Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Near 0%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS REMAINS
MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS
SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED. ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BEGIN ON 1 JUNE 2012.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

Quoting Chicklit:
1102 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012 /1002 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE TRANS PECOS... AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FOR THE TRANS PECOS.

I don't think anyone out there is going to complain about getting some much-needed rain.
LinkMidland Odessa Texas Radar

That area needs all the rain they can get. On Local News this morning they showed why Lake Travis is still down 40 feet. Austin area in past 6 1/2 months has received 25 to 28 inches of rain or 10 to 12 inches above normal while the Hill Country areas near the Lake have received 12 to 15 inches during the same period, they may get some more rain this evening and early Tuesday then the Western 2/3's of Texas should dry out for quite some time as well as get pretty hot .

Quoting severstorm:
Things are starting to pop on the west coast of fl.

That's an active west coast seabreeze boundry.

Greenland Ice Sheet Research
(and Musk Ox Burgers)

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/expeditions/2 012/05/14/following-the-ice-greenland/



This blog will be about our team's work, life in the arctic, climate change, and our inevitable adventures. Like last year, blog posts will be flown out of camp on stick drives whenever helicopters transport gear and people to and from our camp, and on every occasion someone is able to hike out to town (an all-day event that involves a river crossing).

Looks like we have good chances of rain here in Florida up to Wednesday before the front clears us out Thursday through the weekend!!!

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
if we get the carib storm forecast track would look something like

I don't see it happening like that since that is a typical November storm track and we're talking May, we would really have to get a deep longwave trough for that to happen. Then again that could be a sign of an El-Nino as luvtogolf pointed out, showing a weak system battling shear and probably not making it past Cuba.

Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like we have good chances of rain here in Florida up to Wednesday before the front clears us out Thursday through the weekend!!!

??? 12Z GFS keeps the rains going especially for eastern FL.



CMC as well has trended wet this weekend as the low near Bermuda is dropped by the models.

12Z GFS takes weak system up to S FL.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z GFS takes weak system up to S FL.

Yeah that's barely a tropical storm, what's interesting is that the GFS keeps the AOI pinned down in the Caribbean for a while, it starts forming around the 20th and this is out to the 25th.

From the NWS Wilmington, NC discussion about the potential development off the east coast

WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE WEEKEND IS STILL QUITE UP-IN-THE-AIR...AND
THERE IS A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE...AND EVEN AMONG
RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS. HOWEVER...WE CAN DEVELOP
SOME IDEAS ABOUT WHAT TO EXPECT. AS THE TROUGH KICKS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...IT DEEPENS OFF THE SE COAST AND WILL LIKELY CUT OFF DUE
TO RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A
COLD CORE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP...AND THEN TRANSITION TO WARM
CORE AS EVIDENCED BY AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES IMMEDIATELY ABOVE
THE CLOSED CIRCULATION AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC
GRADIENT. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL POSITIONING...SO CANNOT HONE IN ON ANY SPECIFICS.
HOWEVER...WITH A DEEP TOUGH...AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SAT/SUN BUT NOTE
THAT IF CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FURTHER EAST...THE WEEKEND WILL
BE DRY.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


??? 12Z GFS keeps the rains going especially for eastern FL.

That model is out to lunch.:) Moisture doesn't just build behind a frontal boundary unless there's a forcing mechanism to work with.

Most models have this boundary well south of us by early 12z Friday(around north-central Cuba). The GFS leaves it just south of Lake Okeechobee which seems suspect since a northern stream impulse will meet up with the southern streamer(over the Western Atlantic)-giving the front an extra boost.

Chuckling at the pre-season hype here: Hyping GFS GOM dev at 252 hours on May 14th. Does it get any more wishy than that? lol

Quoting weatherbro:


That model is out to lunch.:) Moisture doesn't just build behind a frontal boundary unless there's a forcing mechanism to work with.

Most models have this boundary well south of us by early Thursday morning(around the Everglades City/Florida Bay). The GFS leaves it just south of Lake Okeechobee which seems suspect since a northern stream impulse will meet up with the southern streamer(over the Western Atlantic)-giving the front an extra boost.

The problem is there is no front that moves thru now that both the CMC and GFS have dropped the Mid Atlantic low. What happens front stalls and a moist east flow sets up.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah that's barely a tropical storm, what's interesting is that the GFS keeps the AOI pinned down in the Caribbean for a while, it starts forming around the 20th and this is out to the 25th.

I find it interesting that the GFS keeps on pushing this storm further and further out (based on forecasts from last week, it was supposed to start getting itself together on the 16th-17th, and then cross FL around the 21st)

THE 1921 HURRICANE AND TAMPA BAY.......................The Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921 (also known as the Tarpon Springs Hurricane) was the third hurricane, second major hurricane, and final storm of an inactive 1921 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the first hurricane to directly make landfall in Tampa Bay, Florida[1] and one of several notable hurricanes to make landfall in Florida. The storm took a typical path for an October Atlantic hurricane, brushing past Cuba before hitting near Tampa. The hurricane was also the most destructive storm of the season, causing around $10 million (1921 USD, $92 million (2005 USD) in damage.

Quoting StormHype:
Chuckling at the pre-season hype here: Hyping GFS GOM dev at 252 hours on May 14th. Does it get any more wishy than that? lol

You're not the only one chuckling. I also found the 384hr GFS runs for 3-4 days amusing.

