The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: a book review
No climate scientist has been subject to more attacks on their science and character than Penn State's Michael Mann, originator of the famed "hockey stick" graph of Earth's temperature history. Dr. Mann has an excellent new book called "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines" that takes the reader on a fascinating journey to the front lines the high-stakes battles between climate scientists and their detractors. It's a must-read for every serious student of Earth's climate. Along the way, you'll learn about tree rings, the IPCC process, the fossil fuel industry's savvy PR campaigns to discredit climate change science, and get an insider's view of the notorious stolen emails of "climategate."
For those unfamiliar with the "hockey stick", the shape of the graph showing Earth's temperature has a long, relatively flat portion representing the period 1000 AD - 1800 AD--the shaft of the hockey stick--followed by a sharp upward rise that began in the late 1800s and continues to this day--the blade of the hockey stick. When Dr. Mann first published the hockey stick graph in papers he wrote in 1998 and 1999, it quickly became a central icon in the climate change debate. As he writes in "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars," the hockey stick graph "told an easily understood story with a simple picture: that a sharp and highly unusual rise in atmospheric warming was occurring on Earth." Contrarians bent on discrediting the science of climate change have fiercely attacked the hockey stick, attempting to portray it as the key piece of evidence upon which all of climate change science depends (which is not correct, since many different data sets unrelated to the tree ring studies under attack show a hockey stick-like shape.) The contrarians have adopted "the Serengeti strategy" towards Dr. Mann--"a tried-and-true tactic of the climate change denial campaign...isolate individual scientists just as predators on the Serengeti Plain of Africa hunt their prey: picking off vulnerable individuals from the rest of the herd."
The history of the hockey stick
The book starts with some interesting background on Dr. Mann's career. He got into climate science by accident--while working on his Ph.D. in physics at Yale, funding got tight, and he elected to switch to the Department of Geology and Geophysics, where funding to perform research on natural climate cycles was available. In the mid-1990s, while working on his Ph.D., he helped discover the decades-long natural cycle of alternating warm and cool ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean thought to be responsible for the active hurricane period that began in 1995. He gave the phenomenon the now widely-used name, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), during an impromptu interview with science writer Dick Kerr. After receiving his Ph.D. in 1996, Dr. Mann moved on into using statistical methods to study past climate, as gleaned from tree ring studies. He takes the reader on a 5-page college-level discussion of the main technique used, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and shows how his famed "hockey stick" graph came about. It's one of the best descriptions I've seen on how PCA works (though it will be too technical for some.) His inaugural PCA work showing that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least the past 600 years was published in 1998. Since the paper coincidentally happened to be published on Earth Day during the warmest year in Earth's history, the paper received a huge amount of media attention. His follow-up 1999 paper went further, suggesting that the 1990s were the warmest decade in the past 1,000 years, and 1998 was the warmest year. Dr. Mann was appointed as one of the lead authors of the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the massive United Nations summary of climate change science that comes out every six years. We learn some interesting details about the approval process for the 2001 IPCC report, like the fact for two days, the scientists haggled with the Saudi Arabian delegation about one word in the Summary for Policy Makers. The IPCC report's summary requires unanimous approval by all nations, and the Saudis objected to the language that said, "the balance of evidence suggests an appreciable human influence on climate." They debated 30 different alternatives before finally settling on the language, "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on climate."
Figure 1. The hockey stick graph as it appeared in the IPCC Third Assessment Report WG1 (2001) summary, Figure 2.20, Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records are shown in blue, and instrumental data in red, from AD 1000 to 1999. The grey shaded region indicates the uncertainty in the annual temperature estimates (there is a 95% certainty that the temperature for any given year lies in the gray shaded region.) The thick black line is a smoothed version which highlights the long-term variations. A similar version of this graph appeared in Dr. Mann's original 1999 paper. Climate scientist Dr. Jerry Mahlman was responsible for giving this graph the nickname, the "hockey stick".
The battle begins
The majority of the book focuses on the battles over the hockey stick that ensued in 1998, as soon as Dr. Mann published his research. He writes: For more than a decade, the scientific community, in its effort to communicate the threat of climate change, has had to fight against the headwind of this industry-funded disinformation effort. The collective battles are what I term the "Climate wars". The battle raged furiously through 2006, when an extensive review of the hockey stick was performed by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS)--an organization founded in 1863 by Abraham Lincoln to "investigate, examine, experiment, and report upon any subject of science" for the purpose of informing government policy. The NAS reaffirmed the validity of the hockey stick, concluding: "based on the analyses presented in the original papers by Mann et al. and this new supporting evidence, the committee finds it plausible that the Northern Hemisphere was warmer during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period over the preceding millennium." Dr. Mann writes, "One might think that this would have put an end to the accusations once and for all. But one would be wrong."
