Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.
Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.
Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.
Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.
Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.
Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.
The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.
I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.
Jeff Masters
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Barefoot, I think that was blogger Thrawst that was asking about the Wilma animations... Glad to find 'em - for a while CIMSS had removed the original one, perhaps copyright issues (?), although I have the gifs / QTime versions saved in my own Wilma files...
Nahhh, no slighting at all on other storms - focus is on Wilma, although hard not to mention others... LOL, my 1st vague memory is of Audrey! Plenty of tropical cyclone impacts / memories in 6 decades living in same location of SE LA... In fact, have a hard time trying to place order of impact / precedence in an admittedly lengthy list...
;)
Heading out,
G'day all... and of course, safe wishes to all in path of current severe tstms!
Interesting article. Yes, I know about them. What surprised us is that there were so many and so continuous. Even when the sky cleared, the winds were still tornadic and one after the other. That is what we found unusual. There were very little reports on it, even by the NHC. I think they compensated when they upped Wilma from a Cat 1 to a Cat 2 later that year. Anyone who was there knew it was NOT a Cat 1.
Found one that I've bookmarked -- Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity -- mostly cuz I can't figure out what the maps' info is s'poseta mean in terms of weathercasting...
...even though I do comprehend the descriptions there. If anybody wants to explain, give a shout.
Stumbled across the webpage googling cuz the Limits on Hurricane Intensity posted in comment71 didn't have the same look as the ones I remembered reading. So I replaced it with:
The Maximum Intensity of Hurricanes
and Hurricane Maximum Intensity: Past and Present
and left the GlobalWarming and Hurricanes follow-up alone.
BREAKING -- Reports out of Busch Stadium in St. Louis: one dead, over a dozen injured after winds blew over a tent.
From iCyclone.com: Footage from the eyewall and eye of Hurricane Wilma as it made landfall near Everglades City, FL, on 24 October 2005.
Cayman Islands.
000
WUUS53 KLSX 282213
SVRLSX
ILC027-121-189-282300-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0116.120428T2213Z-120428T2300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
513 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT
* AT 507 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED JUST
EAST OF BARTELSO...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.
HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARLYLE...CENTRALIA...SALEM...SHATTUC...SANDOVAL.. .WAMAC...CENTRAL
CITY...IRVINGTON...ODIN...COVINGTON...POSEY...NEW MINDEN...HUEY...
HOFFMAN...FERRIN...HOYLETON...JUNCTION CITY...WALNUT HILL AND
SELMAVILLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
&&
LAT...LON 3847 8914 3839 8914 3850 8969 3866 8943
3866 8891 3847 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 285DEG 20KT 3853 8942
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60 MPH
$$
BYRD
Hey Jax. Never say never. If I remeber correctly Hurricane Dora hit your area pretty good in 1964.
He doesn't usually post much during the offseason. He has a website though.
Tropical Tidbits: Morsels of hurricane information, analyses, and forecasts.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
614 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012
INC027-083-101-282230-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120428T2230Z/
DAVIESS-KNOX-MARTIN-
614 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL DAVIESS...EAST
CENTRAL KNOX AND CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...
AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PETERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
IN ADDITION...80 TO 90 MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED IN WASHINGTON WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHOALS...CANNELBURG...WEST BOGGS LAKE...BURNS CITY...LOOGOOTEE...
INDIAN SPRINGS AND LACY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3880 8669 3856 8677 3868 8737 3887 8730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 285DEG 36KT 3864 8703
$$
50
Historically,yes!
In the future? Who knows?
You aint seen nothing yet!
Thanks for sharing Pat
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
621 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012
INC005-013-021-027-055-071-079-083-093-101-105-11 9-153-167-290300-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.A.0198.000000T0000Z-120429T0300Z/
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL INDIANA
BARTHOLOMEW
IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
BROWN JACKSON LAWRENCE
MONROE
IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA
JENNINGS
IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA
DAVIESS GREENE KNOX
MARTIN SULLIVAN
IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
CLAY OWEN VIGO
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BEDFORD...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...
