Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:00 PM GMT del 28 Aprile 2012

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At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.


Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.


Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.

Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.


Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.


Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.

The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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I was watching some storm footage of Isabel and I must say that the east coast was very lucky with Irene
Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7470
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, quakes are pretty common for you guys on the west coast...i've been in a few M4's and 5's myself


You feel those 5's, I been in a 6.6 and a 6.7, Those you remember. Nothing big here (near me) since the 1994 one (fingers crossed).
Member Since: Febbraio 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4929
Quoting PedleyCA:


Just kicking back and enjoying the weekend. Had a small earthquake this morning. (3.8) barely felt it, it was about 2 seconds worth.15-20 miles North. You guys get Hurricanes and I get EQ's

Yeah, quakes are pretty common for you guys on the west coast...i've been in a few M4's and 5's myself
Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7470
Quoting PlazaRed:

Is it some sort of per-view to what the Ox-Bridgers,(Oxford-Cambridge,) call the "Commie Holiday,"
All for one, one for all, everybody gets equal wages and the pigs get to sleep in beds with sheets? Animal farm, Orwell, etc.
Pouring with rain here at the 'outskirts'(dare I use that term, there may be juveniles reading?) of Jerez Spain, for the world motor cycle GP which is about to start in a few hours from now.
Its obvious that the majority of frequent bloggers are taking the day off and chilling out, before the start of the big blow up for the Western Atlantic in the next few weeks.


Well, I started out as Napolean and changed into the Old Major. Now I think I am more like Mr.Pilkington. So, you are in Eurasia?
Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
Quoting PlazaRed:

Is it some sort of per-view to what the Ox-Bridgers,(Oxford-Cambridge,) call the "Commie Holiday,"
All for one, one for all, everybody gets equal wages and the pigs get to sleep in beds with sheets? Animal farm, Orwell, etc.
Pouring with rain here at the 'outskirts'(dare I use that term, there may be juveniles reading?) of Jerez Spain, for the world motor cycle GP which is about to start in a few hours from now.
Its obvious that the majority of frequent bloggers are taking the day off and chilling out, before the start of the big blow up for the Western Atlantic in the next few weeks.


Hey Red, and those guys will go do that race raining or not. Cool.
Member Since: Febbraio 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4929
Quoting Grothar:


I never discuss politics, religion, climate change or most social issues.

Instead of spending my money on fancy cars and big houses and fine restaurants, I did the smart thing. I married someone who could buy these things for me. I am not now, nor have I ever been in the Social Security System.


I intend to marry a rich girl lol
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97W looking good at this time.

Member Since: Aprile 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13311
"Unusual Heatwave" swoops in at the wire to take the Snow Chief Stakes at Hollywood Park today.

At the moment this race was taking place, a hailstorm raked across Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

For older horse fans, I saw Snow Chief run at Oaklawn Park shortly before he retired in 1987, and he looked like a tank moving down the stretch, flanked on both sides by his attendants. He truly was an awesome horse to watch, with perhaps the biggest chest I've ever seen to this day.

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Quoting MetMan2012:
Haha, hey Groth, who are you gonna be voting for this November?

Either way, Social Security is done for, =).


I never discuss politics, religion, climate change or most social issues.

Instead of spending my money on fancy cars and big houses and fine restaurants, I did the smart thing. I married someone who could buy these things for me. I am not now, nor have I ever been in the Social Security System.
Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
Quoting nigel20:

Hey pedley...what's up?


Just kicking back and enjoying the weekend. Had a small earthquake this morning. (3.8) barely felt it, it was about 2 seconds worth.15-20 miles North. You guys get Hurricanes and I get EQ's
Member Since: Febbraio 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4929
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow...look what is about to hit Louisville.

ouch... this reminded me of July 19, 2006 storm when 80-100 mph struck downtown St. Louis (and during Cardinals game, as I talked about couple posts back). I was in that storm and it still remained to the date as the most violent storm I've ever witnessed. Ok, I'm done with St. Louis posts lol.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
St. Louis local meteorologists are calling it their worst hailstorm in history.
Obviously they weren't there for what St. Louisians called "Storm of the Century" on July 19, 2006... I remembered watching them, and they are terrible.
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Quoting Grothar:


I know, just in a strange mood today. All alone, no one around, rainy, gloomy. I just got tired of calling them blobs, so I decided to use a meteorlogical term.