In November 2009, a few weeks before the December international climate summit in Copenhagen, the RealClimate.org website that Dr. Mann contributes to was hacked into, and a file with emails stolen from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was posted. Dr. Mann explains in detail how these "climategate" emails were taken out context and distorted to appear scandalous by "a massive public relations campaign conducted by major players in the climate change denial movement." To illustrate, he gives the example of Isaac Newton's writings, which can easily be taken out context and distorted to give the impression that he was guilty of "conspiring to avoid public scrutiny," "insulting dissenting scientists," "manipulation of evidence," "knowingly publishing scientific fraud," "suppression of evidence," "abusing the peer review system," and "insulting critics." In the end, no evidence of scientific misconduct was found by any of the five independent reviews of the affair, conducted by the UK Parliament, a CRU commission led by eminent geoscientist Lord Oxburgh, Penn State University, the National Science Foundation Office of the Inspector General, and the University of East Anglia. As a result of "climategate", nothing at all changed in the peer-reviewed scientific literature on climate change. It was a phony scandal.
A fierce advocate of good science
As I read the book, I was impressed by Dr. Mann's tremendous passion for science and knowledge that comes through. He loves figuring out how things work, and stands in fierce opposition to shoddy science and anti-science political attacks. I had the opportunity to sit down over a beer and talk with him at a recent conference, and he had little interest in talking politics. He'd much rather talk about science, and we had a great discussion about hurricanes--he's published several papers that use statistical techniques to estimate how many tropical storms we missed counting in the Atlantic before the advent of satellites. He frequently talks about how science works and the importance of following the scientific method in his book: "The scientific process--left to operate freely--is inherently self-correcting, even if the gears may at times turn more slowly than we would like...Scientists must be allowed to follow the path along which their intellectual inquiries take them, even if their findings and views might appear inconvenient to outside special interests." In the end, Dr. Mann is "cautiously optimistic" that humanity can meet the challenge of climate change, but acknowledges that climate scientists are in a "street fight" against well-funded climate change disinformers bent on obscuring the science.
Conclusion: five stars out of five
The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines is a must-read for every serious student of climate change science, and gets my highest rating: five stars out of five. The book is $17.78 at Amazon.com. True to its title, the book has spawned its own mini-war in the ratings section of Amazon, where readers either loved it or hated it--75% of the reviews were 4 or 5 stars, while 21% were 1 star reviews. Only 4% of the readers gave it a mediocre 2 or 3 star rating. Some of the 1 star reviews are no doubt there because “Watt’s Up With That,” one of the most prominent climate science confusion sites, put up a post calling on readers to attack Mann’s book and to attack positive reviews.
Links
Besieged by Climate Deniers, A Scientist Decides to Fight Back, an opinion piece by Dr. Mann that appeared on the Yale Environment 360 site on April 12.
Much-vindicated Michael Mann and Hockey Stick get final exoneration from Penn State — time for some major media apologies and retractions. Climateprogress.org blog post by Joe Romm.
An interview with Dr. Mann about his book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", appeared on Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog in the New York Times on May 3.
My favorite climate science blog is realclimate.org, which Dr. Mann co-founded. You can see one of the latest challenges to the hockey stick answered in a May 11 post discussing tree ring records from Siberia.
I'll have a new post by Friday at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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...and what, today, would be your alternative? Demonize them all you want but they provide a product that is required.
My alternative?
Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, tidal, wave, biomass, biogas for electricity generation. Use storage to make things work smoothly and lower our power needs with efficiency.
Switch most of our transportation to electricity.
Keeper,do you have the text of the models for 92E? I ask because the site where I get them is not working at this time.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
iam having same problem cannot get access site must be down
Do any of the products used on WU take advantage of the new data from Suomi NPP?
Political weather: top 4 companies in the US are 1. Oil, 2. Chinese import goods, 3. Oil, and 4 Oil.
This is obviously the economy we want. We choose it every single day by what we buy and from where. It is as simple as that.
Thank you for the answer. Good to know that is not only me.
Do you realize that you have only given credence to what I have said?
Yeah very interesting to see that, I got slammed pretty good at my house in Pinellas, over an inch of rain here, first good soaking in a long while.
Most of the land area haven't seen much today because of the high clouds but some slight heating is causing some activity to pop in those areas now.
I'm hoping that convergence zone holds together as it comes into the Tampa Bay area, moisture is high and it will dump well needed rainfall if it does.
I'm surprised at the lack of strong thunderstorms today though, I had a stronger cell earlier but overall convection has been pretty tame, which is strange given the colder air aloft moving in.
It is the political games behind it that make most of us tune this out.
Both sides of the debate are just as guilty of Hyperbole and posturing the facts to match their agenda.
For the most part, I think we are warmer as a planet, but I think the causes are not the political ones most presented but things we do not completely understand.
I could buy that debate, but to assume it is all man made is just as ridiculous as saying it does not exist.
A big glass of refreshing juice. Not the poisoning stuff the fossil fuel industry is offering you.
Fact: We have the technology right now to get almost totally off fossil fuels.
