April 2012: Earth's 5th warmest on record
April 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated April 2012 as the 4th warmest April on record. April 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature was 1.74°C (3.13°F) above the 20th century average, marking the warmest April since records began in 1880. Global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and April 2012 was the 427th consecutive month with ocean temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time the ocean temperatures were below average was September 1976. The increase in global temperatures relative to average compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) was due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, due to the La Niña event that ended in April. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th or 4th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). April temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st to 4th coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during April was 4th smallest in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April in his April 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, national heat records (for warmest April temperature on record) occurred in the United States (a tie), Germany, Austria, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Moldova, Hungry, Croatia, Ukraine, and Slovakia as well as the cities of Moscow and Munich.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2012. The most notable extremes were the warmth observed across Russia, the United States, Alaska, and parts of the Middle East and eastern Europe. There were no land areas with large-scale cold conditions of note. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
La Niña officially ends
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately average as of May 13. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. CPC forecasts that neutral conditions will persist though the summer, with a 41% chance of an El Niño event developing in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (blue line) compared to the average (thick grey line.) The record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) is also shown. Arctic sea ice was near average during April, but has fallen well below average during the first half of May. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
April Arctic sea ice extent near average
Arctic sea ice extent was near average in April 2012, the 17th lowest (18th greatest) extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the largest April Arctic sea ice extent since 2001. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic.
Figure 2. Mt. St. Helens in Washington State erupting on May 18, 1980. Image credit: USGS.
Anniversary of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens
Today is the 32nd anniversary of the May 18th, 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens in Washington State. To mark the occasion, NASA has put together a cool Landsat satellite time lapse of 32 years of regrowth of surrounding forest. The USGS has an extensive informational site on the eruption.
Video 1. In Grand Isle, Louisiana last week, a large waterspout came ashore as an EF-1 tornado. The tornado ripped the roof off of the house across the street from this videographer, who should have taken shelter instead of filming the destruction. There's one 4-letter word in the video. Thanks go to Andrew Freedman of Climate Central for posting this.
Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back Sunday or Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It likely is.
On radar, it's very slowly approaching the coast, but steering patterns will shift some before 93L can come ashore. It's one nice system, impressed by it much more than 92L.
NEXRAD Radar
Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation
Range 124 NMI
It is going to wobble around all day.
Touche. lol But yes!
Oh For Gods Sake Pat! I have to give a SHOUTOUT to Pat and Paul and everyone with the PORTLIGHT organization. You guys are awesome . They were right there for me last year if i had needed them
BUT could the COC at least clip eastern NC? Some models have 93L doing that.
Will never forget that sucker here in Richmond VA
I'd be in the NE quadrant.
Did they say subtropical
That would be a puzzle for meteorologists and climatologists everywhere, a landfalling hurricane on May 19 in only semi-warm waters. I doubt it would happen, but if it did I imagine it would stump many experts and even alter perspectives on hurricane formation.
They're thinking tropical.
1. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
Nope
AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
Chatter is on the Marine Bands, be advised, Possible TD to TS forming S of Wilmington, East of Charleston.
Seek safe Harbor if in a Vessel that cannot take 8ft Seas along this systems Path.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191556
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
Probably won't happen, but still interesting.
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
952 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM AND SAVANNAH GA TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR AND GRAYS
REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
AMZ350-200500-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
952 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
.REST OF TODAY...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING N 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN
THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
MARINERS ARE REMINDED THAT WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.
Let's just hope it doesn't become another Gaston here in Richmond, bad memories with that storm. Just want a nice all day soaker to make up our 2-3" deficit.
If named it will be tropical. What's up Miami?
excellent. reminder
THE CHART
ironically, we are in that slight spike
Agreed. What do you think is most likely?
dead pretty much half got sucked into the GOH and half of that stayed one E pac coast and the other half got sucked into another area of convection just w of Nic
..click image for Loop.
Zoom is available
93L: Will this be what we have been waiting for? Or long story short ALBERTO?!?!
Hey Miami! Glad to see you aboard for another season, looking forward to it. This appears to a purely tropical system. The main factor here is going to be time, how much can it intensify before it makes landfall along the US coast? The NHC is going to be looking for consistency in convection, which will probably take a few more hours, but they'll probably be quicker to declare 93L because it's closer to the coast compared to 92L which was in the middle of nowhere (though, was probably a sub-tropical storm IMO)
Just ask the Capitol Weather Gang!
Looks like a minimal Tropical Storm to me
Viewing: 701 - 751
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