Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

April 2012: Earth's 5th warmest on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:00 PM GMT del 18 Maggio 2012 +30
April 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated April 2012 as the 4th warmest April on record. April 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature was 1.74°C (3.13°F) above the 20th century average, marking the warmest April since records began in 1880. Global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and April 2012 was the 427th consecutive month with ocean temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time the ocean temperatures were below average was September 1976. The increase in global temperatures relative to average compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) was due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, due to the La Niña event that ended in April. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th or 4th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). April temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st to 4th coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during April was 4th smallest in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April in his April 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, national heat records (for warmest April temperature on record) occurred in the United States (a tie), Germany, Austria, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Moldova, Hungry, Croatia, Ukraine, and Slovakia as well as the cities of Moscow and Munich.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2012. The most notable extremes were the warmth observed across Russia, the United States, Alaska, and parts of the Middle East and eastern Europe. There were no land areas with large-scale cold conditions of note. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña officially ends
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately average as of May 13. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. CPC forecasts that neutral conditions will persist though the summer, with a 41% chance of an El Niño event developing in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (blue line) compared to the average (thick grey line.) The record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) is also shown. Arctic sea ice was near average during April, but has fallen well below average during the first half of May. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

April Arctic sea ice extent near average
Arctic sea ice extent was near average in April 2012, the 17th lowest (18th greatest) extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the largest April Arctic sea ice extent since 2001. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic.


Figure 2. Mt. St. Helens in Washington State erupting on May 18, 1980. Image credit: USGS.

Anniversary of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens
Today is the 32nd anniversary of the May 18th, 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens in Washington State. To mark the occasion, NASA has put together a cool Landsat satellite time lapse of 32 years of regrowth of surrounding forest. The USGS has an extensive informational site on the eruption.


Video 1. In Grand Isle, Louisiana last week, a large waterspout came ashore as an EF-1 tornado. The tornado ripped the roof off of the house across the street from this videographer, who should have taken shelter instead of filming the destruction. There's one 4-letter word in the video. Thanks go to Andrew Freedman of Climate Central for posting this.

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back Sunday or Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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751. hydrus 04:45 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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752. tropicfreak 04:45 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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753. Patrap 04:45 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Agreed. What do you think is most likely?


Well, we noticed it detach from the Front yesterday and it was in the perfect "Null" area to fester, and when a system has the Marginal SST's, a good cyclonic Sig at the surface, I gotta go with a TD in the formative stage, with potential of becoming a TS.
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
754. MiamiHurricanes09 04:46 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If named it will be tropical. What's up Miami?
It appears so, intense convective activity over the circulation usually constitutes towards a more rapid transition into tropical nature.

Doing great! How's it been going in the blog over the past few months?

Quoting Ameister12:
Hi MH09. How's it going?
Doing great, Ameister; how have you been doing?
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755. Patrap 04:47 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Home brew looks to keep us on our toes early I'd say.

Kudo's to those who saw it last evening and stayed on it.
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756. yqt1001 04:47 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
The gulf stream is really helping 93L. The convection might actually survive a decent amount of time unlike in 92L.





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757. Stormchaser2007 04:48 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
14z HRRR

80-knot gusts

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758. WxGeekVA 04:48 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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759. Patrap 04:48 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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760. TropicalAnalystwx13 04:49 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It appears so, intense convective activity over the circulation usually constitutes towards a more rapid transition into tropical nature.

Doing great! How's it been going in the blog over the past few months?

Doing great, Ameister; how have you been doing?

Oh, you know, the regular climate change debates. We've actually seen very little trolls.
Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25354
761. Ameister12 04:49 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It appears so, intense convective activity over the circulation usually constitutes towards a more rapid transition into tropical nature.

Doing great! How's it been going in the blog over the past few months?

Doing great, Ameister; how have you been doing?

I've been doing good. I'm very excited about hurricane season coming up soon.
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762. Patrap 04:51 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

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763. BaltimoreBrian 04:51 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
I think the high pressure will build to the north and drive it WSW for a while. To around 32 N 80 W by this time tomorrow.
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764. weatherh98 04:51 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
The gulf steam will be able to keep the flow of warm water pumping into the system
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765. MiamiHurricanes09 04:51 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hey Miami! Glad to see you aboard for another season, looking forward to it. This appears to a purely tropical system. The main factor here is going to be time, how much can it intensify before it makes landfall along the US coast? The NHC is going to be looking for consistency in convection, which will probably take a few more hours, but they'll probably be quicker to declare 93L because it's closer to the coast compared to 92L which was in the middle of nowhere (though, was probably a sub-tropical storm IMO)
What's up Teddy? Glad to be back for the season!