Almost all of us could drive an EV or a PHEV and experience no change in our lifestyle other than lower monthly bills.
We could replace all the coal on our grid right now with renewable energy. In the short term we need existing natural gas generation to fill in the gaps, but over time we can replace NG with storage. Our electricity cost would be lower than it now is.
PBO a socialist? I guess if you have some unique definition of socialism. Something like "equal rights for all = socialism". Or "making the rich pay their fair share = socialism".
Let's look at the Wiki definition -
"A socialist economic system would consist of an organisation of production to directly satisfy economic demands and human needs, so that goods and services would be produced directly for use instead of for private profit driven by the accumulation of capital, and accounting would be based on physical quantities, a common physical magnitude, or a direct measure of labour-time.[5][6] Distribution of output would be based on the principle of individual contribution."
Now, I see nothing in our current president's behavior that tells me that he is against private profit. Nor against the accumulation of capital.
What I see is someone who wants us to avoid being an oligarchy "a form of power structure in which power effectively rests with a small number of people".
Would you like to live in a country where only a handful of people owned everything and the rest of us were their serfs? If that's your idea of paradise then I can understand why you would oppose President Obama.
Yeah the local NWS office seems be ignoring it right now, Bay News 9 has picked up on the surface low developing so the booted their rain coverage fore tomorrow and Friday, it could be much higher than 50% but they are being cautious because just the other day the models had really dry air moving in, now it looks like a low pressure system with deep moisture and lots of rain, I am very happy with this, this means us west Coast Floridians will be getting in the action a lot more as well.
Just when you consider they way things have trended lately weather pattern wise is a good sign of hope the rain season will certainly arrive on time, if not a bit earlier, and the drought will come to end,. Although it will take a while to officially end because we do have a huge deficit.
no it is not it sure didn't stop TS ana in 2003 when if formed in april
Apart from that,do you see development in the Western Caribbean by early next week?
Tropical Storm Aletta peaks in intensity; Invest 92E forms, likely to become Bud
I guess I'll start mentioning the possibilities for subtropical and tropical development for this weekend and next week in my blog tomorrow.
Why don't you read the science?
You can start here...
http://climate.nasa.gov/
or here...
http://www.skepticalscience.com/
In a few minutes you can discover the role of humans in current climate change. Neither of these sites are political sites, they are science sites.
Science has no agenda other than discovering factual answers to questions.
I can tell you I can see it and what ever tropical system develops it becoms sub-tropical after it passes florida
I don't know, heavy rainfall looks like a good but but I doubt anything tropical will come about, maybe the system will feel tropical for us because of warm water and high moisture in the atmosphere, but with that upper low in the gulf tropical development should be unlikely.
This says a lot about how you see things
Sometimes the hard truth hurts enough we just hide from it
Not here in Orlando Jed as lots of street flooding here east of I-4 in Seminole County heavy rain for hours now. I would say over 2" over here at my work while at my house it's just light rain it appears.
yeah I knew you would say that ok now listen to this you look at that upper level low but you don't see that upperlevel high that is now starting to develop in the SW caribbean which I will add is expected to move over top of this tropical system yes upper level low can harm systems but they can also help them as in this example that is happening right now the upper level low helps with the out flow in the upper level high ok so do you understand it
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012
...ALETTA SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 113.5W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
I agree with this statement, there is probably a low chance of anything forming, regardless it will probably have the same impact as far as weather condition go. The only difference is that there won't be a name :(
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA (EP012012)
2:00 PM PDT May 16 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: "ALETTA" SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Aletta (1004 hPa) located at 11.4N 113.5W or 720 NM south southwest of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 12.4N 115.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 13.1N 115.0W - Low Pressure Area
Widespread 1" inch totals. Locally up to 2-3".
Those are all good ideas and people and industry is moving in that direction, even more so because of the GW movement. However, we are not there today and will not be there for many years to come. Additionally the things you outlined are mainly power and transportation related. What about all of the other thing and products that are fossil fuel related? We are not even close to replacements.
WTPZ31 KNHC 162035
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012
...ALETTA SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 113.5W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. ALETTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
GMZ873-162130-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0026.120516T2029Z-120516T2130Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
429 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...
* UNTIL 530 PM EDT
* AT 422 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT OVER THE WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...ABOUT 46 NM WEST
OF INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 15 KNOTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.
&&
LAT...LON 2784 8374 2784 8321 2727 8329 2738 8365
2776 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 278DEG 15KT 2764 8364
$$
Right. But those other things are nowhere near as polluting, nor are they the primary driver behind the use of fossil fuels.
Transportation uses for oil (defined as gasoline, fuel oil, LPG, Jet Fuel) comprise approx. 75% of our oil use. US DoE.
Take those out of the picture, and suddenly, you have less pollution, less consumption, and more sustainable living. It also means we have more time to develop effective alternatives for items that we *can't* make without oil.
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