Azores storm could become Subtropical Storm Alberto
An interesting and surprising hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 400 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands. This low, designated Invest 92L by NHC today, has developed an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, despite the fact that it is over cold ocean waters with temperatures of 66°F (19°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. However, there is quite cold air aloft, so the temperature difference between the surface the upper levels has been great enough to create sufficient instability for 92L to organize. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 63 mph at 1:45 pm EDT Saturday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 50 mph at 2 pm EDT Saturday.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite photo of Invest 92L, taken at 16 UTC May 12, 2012, by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.
NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a named storm by Monday. They will be reluctant to name it Alberto unless the storm can maintain it's current level of heavy thunderstorm activity for at least 6 - 12 hours. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have weakened some during the afternoon, making it less likely NHC will be inclined to name it; the fact that 92L is over waters of 66°F (19°C) hurts its chances. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 19°C, during Tropical Storm Grace of 2009. Grace holds the record for being the farthest northeast forming tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Like 92L, Grace also formed near the Azores Islands, but in early October. The coldest waters I've seen a hurricane form in were 22°C, for Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. Latest guidance from the computer models show 92L meandering to the south of the Azores through Monday, then beginning a slow motion towards the northeast by Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
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Quiet the opposite...there's a pre-frontal surface trough that's vented by an upper ridge...
Yep,finnally we had one mainly dry day after the many ones with rain and flooding. This is tonight's updated discussion.
TOMORROW SHOWERS WILL VERY LIKELY FORM OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO
AND HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN MAYAGUEZ WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY
DECREASING BUT STILL QUITE SUBSTANTIAL SO WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE MOST VIGOROUS SHOWERS FORM. HAVE KEPT
HAZE...AS SAHARAN DUST IS STILL PRESENT IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. NAAPS
PRODUCT PRODUCED IN MONTEREY SHOWS THIS AREA WILL BE FADING AND
MOVING ON. DUST WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN FROM THE SAHARA BUT THE
MODEL SHOWS IT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. I SUSPECT WE WILL
STILL NOTICE SOME WHITISH TINGE TO THE SKIES AND HILLS DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS THICK AS WE SAW
IT TODAY.
Well...you ain't the only one. Pretty sure everyone on this blog wants it to become Alberto...as seen by the emotions displayed every time the convection ticks up and down...
My bad, I read the wrong part of the Tropical Weather Discussion.
Its in the discussion? LOL...normally I don't read much of the discussion and just use satellites page and TAFB surface maps. That's how I figured out it was a surface trough myself...
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 33N30W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS NEAR THE SAME LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
LOW SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY IF NECESSARY.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG THE NRN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 5N18W
WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NW GULF...ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE LOUISIANA COAST ALONG 29N91W TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. DESPITE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT LIES AHEAD N OF 26N W OF 87W.
A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EMBEDDED IN THIS CONVECTIVE AREA
ANALYZED FORM 30N88W TO 26N92W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
NUMEROUS CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KT
ARE REPORTED WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE. THE
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK ENE...THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR EL
SALVADOR EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N-EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THE
UPPER FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IS DRAWING CIRRUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN EXCEPT THE SE CORNER.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EL
SALVADOR. THIS FEATURE IS INFLUENCING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH
SOME LOW TOP SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. SOME OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA. THIS FLOW IS BANKING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC N OF THE AREA
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR REGION ALONG 32N60W TO
27N63W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 22N65W. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 57W AND THE FRONT AXIS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM OFFSHORE. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE AREA FROM 22N68W TO 18N71W. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
NEAR 34N73W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND ERN ATLC. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
1. Invest becomes better organized, so much so that people will think it is a tropical storm, NHC will upgrade to upper mod/high risk, people will go bonkers and then the entire blog would hate NHC because that was "obviously Alberto" and how stupid can you be that you can name that system.
2. Invest becomes significantly better organized, becomes named, people go bonkers that this will be the worst year since 2005, 5 Katrinas will happen, and the world will basically end because the blog will be frozen by overload from an interesting but relatively insignificant storm compared to September "its just a name"
3. Invest weakens and dies and the poofcasters come in full force saying how this season is a Freaking bust and there should not be a reason to come back here because it's going to be the only season ever that goes (0-0-0) until July or August when once again, that "drug" of pure pleasure will arise with an increase in the numbers of named storms.
Sorry for my rant, but my point is, while weather is un-predictable, this blog is NOT! :)
Yep, you pretty much got it down I'd say. :P
Yep, I only know this because that is EXACTLY what has happened on this blog since 2006 when there were actually storms tropical waves that didn't form just because they were there (like '05) =)
My highest ranked comment, I feel so proud, this is LIVING on A Saturday Nite baby!
same to you pedley
Thank you, you too, gn all, hope for D-MAX in the Morning, and I don't know if your a fan, but because your from CA, go LAKERS
Guess who's back..... back again..... 92Ls back... DOOM again...
Why don't we take all the convection in 92L's bands
and send it to its center?
Scumbag 92L
Words cannot describe my joy when I saw that.
Being a meme type of guy I was ecstatic at the sight of this.
Wait, what?
Convection weakens.......92L Dead!!!!
Convection fires....What is the NHC doing?!!! Cant they see that is Alberto?!?!?!?!!!!!!
Clearly, this blog has no long term sense. :)
I'm speaking of the single parent dads that act as both mother and father
Get used to it. :)
there is something you need to learn weather in this context doesn't have any long term sense so duh
I've been on this blog now for almost 3 years now and it still gets on my nerves. Just because the convection is waning doesn't always mean it's "RIP". People should learn to watch and be patient before giving up on it.
Just one of my pet peeves. ;)
RIP Denny :(
The show "Mayday/Air Crash Investigations" did an episode on his crash. The introduction in the first few minutes really shows just how much he did.
It's because the people who say that don't know **** about how tropical cyclogenesis works.
Cool! I was just in Hattiesburg last week. Thought of you.
Awesome! Nice of you to think about me. What brought you to Mississippi?
A family reunion. I also got to visit the Jackson NWS. :D
Nice! Is your family from here or Jackson? I've always wanted to visit the NWS, but have never gotten around to it. They do a nice job and are normally spot on with their forecasts. Did you get to meet the staff?
Meh. As neat as it would be to get a named storm this early, the chances aren't very good. Besides, whatever happens will do so independently of what we desire. Best not to fret over it.
I met two people. Their hydrologist, and a meteorologist. I think the former's full name is Marty Hope, but I'm not sure about the latter. Chad something, I think. Both were really nice, and Chad used to live in Reserve, which is fairly close to where I live, which was cool.
All in all, a very good experience. I'm going to tackle the Slidell office this Saturday if I can.
can you tell then why are we here expecting the NHC to do otherwise?
Glad you had a good time. Have Facebook? If you do, shoot me an email.
My statement needed a little clarity. I meant that climatologically speaking it's unlikely, but the system is looking impressive enough to make me not want to give up on development just yet.
I can't breathe... LOL
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