Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.
Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.
Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.
Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.
Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.
Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.
The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.
I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012
TORNADO WATCH 212 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-081-083-097-101-119 -135-145-151-
165-171-175-185-010700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.120430T2245Z-120501T0700Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS FINNEY FORD
GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN
KIOWA LANE MEADE
NESS PAWNEE PRATT
RUSH SCOTT SEWARD
STAFFORD
OKC003-007-009-011-039-043-045-055-057-059-065-075 -093-129-149-
151-153-010700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.120430T2245Z-120501T0700Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GREER HARMON
HARPER JACKSON KIOWA
MAJOR ROGER MILLS WASHITA
WOODS WOODWARD
TXC011-045-065-075-087-129-179-191-197-211-233-295 -357-375-381-
393-437-483-010700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.120430T2245Z-120501T0700Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY
GRAY HALL HARDEMAN
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS SWISHER WHEELER
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...LUB...OUN...
Yeah I hate when that happens... Really messes the image up
In the meantime, looking at the dual-pol moments in regards to hail is quite interesting. Some of the areas with the highest BR also have ZDR near 0.0dBz... implying larger hailstones with little rainfall present. Rainfall is not spherical and thus gets more return from the horizontal than the vertical (ZDR >0.0dBz).
At the same time, there is a reduction in RHO/CC, implying something of irregular shape. Sometimes can be debris, other times can be large, irregular hail that is tumbling.
KDP is used to measure water content, and in those areas of lower RHO/CC and near 0.0 for ZDR we have low KDP.
Verdict: not much water, but large hail.
Hail with little rainfall? That's cool.
I've experienced it once or twice before. Very strange sensation when it happens... it just doesn't seem right. One time we were aware from the core and under the anvil. Updraft was strong enough to basically fling it out of the FFD and RFD regions.
They're not known for putting up a good fight against being hauled in, so I don't know why anyone would take an oarfish in the first place. Certainly their meat isn't anything that anyone would eat out of preference over a serving of any other fish.
BTW: Large numbers of oarfish were seen in the waters of and from the beaches of Japan between December'09 thru March'10. In Japanese folklore, they're known as Messengers from the Sea God's Palace... and their appearance is said to portend earthquakes.
So I guess Florida should expect its own Tsunami sometime soon.
Major hailstorm probably going on right now in the area where the circulation was located. Worst of the hail is in the hook where water content is minimal; heavy rain mixed with hail in the FFD north of the circulation.
Current Mid-level LCL Heights:
Current Surface-based CAPE:
Would imagine another is coming soon. This storm seems to be going through very rapid cycles with decent-sized tornadic circulation dying off within 1 radar scan and vice-versa. New circulation already is evident at upper tilts just east of the old occluded one.
Overall, it looks like the Texas Panhandle is a good place to be for very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The HRRR had some large supercells blowing up there around this timeframe.
- take care
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 616 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SPEARVILLE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPEARVILLE...BELLEFONT AND OFFERLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3801 9951 3783 9947 3783 9986 3795 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 267DEG 26KT 3789 9977
HAIL 1.50IN
$$
SUGDEN
Tornado Warned again...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF W TX -- FROM SOUTH-PLAINS TO BIG BEND AND
EWD TOWARD LOW ROLLING PLAINS...CONCHO VALLEY AND DRT AREA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...210...
VALID 302311Z - 010115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
209...210...CONTINUES.
CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF SVR TSTMS NOW OVER WW AREAS MAY PERSIST
FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS NW/W-CENTRAL/SW TX WITH DAMAGING
HAIL/GUSTS BEING PRINCIPAL CONCERNS. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOME PORTIONS OF CORRIDOR FROM SPS-DRT.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY DRYLINE OVER WRN PANHANDLE THEN SSEWD TO
JUST S LBB...THEN SSWWD TO NRN FRINGES OF LARGE TSTM COMPLEX BETWEEN
FST AND BIG BEND. YOUNGER BUT GROWING TSTM BAND...OVER CAPROCK
REGION E LBB...SHOULD MERGE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO ITS SW
ACROSS MAF-BPG AREA. EACH RESULTING MCS SHOULD GROW/DEEPEN ITS COLD
POOL...WHILE FORWARD-PROPAGATING EWD INTO BOUNDARY LAYER
CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND MIXING FOR
MAINTAINING DAMAGING GUST THREAT. PRE-STORM MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG
IS EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS. STRONGER CINH IS APPARENT AHEAD OF SRN
COMPLEX...WHERE EML BASE WARMTH IS MAXIMIZED IN 700-750 MB LAYER.
STORM-SCALE FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL SHOULD
OVERCOME THAT FOR SOME UNCERTAIN DISTANCE EWD ACROSS SW TX BEFORE
MCS DISSIPATES. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ALSO FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING GIANT/DAMAGING HAIL...WHEREVER STORMS CAN
REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE THROUGH MATURE STAGE...WITH 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR CAPROCK. 4.25 INCH STONES ALREADY
REPORTED IN BORDEN COUNTY AROUND 2230Z.
..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 29520278 29920304 30080373 30350277 30940268 31570271
33570247 34100232 34229958 34159889 32889903 32119909
30779978 29610028 28270028 28440032 28770052 29110071
29300086 29520121 29770143 29800189 29770211 29880231
29750232 29730264 29520278
1586 Grothar: Wow, that picture wants to make me go melt some butter.
The crab will probably appreciate your thoughtfulness as he dips you in.
And of course the part that could produce a tornado is heading right at Greensburg, as always.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT
* AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MULLINVILLE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBURG.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN DODGE CITY.
&&
I sure would appreciate images where I knew the source.
One of the best formed hook echos I've seen in a while... very tight rotation, even though it isn't the strongest
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
632 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT
* AT 630 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SITKA. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH. PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PROTECTION...BUTTERMILK...LAKE COLDWATER AND COLDWATER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3711 9973 3735 9934 3722 9913 3713 9911
3699 9952 3699 9956
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 229DEG 25KT 3706 9955
HAIL 1.50IN
$$
18
Just to the west of Okc looks real good too
Twenty minutes til it's right over them do u think there is time to recycle back?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
639 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT
* AT 634 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SUN CITY. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUN CITY...CROFT...COATS...CULLISON AND SAWYER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3764 9890 3747 9856 3725 9904 3734 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 228DEG 30KT 3733 9902
HAIL <.50IN
$$
33
Looks like they came from the mesoanalysis products of GREarth.
Yeah, I revised my comment a second ago to say it wouldn't take a direct hit. Noticed my mistake. :P
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