Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:24 PM GMT del 14 Maggio 2012

Share this Blog
25
+

The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.

Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 102 - 52

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Near 0%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS REMAINS
MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS
SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED. ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BEGIN ON 1 JUNE 2012.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

Member Since: Aprile 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14276
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if we get the carib storm forecast track would look something like



Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Things are starting to pop on the west coast of fl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
getting warm inland................
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFS is showing a ridge building over the Caribbean over the coming days but I agree with you that anything past the Gulf of Honduras looks to have shearing winds.


Are those shearing winds normal for this time of year or are we talking about early signs of El Niño?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ClevelandBob:


TD One-E May 13, 1996.


Thank you for the answer. Is not common to see them form before the official start of the EPAC season.
Member Since: Aprile 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14276
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone know when was the last time a TC formed in the EPAC before May 15th?


TD One-E May 13, 1996.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone know when was the last time a TC formed in the EPAC before May 15th?
Member Since: Aprile 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14276
Be careful over in Texas, alot of flash flooding..FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND DOWN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KERRVILLE
TO PEARSALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE LIKELY OVER
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE. PARTS
OF THIS AREA RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING AND THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF. RAIN SHOULD END
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

TXC019-127-137-163-265-271-323-325-385-463-465-50 7-150200-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0006.120515T0000Z-120515T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BANDERA-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FRIO-KERR-KINNEY-MAVERICK- MEDINA-REAL-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-ZAVALA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANDERA...CARRIZO SPRINGS...
ROCKSPRINGS...PEARSALL...KERRVILLE...BRACKETTVILL E...EAGLE PASS...
HONDO...LEAKEY...UVALDE...DEL RIO...CRYSTAL CITY
1141 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...BANDERA...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...KERR.. .KINNEY...
MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE AND ZAVALA.

* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON TUESDAY

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES WILL ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
FIVE INCHES.

* FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...PLAN NOW FOR WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE
READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.

&&

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
75 miles more west, and we'd be talking about something entirely differently

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Katrina NOAA Base map Index, click on thumbnails for imagery



Surge Impacted area, Bay St. Louis, Miss.

Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1204 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172 >174-141800-
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1204 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 2 PM...A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
AT 5 MPH AND ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. SOME LOCATION TO
BE AFFECTED WILL BE MIAMI BEACH, BOCA RATON, AND DELRAY BEACH.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS.

$$

GREGORIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:



Hurricane Ivan Damage




Hurricane Preparation 2012

amazing pic there,total destruction
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Hurricane Ivan Damage




Hurricane Preparation 2012

Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFS is showing a ridge building over the Caribbean over the coming days but I agree with you that anything past the Gulf of Honduras looks to have shearing winds.

yes and that ridge moves close to the caribbean storm and help it as it move towards cuba
Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038
Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFS is showing a ridge building over the Caribbean over the coming days but I agree with you that anything past the Gulf of Honduras looks to have shearing winds.

Gotcha.

Has anyone seen the Euro for this time period? (I know its right on the edge of the Euro)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

huh? It didn't hit the numbers needed for designation as a TC or STC.


It was both Extra Tropical and Tropical and had winds of 50 mph. It was clearly for 12 hours a Subtropical Storm. The original qualifications for a Subtropical Storm...

"A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical and an extratropical cyclone."

Source: WIKI

The NHC probably has updated their original criteria, so this didn't meet their new criteria for a Subtropical Cyclone. According to Wikis definition, this was a Subtropical Cyclone. You may mix science and graphs with it but the original definition is there, this was a Subtropical Cyclone. Whether it was named or not or Post Analysis is yet to be determined in a couple of months.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Only storm I see is the one further west in the EPAC. The one near CA is just a weak low pressure center, and the one in the Caribbean is too weak, and doesn't have the organization to be a storm.

Also, as GTcooliebai mentioned, shear is pretty vicious in the Caribbean atm, and there isn't much coming down the pipeline from the east that would help on that front.


