratulated Dr. Knabb on his new position.
"Rick%u2019s expertise and skill in forecasting and his passion for communicating the science behind tropical weather made him a great addition to our expert team. While we hate to see Rick leave The Weather Channel, it%u2019s just another example of the fact that some of the best people working in weather can be found at TWCC," Walker said.
Dr. Knabb said he will miss his Weather Channel colleagues. "They are real people with families doing a very difficult job. TV is hard, and I respect what they do everyday."
There's such a thing as a weather channel?
Hibernation over for you?
Well, now that there has been a tropical cyclone, I guess so! Nice to see you back.
Yep it's amazing how many people talk about how valuable gold is and fail to see that top soil (and water for that matter) is much more valuable. For electronics manufacturing gold is better, but I've yet to see someone grow food out of a gold bar.
P.S. got a question for some people out there who might be in ag. I've been wanting to go back to school and am really interested in agriculture since I've worked in farming before and really have a knack for understanding plants and soil and such. Any thoughts on a good field in ag that is really in demand (or will be)?
I don't think it has been decided yet.
It will probably be Bryan Norcross if I had to guess.
What about Bryan Norcross?
Tiny is for sure. I've seen better, and more defined twists in drinks that have umbrellas.
Dave Miller, 202-482-0013 May 18, 2012
Rick Knabb, Ph.D., selected to lead NOAA’s National Hurricane Center
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., today announced Rick Knabb, Ph.D., as the next director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. Knabb will start his duties on June 4.
“When hurricanes threaten our coastal communities, those in harm’s way look to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for life-saving information,” said Lubchenco. “Rick personifies that calm, clear and trusted voice that the nation has come to rely on. Rick will also lead our hurricane center team and work closely with federal, state and local emergency management authorities to ensure the public is prepared to weather the storm.”
Knabb returns to NOAA after most recently serving as the on-air tropical weather expert for The Weather Channel in Atlanta since May 2010. Prior to that, Knabb was deputy director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, and before that, he had a distinguished career at the National Hurricane Center in Miami as a senior hurricane specialist and the science and operations officer.
Knabb succeeds Bill Read who retires June 2. “I thank Bill Read for his tireless work throughout his distinguished career with the National Weather Service, including more than four years as director of the National Hurricane Center overseeing 63 tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin alone,” added Lubchenco.
Born just outside of Chicago, Knabb grew up in Coral Springs, Fla., near Ft. Lauderdale, and in Katy, Texas in suburban Houston. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science from Purdue University and holds a master’s degree and Ph.D. in Meteorology from Florida State University.
"I'm ready to reunite with the talented staff at the National Hurricane Center and to work with all of our partners to prepare everyone for the next hurricane,” said Knabb. “Personal preparedness will be critically important, including for my own family and home."
The National Hurricane Center is a component of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The Center’s mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards, enabling communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. The National Hurricane Center is co-located with the National Weather Service Miami-South Florida forecast office on the campus of Florida International University.
The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, the National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.
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