Is it some sort of per-view to what the Ox-Bridgers,(Oxford-Cambridge,) call the "Commie Holiday,"
All for one, one for all, everybody gets equal wages and the pigs get to sleep in beds with sheets? Animal farm, Orwell, etc.
Pouring with rain here at the 'outskirts'(dare I use that term, there may be juveniles reading?) of Jerez Spain, for the world motor cycle GP which is about to start in a few hours from now.
Its obvious that the majority of frequent bloggers are taking the day off and chilling out, before the start of the big blow up for the Western Atlantic in the next few weeks.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Well at least he had those guitars that got stolen back with him for those shows.

Hey pedley...what's up?
Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7470
289 EugeneTillman: If a present day hurricane (whether small like a Charlie '04 or large like an Ike '08 at peak category 4 or 5 intensity were to take a similar path as Andrew through the Bahama islands, would the shallower waters and subsequently lower TCHP either weaken the cyclone or at the very least inhibit further intensification?

A crossing wouldn't do much to slow a truly intense Major. LOTS more hot water than land, and...
..the highest point in the Bahamas is 63metres(207feet) above sea-level, and most of the land is lower than 12metres(39feet). In the Bahamas and the GrandTurks&Caicos, there are relatively large islands and large parts of islands that are uninhabited because a past hurricane's storm surge washed over their settlements... and nobody figured it was worth their while to rebuild&repopulate.
So even land interactions wouldn't produce much friction to brake such storms.
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Wow...look what is about to hit Louisville.

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St. Louis local meteorologists are calling it their worst hailstorm in history.
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Quoting Patrap:
Tom Petty is on the Acura Stage now at Jazz fest


Well at least he had those guitars that got stolen back with him for those shows.

Link
Member Since: Febbraio 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4929
Louisville is going to get hit hard.

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Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
St. Louis got spared. The rotation was very strong, but it wasn't on the ground. If it was, then we could have gotten another Tuscaloosa here especially with NHL game ongoing.
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New Severe Thunderstorm Watch:

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Quoting Grothar:


That is a tragedy. It has happened a couple of times this past year.


..if you listen near the end of that video, they talk of a manhole cover that was sent airborne.
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Tom Petty is on the Acura Stage now at Jazz fest
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Quoting Patrap:
1 dead, 100 injured as storm packing huge hail overturns tent at St. Louis sports bar



That is a tragedy. It has happened a couple of times this past year.
Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
Quoting Patrap:
Grothar is a SOL child, and as solar cycle 24 ramps up and SOL's magnetic Poles get ready to flip, he can be susceptible to well, "spurious behavior".

It'll pass come Dec,round the 21st I think.

The Mayan's had a good mason who wrote all this down, and today some call it a Calender, when it's actually just Grothar's Birth Certificate in Stone, as the Original Cuneiform one was lost in the Great Flood.

So the story goe's...


I know, just in a strange mood today. All alone, no one around, rainy, gloomy. I just got tired of calling them blobs, so I decided to use a meteorlogical term.
Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
Golf-ball sized hail falling in downtown St. Louis.

Scroll down and click on Cam 3.
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Quoting LargoFl:
thanks for the firsthand..its dangerous out there tonight for sure
I live in North Carolina, but only moved away from STL just few years ago. I remember going to that tent for parties before and after the games and it's just shocking it happened. It's not the first weather related disaster at Busch Stadium III, as on July 19, 2006, a 100 mph winds struck Busch Stadium without warning during Cardinals/Braves. Press windows was knock out of place into the stands and 30 fans had to go to hospital with major injury. Because of that, Busch Stadium is now the SAFEST stadium of any sports in USA whatever severe weather was to occur. Busch Stadium was even awarded a special award from NOAA to declared that.
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Tornado Warning cancelled...crisis averted hopefully.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Grothar, I know you're old. Add another ring to the tree. I think you're just going through a change of seasons.