Convective persistence will be very important in the development of this system. We'll have to see how it reacts to the upcoming diurnal minimum since it is still a rather weak feature, and if it will be able to maintain convective activity (and fire some too) into the night hours. Classification by tonight seems very plausible, should convection persist, of course.
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
766. carolinabelle 04:52 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Hey all! So, 93L, huh? Don't usually pay much attention this early in the season, but sitting in the Charleston area, can't help but be a little curious about this one! Will be interesting to see what happens over the next 24h.
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767. WxGeekVA 04:54 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    



And now, let the screaming about Rapid Intensification begin!
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768. MrstormX 04:54 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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769. Hurricanes101 04:54 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
not being able to access the atcf site information is very frustrating
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770. SouthDadeFish 04:54 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Hi everyone, I put together a blog entry on 93L and did my best to simplify the complex process of 93L becoming a "warm-core" cyclone. I would especially recommend it for anyone who is getting confused by this process and terminology. I also talk about track and intensity forecasts.

For anyone interested: Link
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771. Patrap 04:55 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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772. Ameister12 04:55 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
What a pretty looking invest.
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773. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 04:55 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
32.25N/77.47W
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659
774. MiamiHurricanes09 04:55 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, you know, the regular climate change debates. We've actually seen very little trolls.
No trolls is great to see, climate change debates not so much LOL. Good to see you're still around.

Quoting Ameister12:

I've been doing good. I'm very excited about hurricane season coming up soon.
Great to hear! Seems as if this upcoming season will be somewhat lackluster, but that's always great from the layman perspective. You know how the ol' saying goes, though: "it only takes one".
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
775. nigel20 04:55 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
May 19, 2012

Daily SOI: -0.29
30 day SOI: 2.60
Link
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776. Patrap 04:55 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
NHC Director Knabb will have a Busy Day with his co-horts seems
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777. washingtonian115 04:56 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
I'm surprised HYPU!weather hasn't paid any attention to this.Instead their to busy blabbing about the eclipse.
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778. hydrus 04:56 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Like Pat said tho, water near the coast is cool. If it turns out to be a hybrid system, it may have a chance to through some high winds and seas to the Carolina,s. Some areas had had a lot of rain, and flooding is possible in some areas.
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779. weatherh98 04:57 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Somebody has to say it.

Florida hit?!?! :)
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780. Patrap 04:59 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Im sure that any Fla Strike must first have the Guv'na's team look it over before he makes a decision to allow the storm to Strike.

He is Skeletor ya know?
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781. wunderkidcayman 04:59 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
NHC Director Knabb will have a Busy Day with his co-horts seems
when?
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782. WxGeekVA 05:00 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Where are the NHC floaters?
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783. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:00 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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784. JrWeathermanFL 05:00 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting weatherh98:
Somebody has to say it.

Florida hit?!?! :)

I was gonna say that! lol
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785. Patrap 05:01 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Where are the NHC floaters?


Here

AL932012 - INVEST
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786. Patrap 05:01 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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787. WxGeekVA 05:03 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


Here

AL932012 - INVEST


I was talking about here, but still thanks!

Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters
Member Since: Settembre 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323
788. AllStar17 05:04 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Nice to see a lot of people coming back! Seems we could have an early start to the Atlantic Season!

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

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789. hydrus 05:05 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
High pressure expected to build over the S.E.U.S in a week or so.
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790. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:06 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
No Active Tropical Warnings
May-19-12, 1:00:01 PM | Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)
As of Sat, 19 May 2012 17:00:01 GMT
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791. nigel20 05:07 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
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792. pottery 05:07 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, you know, the regular climate change debates. We've actually seen very little trolls.

Very little trolls are the Absolute worst kind....
Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20718
793. washingtonian115 05:07 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
High pressure expected to build over the S.E.U.S in a week or so.
What does that mean?
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794. WxGeekVA 05:08 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    


Well, the eye wasn't just a short lived temporary feature....
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795. ScottLincoln 05:10 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
What does that mean?


In regards to what?
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796. Hurricanes101 05:10 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Also everytime I go to the atcf site, even the ones that have been linked in here the last few days, it shows last years information


Is there a site that has coordinates like the atcf that is more reliable?
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797. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 05:11 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
798. HurrikanEB 05:11 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Like Pat said tho, water near the coast is cool. If it turns out to be a hybrid system, it may have a chance to through some high winds and seas to the Carolina,s. Some areas had had a lot of rain, and flooding is possible in some areas.


For the month, Wilmington has been about on target for their average rainfall-- looks like they picked up about an inch in the last few days. But according to this week's drought monitor, a little bit more may not be such a bad thing, especially since it's a small system-- granted that it's down in FL/GE/SC that really needs it. But, that southeast corner of coastal NC is technically in a light-moderate drought too.
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799. HurricaneDean07 05:11 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well, the eye wasn't just a short lived temporary feature....

Most tropical cyclones have an eye deature on radar. This is just another example
Member Since: Ottobre 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4054
800. cg2916 05:11 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
Hello everybody!

Wow, the tropics are already heating up. This one's close to home. Man, am I sure glad that I'm not going to the beach for another 2 weeks!
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801. SouthDadeFish 05:11 PM GMT del 19 Maggio 2012    
It looks like the upper-level low to the NE of 93L is starting to scoot off to the NE:

Link
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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