Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather
Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."
Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.
May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.
Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.
Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".
The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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How is your weather, Aussie?
It has been the wettest dry season here.
To start May with torrential rain is pretty Historic.
Just heard an interview with a 97 year old Aussie who has just been given his third degree. Pretty impressive, that.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
720 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 720 AM UNTIL 100
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF DES MOINES IOWA TO 25 MILES EAST OF LAMONI IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT TSTM N-S BAND OVER THE LWR MO VLY...WITH
SPORADIC STRONGER STORMS...RECENTLY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER
ORGANIZED ACROSS SW IA...MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO ACTIVITY HAVING
REACHED ZONE OF GREATER LOW LVL MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/.
ORIENTATION OF THE SQLN LINE RELATIVE TO SELY SFC FLOW...AND ONSET
OF SFC HEATING...SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
STORM STRENGTH/SUSTENANCE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH AN
ATTENDANT INCREASED RISK FOR DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL DESPITE MODEST DEEP
SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...CORFIDI
Happy that I am in a warm dry house this morning and not out in the bush.
Say what?
There was a bug on his monitor screen.
He will probably be a while.....
how to speak english?
Same here.
Big flare-ups of heavy rain over the Mainland and in the Carib. Sea.
Looks like a lot of it heading your way.
And I am happy for you. I have to confess that I don't mind a little rain (or a lot) if I can be camping. Over the years, I actually got so used to camping in the rain up here that whenever it rains lightly to moderately, I feel like I should be camping.
I don't claim expertise in much, but I will claim expertise in staying dry. I am the Tarpmaster General of the US. lol
Don't underestimate the value of that expertise.
I bet there would be many people interested in a workshop on "Staying dry in Camp".
Makes all the difference between a Bad Trip and a Good One.
ZOMG! Cha-ching!! You taking the standard 15%?
Of course, such a class would be wasted here lately. There hasn't been much rain. We're not in a drought, but the next county over is. We do have rain forecast for tomorrow and Tuesday, though.
How about a video one? For people who have lost their roof etc, and need to stay dry for a couple days?
Probably something that Presslord/Portlight would be interested in too.
As you know (but most people don't), it all very well to put up a tarp. But what do you do with the water that pours off it, onto your fire/bed/children?
I was going to mention that but you've been up for hours:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/05/06/tor nado-japan.html
"1)One member came on to this site wishing for help on a weather event. He received only one piece but not a forecast or an interpretation ..Elsewhere people got him the official warning and others gave their interpretation.(I will not mention the site name for fear of a permaban as only some can mention the site ). Personally as the cane season is only a little bit away I am glad that people somewhere on the internet are willing to try and help ,and give their take on what will happen..."
Quite a bit different coming to a weather blog, any weather blog, for info on a cane versus info on a severe storm that might be bearing down. One is slow, and the other quick to befall. For info on severe, you and anyone will always be better served using official sources and local media mets. The blogger you refer to is savvy enough to have found these sources.
Choices have consequences.
;)
Have a nice day. Enjoy your rain. Looks like we may get some here in central Oklahoma.
SPC 0800 cdt Day 1 convective outlook
I'm actually going to consider that...if I can find the time.
True story: In 2004, the eye of Hurricane Charley passed right over our house in FL. When Hurricane Frances looked like it was going to do the same, I came up with the bright idea of "Hey, let's drive up to the Smokies and camp until the power comes back on down here!" Yeah, it was a great idea...except:
Yep. Three(?) days of absolute pouring down rain! There's a dislocated finger and about ten bee stings in there somewhere, too. It was a glorious trip!
Hey, at least we had the campground to ourselves.
From CBC.BC this morning:
"About a dozen protesters, including one of Canada's leading energy-environment economists, were arrested Saturday after setting up a blockade on train tracks in White Rock, B.C., aimed at stopping U.S. coal trains from reaching local ports.
Mark Jaccard, a professor of sustainable energy at Simon Fraser University and a Nobel Peace Prize winner, was arrested along with several others late Saturday evening following a day-long protest.
In a written statement released before the protest, Jaccard said he was prepared to be arrested.
"Putting myself in a situation where I may be accused of civil disobedience is not something I have ever done before," he said.
