Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins
The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.
Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.
Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012
...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 107.3W
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
I'm also interested at the pace which it will develop, considering the atmosphere is trying to lead the process (it lagged the process during the last La Nina).
By 2100 I will be well dead.
123 jeffs713: "Copyright 2007" Welcome to 5 years ago.
Lot has changed in the past 5years, for the worse-than-predicted. An article written today would read:
GlobalWarming -- Over a Billion Surfed by rising sea-levels
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS HAS PERSISTED AND EXPANDED...
WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN RECENT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO
EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE NAMED ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TO INTENSIFY. AFTER
THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INCREASING SHEAR
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FORECAST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/07. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION
ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER WEAKENING
COMMENCES...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DECREASE...
WITH THE GFS HINTING THAT THE WEAKENED CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
COULD EVEN TURN EASTWARD INTO AN ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THE OFFICIAL NHC IS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 10.0N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 10.3N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 10.7N 110.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 11.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 11.3N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 11.6N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 12.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 10.0N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 10.3N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 10.7N 110.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 11.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 11.3N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 11.6N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 12.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Yeah, it's definitely coming. Most of us have been preaching it for a while now. I think our biggest question is, "when?" A slower onset will allow more favorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic. I've been thinking by the peak of hurricane season we will be at the threshold of El Nino (right at +0.5C). Even if that's the case, it wouldn't be devastating to the Atlantic season. Nonetheless, it's probably a safe bet to say that the Atlantic will shutdown earlier than normal this year.
TORNADO WARNING continues for Duplin and Sampson counties until 5:15 PM. A strong thunderstorm north of Clinton, heading NE towards Faison and Mount Olive, is capable of producing a tornado. A full update will be given on WWAY News Channel 3 at 5PM. From WWAY TV3
I win. If I don't get by the Severe warned storms, I will get hit by the Tornado warned ones. They probably won't be warned then though.
that one in myrtle beach might be the one you see if it holds together
Why, you didn't look at mine from this morning?
Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
SCC051-142130-
/O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0003.120514T2047Z-120514T2130Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
447 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HORRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
SCC051-067-142100-
/O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0002.120514T2033Z-120514T2100Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
433 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HORRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
205 MahFL: By 2100 I will be well dead.
Quitter. "Party hearty. Leave the mess behind."
Didn't know you had made one. I looked at it. :)
looks like a hook is forming
1-E moving W is a great thing for TX, and beyond, it will spin up and off moisture plumes over us for some time instead of just plowing into MX.
Try this again
What? Me worry?
OK, it is not going to work. The article states that the Japanese are going to restart one of their reactors. ... Google, "Fukushima Reactors".
there is always more
to the picture
than meets thee eye
Wait, we are discussing Transformers now?
It's 01E now... But I agree, not really a big deal. 01L will be though!
You may want to mention that again to the LBAR and GFDL
By the way I have a blog entry up containing my thoughts for the 2012 East Pac season... It's a couple weeks old but since the season starts tomorrow I thought I'd mention it
Don't forget the disturbance behind 01E...
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve Loop
..click image for Loop
It could head straight for Clipperton Island!
A fine radius of symmetry for a early Whirly..
ALERT THE PRESS!
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop
..click image for Loop
..What,? you wanna see Press is da Dress again ya said?
NO... v_v
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