Quoting StormHype:
Chuckling at the pre-season hype here: Hyping GFS GOM dev at 252 hours on May 14th. Does it get any more wishy than that? lol

lol, desperate measures on here for a storm. Sad thing is, Florida still aint gonna get rain, lol. If models were real world, there would be a surplus in Florida right now! lol

Quoting RitaEvac:
Still can't believe the eye-wall of this storm came right over me from this location, boggles the mind

Wow... If that track actually happened, I would be in a whole world of trouble.

MILLIONS AT RISK WITH RISING SEA LEVELS...Link

Quoting ncstorm:

From the NWS Wilmington, NC discussion about the potential development off the east coast

WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE WEEKEND IS STILL QUITE UP-IN-THE-AIR...AND
THERE IS A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE...AND EVEN AMONG
RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS. HOWEVER...WE CAN DEVELOP
SOME IDEAS ABOUT WHAT TO EXPECT. AS THE TROUGH KICKS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...IT DEEPENS OFF THE SE COAST AND WILL LIKELY CUT OFF DUE
TO RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A
COLD CORE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP...AND THEN TRANSITION TO WARM
CORE AS EVIDENCED BY AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES IMMEDIATELY ABOVE
THE CLOSED CIRCULATION AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC
GRADIENT. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL POSITIONING...SO CANNOT HONE IN ON ANY SPECIFICS.
HOWEVER...WITH A DEEP TOUGH...AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SAT/SUN BUT NOTE
THAT IF CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FURTHER EAST...THE WEEKEND WILL
BE DRY.

Yep...In the near term, I think this has the best shot in the Atlantic side.

Quoting LargoFl:
MILLIONS AT RISK WITH RISING SEA LEVELS...Link

"Copyright 2007"

Welcome to 5 years ago.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
153 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

FLZ042-043-141845-
SUMTER-CITRUS-
153 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SUMTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
CITRUS COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR WITHLAPOPKA ISLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF INVERNESS...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH...WILL AFFECT RUTLAND...WAHOO...LAKE
PANASOFFKEE AND SUMTERVILLE...UNTIL 245 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY
RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER
VEHICLES.

Quoting jeffs713:

"Copyright 2007"

Welcome to 5 years ago.

yes but its still relevant and looking at whats happening up north, its worth reading

Quoting LargoFl:
yes but its still relevant and looking at whats happening up north, its worth reading

Absolutely it is relevant. I was just giving you a hard time for posting an article from 2007.

Quoting jeffs713:

Absolutely it is relevant. I was just giving you a hard time for posting an article from 2007.

lol i knew that lol

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:

cloudy ,hmm maybe a bit overcast, but it looks like all the rain so far is north of me..going to be an inland rain event today looks like..stormtracker have your umbrella handy lol..looks like its your rain event tonight

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:

Nice line forming here to my west. I would not be surprised to start seeing some warnings here over the next couple of hours.

I'm PRAYING that the seabreeze gives Hillsborough some rain today, because it's as usual scooting off to the north.

Wow, it's great actually getting to see the NHC issue products on a tropical system again! One E is forecast to make minimal TS strength... Personally I think its already there

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nice line forming here to my west. I would not be surprised to start seeing some warnings here over the next couple of hours.

heads up stormtracker, its almost on you........

Also, I see we have TD-1E.

Daytona might get some of this later on today............

no luck for us here teddy,its an inland rain today so far..gee.........................

not a drop on our local radar............

12z Euro--development of the potential east coast storm--moves off to the north





last frame

nothing by us teddy..at least not yet there is a lil still out in the gulf, lets see if we get a few raindrops from those later on this afternoon or tonight..

I have -100% faith, less than 0%, in that Euro storm.
just sayin.

Quoting LargoFl:
nothing by us teddy..at least not yet there is a lil still out in the gulf, lets see if we get a few raindrops from those later on this afternoon or tonight..

I won't hold my breath. Tampa's shields are impenetrable.

OK Long day so far... good to have Tropical Depression one E to greet me home
Welcome EPAC Season... we've been waiting

BREAKING NEWS FROM NORTH CAROLINA:

A POSSIBLE tornado struck a small town a hour to southwest of me in Richmond County, NC at 12:50 pm EST. 3 houses is damaged. I think this is EF-0 or EF-1 twister. NWS Raleigh already sent people down there and they are working on it.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#RAH/2012051 41650/201205141650/0100

https://twitter.com/#!/WSOCWeather/status/2021009 32794793985/photo/1

EPac pre-season storms are very rare in comparison to Atlantic. Since 1949 there have been 2 pre-season storms to form in the Eastern Pacific basin, all within a week from May 15th (CPac gets more but they all crossover into the WPac quickly). So really, TD-01E is is a pretty rare storm even though it formed about 11 hours before season start.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
BREAKING NEWS FROM NORTH CAROLINA:

A POSSIBLE tornado struck a small town a hour to southwest of me in Richmond County, NC at 12:50 pm EST. 3 houses is damaged. I think this is EF-0 or EF-1 twister. NWS Raleigh already sent people down there and they are working on it.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#RAH/2012051 41650/201205141650/0100

https://twitter.com/#!/WSOCWeather/status/2021009 32794793985/photo/1

yeah I pulled this from one of the facebook sites on 5 State Weather of the tornado

This storm needs a TORNADO WARNING!!!

Quoting StormTracker2K:
This storm needs a TORNADO WARNING!!!

alot of red and yellow alright

Dangerous storm to my west with rotation. You can even see the clouds moving in towards this cell. Don't see this very often in FL.

Quoting LargoFl:
alot of red and yellow alright

Had a nice hook echo just 5 minutes ago.