SEYMOUR...TERRE HAUTE AND VINCENNES.
$$
INC027-093-101-282300-
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0015.120428T2228Z-120428T2300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
628 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 700 PM EDT
* AT 623 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHOALS...OR 21 MILES EAST OF
PETERSBURG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LACY...
HURON...
ROLAND...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3849 8694 3851 8699 3851 8707 3878 8690
3869 8647 3868 8667 3866 8668 3854 8667
3852 8669 3852 8683 3849 8688 3850 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 296DEG 41KT 3857 8684
$$
50
#278,
Barefoot...
Thanks Doc. I guess I read too fast. looool
Have a great eve! And I wish only nameless rain for LA coast this hurricane year.
Yeah they're still not too excited about it. But on the bright side the upper ridge is going to slide a bit off of us. :)
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UP-
COMING WEEK...KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND HUMID. CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW JUST ENOUGH LESSENING OF THE CAP AND DEEPER
MOISTURE PROFILES...THAT DIURNAL HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
Can you imagine a 3 seconds gust of 255mph and the damage it would cause
RT @TWC_Shawn: The Weather Channel has confirmed 1 death and 100 injuries due to a tent collapse outside of Busch Stadium in St. Louis
That's sad
My take is Emmanuel's charts are simply based as correlating to SST's and deep ocean heat content available, assuming idealized atmospheric conditions exist to allow such a maximum to be reached... LOL, I could be wrong... ;)
(Edit / add) #323,
Thanks BF, me too, no-name rain will do just fine... ;)
Back atcha, a pleasant Sat eve to ya!
You get those sea temps up high enough, with no negative influences, slow relative to surface movement, low shear, then you've got the perfect problem!
Its not a matter of "sustained gusts," its a possibility of sustained winds!
Maybe? Maybe not?
he is on FB under his name and also has wall for Tropical Tibits... He will be keeping up his blog here once something is out there to watch.. he is very busy with school..
So there was a possible tornado in St. Louis...just weeks after the anniversary of last year's tornado that hit St. Louis.. lovely.. D:
*facepalm*
Well, according to Climatology by the year 2100, that could be a typical reality. Climatoligists are forecasting that the storm seasons will have less storms(due to the increasing frequency of El Nino's becuase of warming oceans), but the storms we'll have will be stronger. So basically, the 2005 numbers might stand to be there for Centuries to come, and the strongest Atlantic Hurricane could fall easier in centuries to come.
You all enjoy your weekend..today was fun.
holy shiz. ;( that is just sad!
Some estimates from other sources state that the gusts may have been well over 200 mph.
Camille and unofficially the Labor Day Hurricane were the only Atlantic hurricanes to exhibit recorded sustained wind speeds of at least 190 miles per hour (310 km/h) until Allen joined the club in 1980, and remains the only confirmed Atlantic hurricane in recorded history to make landfall with wind speeds at or above such a level. The actual windspeed of Hurricane Camille will never be known, however, as it destroyed all of the wind recording instruments upon making landfall. By central pressure, in turn, Camille was the second strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane in recorded history, second only to the Labor Day Hurricane in 1935. It was also the first modern Category 5 hurricane to ever receive a person's name when making landfall in the United States.
Yeah, the rotation is off the charts with that one
Source of Camille name on hurricane naming list
In 1969, Meteorologist John Hope's daughter graduated from high school, so he added her name to the list of names to be used for hurricanes that year (at that time, there was no organized list of assigned names to be used, the only requirements were that the names had to be female male names were not used at that time in alphabetical order, and not otherwise retired). He had no way of knowing at the time that the storm that would take his daughter's name Camille would become one of the most powerful and destructive hurricanes to ever hit the United States when it slammed into Mississippi as a Category five hurricane.
His daughter Camille is married to former U.S. Representative Jim Marshall of Georgia.
It just goes to show that strong thunderstorms and highly populated areas don't mix...
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