"But the current willingness of especially our federal government to brazenly take actions that ensure we cannot meet scientifically and economically sound greenhouse gas reduction targets for Canada and the planet leaves me with no alternative."
Dr. James Hansen may have been arrested as well.
Yeah and that is their hand writing too.
Whatever
I didn't know it until just now. At the time, I was too busy trying to pack up camping gear. Interesting.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0840 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / NWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061340Z - 061445Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOWING
MCS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1330Z...DMX RADAR SHOWED A BOWING MCS FROM DALLAS
AND POLK COUNTIES SWD TO CLARK AND DECATUR COUNTIES WITH SYSTEM
MOVING EWD AT AROUND 35 KT. ON IT/S CURRENT TRACK...IT WILL MOVE E
OF WW 255 BY ABOUT 1430Z. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
BOW IS SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS EWD INTO CNTRL IL. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX
REVEALED A NEAR-GROUND STABLE LAYER...BUT A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPE VALUES
ESTIMATED UPWARDS OF 4000-5000 J/KG.
DAYTIME HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM MCS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING.
AND WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ORGANIZED SYSTEM...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND GROWING COLD POOL
SHOULD ALLOW THE BOW TO FURTHER EVOLVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
..MEAD.. 05/06/2012
On a side note: I've traveled a lot, and I've come to the conclusion that the entrenched American belief that all non-European foreigners are illiterate and backwards couldn't be further from the truth.
The countries with the highest populations of native English speakers are, in descending order: the United States (215 million),[46] the United Kingdom (61 million),[47] Canada (18.2 million),[48] Australia (15.5 million),[49] Nigeria (4 million),[50] Ireland (3.8 million),[47] South Africa (3.7 million),[51] and New Zealand (3.6 million) in a 2006 Census.[52]
Countries such as the Philippines, Jamaica and Nigeria also have millions of native speakers of dialect continua ranging from an English-based creole to a more standard version of English. Of those nations where English is spoken as a second language, India has the most such speakers ('Indian English'). Crystal claims that, combining native and non-native speakers, India now has more people who speak or understand English than any other country in the world.[53][54]
Map of where English is commonly spoken. (As a side-note,since India has about 14 "official" languages and hundreds of dialects, it is quite common for many government bodies to use English rather than Hindi to conduct business. If the image does not come through, here is the link:
Yeah it was mentioned earlier... TWC had a video of it... Apparently almost 500 houses were damaged... It looked like maybe EF1 or 2
Here is a picture of the damage.
I posted this video earlier.
Link
Jeff Masters has posted a New Entry.
Let Hop to it troop's. : )
Photos from Climate Impacts Day
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:06 AM CDT on May 06, 2012
Although I am American I grew up in Calgary so I see
things a little differently. That's right I'm not a redneck.
However you are a liberal snob.
The women may agree with the sign but they
didn't write it and I doubt their english is good.
That's actually not a prayer God answers.
I'm not your mediator, and we can both be thankful for that.
you already know this, I hope.
I also never mentioned hell, at all.
You did.
In fact, before this post, I can't remember the last time I actually mentioned hell to anyone. I'm pretty sure it's been at least a year or two.
In fact, I never mentioned eternal judgement at all.
All of my posts were on exposing the hypocrisy of those two people, and of course pointing out the obvious nature of truth vs their subjective lies.
If you felt convicted of anything, or if you're just trolling, that's your problem, not mine.
science
sci·ence [sahy-uhns] Show IPA
noun
1.
a branch of knowledge or study dealing with a body of facts or truths systematically arranged and showing the operation of general laws: the mathematical sciences.
Well, you lost.
The dictionary definition of science says that science deals with knowledge and truths.
And lest there be any doubt, let's see the definition of knowledge.
knowl·edge [nol-ij] Show IPA
noun
1.
acquaintance with facts, truths, or principles, as from study or investigation; general erudition.
Ah, so knowledge itself is about the truth.
So now we KNOW that you have no idea what you were talking about.
And now we KNOW that science in fact is about the TRUTH, so much so that the definition is redundantly about the truth.
Do you YET refuse to admit how wrong and ridiculous your statements were?
Lot of lightning S of me.
Changed your Icon. I like it. Wish more people would take the time to at least find one to use instead of generic. And Good Morning to All
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