2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas
The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.
Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon
Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.
Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.
Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)
In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012
Reader Comments
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First of the Jose-like storms.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Increases our chances of getting a Hermine-like TS (Sept '10)
They bet the customer premiums on the stock&bond&futures markets against pension funds and individual investors.
Because "fiduciary responsibility" laws pret' much force pension funds to buy high and sell low, and individual investors play hunches far too often, insurance companies have fairly easy pickin's.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
AWESOME!!!! already 40%
I don't know, let's ask the magic 8 ball.
Oh no, it appears unlikely. Sorry.
it was never dead nor ding wat is happening is a classic case of eastern pacific development notice the heavy convection and also see the rotation of the system imo this should be goin into 50 percent chance
we will see ALETTA soon
My prediction for the hurricane season? Unpredictable! I think we will see some awfully strange things this year. Wow, that's almost as pinpoint as an accuweather forecast! One thing I find disturbing is that the East Coast has had very warm sst all winter and near me we are up to 5 degrees celcius above normal. Looks like the gulf is starting to warm up too. I would be surprised to see above normal development off the East Coast via stalled fronts, etc.. Here are a look at the sst anomolies:
I agree... It looks as good or better now than ever, but it did lose some convection earlier today. This loop illustrates it well
Link
Ex-Invest 91E, Invest 90E, and soon-to-be Invest 92E:
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
what i beleived happen is a center relocation notice a mid level swirl dissipate near 10 degrees north and 106.4 degrees west there were two other areas which have now given rest to a main center
Future 92E looks good
I hate when they use that wording. It's so suspenseful and is basically saying be very patient. Indeed hurricane season is arriving.
there cannot be a future 92E its too close to the main system the only how this is possible is if that system was to end up the main one in the 2 and chances are unlikely but it is possible notice where the national hurricane center has the area of forecast in between the 2 almost like these 2 will merge and it makes sense to say the atmosphere is conducive to this type of development sice there is no large anticyclone over the area
Don't worry, it'll happen sooner or later... I think with all the talk of our possible future Alberto people are forgetting its only mid May... Our season doesn't even start for almost 3 weeks so anything we get in that time is just a bonus... We'll see our fair share, trust me
That would be...odd...
How do you figure that? 90E and the disturbance are more than 10 degrees of longitude apart.
They're close together but you can se in post 576 that they are two distinct systems, so the one closest to the coast will probably be named 92E pretty soon.
Dang RTS, I was just posting this when I saw your entry
Do you think it will become the "A" storm?
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)
36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
538 RTSplayer: GFS current model forecast is for it to become some sort of hybridized low and move up towards Europe. Wonder if it will be named?
583 RTSplayer: Looks like Spain, Portugal, and France could get the "A" storm, and in May, of all things! [Path Prediction chart] That would be...odd...
"First Named TropicalCyclone of the Atlantic Season strikes Europe: Hijinks Ensue"
I'd imagine there'd be a LOT of Europeans torqued off at the US.
They should... I want to see how much of a chance they give it of developing
Might be becoming subtropical. Supposed to become 36kts. Nothing from the NHC yet.
It's a non-tropical area of low pressure by the Azores that is acquiring sub-tropical characteristics and becoming better organized. However, it is a small Vince/Grace type system.
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