GFS is showing a ridge building over the Caribbean over the coming days but I agree with you that anything past the Gulf of Honduras looks to have shearing winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm thinking the one over Central America would be drawn into the one over the Caribbean, especially if we get an upward pulse in the MJO.


That's exactly what happens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
GFS shows 2 storms in E-Pac and one in NW Caribbean.



Only storm I see is the one further west in the EPAC. The one near CA is just a weak low pressure center, and the one in the Caribbean is too weak, and doesn't have the organization to be a storm.

Also, as GTcooliebai mentioned, shear is pretty vicious in the Caribbean atm, and there isn't much coming down the pipeline from the east that would help on that front.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm thinking the one over Central America would be drawn into the one over the Caribbean, especially if we get an upward pulse in the MJO.

agreed
Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038
Quoting StormTracker2K:
GFS shows 2 storms in E-Pac and one in NW Caribbean.


I'm thinking the one over Central America would be drawn into the one over the Caribbean, especially if we get an upward pulse in the MJO.
Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
GFS shows 2 storms in E-Pac and one in NW Caribbean.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind Shear still strong across the Caribbean, need that to relax before we can talk about any development.

Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Thunderstorms firing now in NW Volusia County and these could turn severe later as an 80knt jet is nosing into C FL this afternoon.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
"The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably"

That would make it a Subtropical Storm anyways despite the name do to it having extra tropical and tropical characteristics. The NHC pretty much went against their original criteria for a Subtropical Storm, they really need to not name these things if it's gonna be this complicated.

huh? It didn't hit the numbers needed for designation as a TC or STC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1102 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012 /1002 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE TRANS PECOS... AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FOR THE TRANS PECOS.

I don't think anyone out there is going to complain about getting some much-needed rain.
LinkMidland Odessa Texas Radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
123 hrs TS starting to form.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably"

That would make it a Subtropical Storm anyways despite the name do to it having extra tropical and tropical characteristics. The NHC pretty much went against their original criteria for a Subtropical Storm, they really need to not name these things if it's gonna be this complicated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ahh Earl..little did it know it would become known as the hurricane that was pumping the ridge to our fellow bloggers..the NHC had a time with this one because they kept saying it would turn

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The may feature is going to be the Caribbean this week and not near Bermuda.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12Z GFS really wants something to form in the western Caribbean very soon. Dr. Rick Knabb may want to rethink his clains of "Bogus GFS".


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks at the W caribbean conditions now starting to look better
Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038
Still can't believe the eye-wall of this storm came right over me from this location, boggles the mind

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
all those clouds and not a drop of rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jrweatherman:


"Blow up" over a fish depression in the Pacific Ocean? Don't see that happening.
lol i was thinking that yesterday..a fish storm it is
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Worst I've seen the blog in my two years here was when this was released.



True...that was pretty bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
While the talk is of the EPAC--and rightly so--there's a little weather weirdness to talk about in Europe: Spain and Portugal (and Morocco a bit farther south) are seeing some incredibly hot weather today, with many readings of 100 degrees and higher breaking all-time high temperature records for the month of May. Meanwhile, not so far to the east, Sarajevo and surrounding areas are experiencing a heavy snow today, a May storm all the more freakish after the area saw record high temperatures this past weekend into the 90s.
GEE I was there in Sarajevo in the 80's while the Olympics was going on, what a beautiful OLD city it was,probably destroyed in the war there..really a shame, place was like going Back in time..nothing like that here in the states...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
This was a "Blow Up" moment...



Worst I've seen the blog in my two years here was when this was released.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
While the talk is of the EPAC--and rightly so--there's a little weather weirdness to talk about in Europe: Spain and Portugal (and Morocco a bit farther south) are seeing some incredibly hot weather today, with many readings of 100 degrees and higher breaking all-time high temperature records for the month of May. Meanwhile, not so far to the east, Sarajevo and surrounding areas are experiencing a heavy snow today, a May storm all the more freakish after the area saw record high temperatures this past weekend into the 90s.

Thanks for the update Neapolitan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This was a "Blow Up" moment...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 102 - 52

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
79 °F
Parzialmente nuvoloso