Metamorphosis!
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Grothar, I know you're old. Add another ring to the tree. I think you're just going through a change of seasons.


Thanks, Cosmic. I don't mind the change in years, it's just the change in millenia that gets to me.
Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
he New England Hurricane of 1938 (or Great New England Hurricane, Yankee Clipper, Long Island Express, or simply the Great Hurricane) was the first major hurricane to strike New England since 1869. The storm formed near the coast of Africa in September of the 1938 Atlantic hurricane season, becoming a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale before making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane[1] on Long Island on September 21. The hurricane was estimated to have killed between 682 and 800 people,[2] damaged or destroyed over 57,000 homes, and caused property losses estimated at US$306 million ($ 41.1 billion in 2012).[3] Even as late as 1951, damaged trees and buildings were still seen in the affected areas.[4] To date it remains the most powerful, costliest and deadliest hurricane in recent New England history, eclipsed in landfall intensity perhaps only by the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635.Weather map from September 21, 1938 featuring the storm
Formed September 10, 1938
Dissipated September 22, 1938
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
160 mph (260 km/h)
Lowest pressure 938 mbar (hPa); 27.7 inHg
Fatalities 682 to 800 direct
Damage $306 million (1938 USD)
Areas affected Bahamas, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, southwestern Quebec.

Before the 1938 New England hurricane, it had been several decades since a hurricane of any significance adversely affected the northeastern Atlantic coastline. Nevertheless, history has shown that several severe hurricanes have affected the Northeast, although with much less frequency in comparison to areas of the Gulf, Florida, and southeastern Atlantic coastlines.

The Great September Gale of 1815 (the term hurricane was not yet common in the American vernacular), which hit New York City directly as a Category 3 hurricane, caused extensive damage and created an inlet that separated the Long Island resort towns of the Rockaways and Long Beach into two separate barrier islands.

The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane, a Category 4 storm which made four separate landfalls in Virginia, New Jersey, New York, and southern New England. The storm created the highest recorded storm surge in Manhattan of nearly 13 feet and severely impacted the farming regions of Long Island and southern New England.

The 1869 Saxby Gale affected areas in Northern New England, decimating the Maine coastline and the Canadian Outer Banks. It was the last major hurricane to affect New England until the 1938 storm.

The 1893 New York hurricane, a Category 2 storm, directly hit the city itself, causing a great storm surge that pummeled the coastline, completely removing the Long Island resort town of Hog Island.
A Westhampton, N.Y. summer residence is scattered over the landscape as if some giant wand spilled a box of matches. The scene occurred after hurricane winds struck on Sep. 21, 1938 on New York's Long Island.
Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
INC025-061-282345-
/O.NEW.KLMK.SV.W.0216.120428T2308Z-120428T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
708 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 706 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CURBY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
CORYDON...
WHITE CLOUD AND WYANDOTTE...
CENTRAL...
NEW MIDDLETOWN AND DOGWOOD...
ELIZABETH AND SEVEN SPRINGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...MOVE QUICKLY TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 8643 3821 8595 3819 8596 3818 8592
3803 8600 3815 8629 3820 8635 3819 8638
3823 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 299DEG 45KT 3828 8635
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

JSD
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33377
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, I know...i was just talking generally

I'm sort of glad somebody "knows," writing/speaking generally but historically is what a lot of people rely on to predict the futue.
That's OK as long as the main factors of general existence on the "blue marble," don't alter too much!
"However," possibly due in part to a slight increase in the ambient background CO2 and other members the its methane,'gang,' we might be in a position whereby history is for historians and reality is for realists, along with today's unborn and early youths!
Basically put the nasty gases up a bit,drag the temps up with them, toss in a lack of regulatory cooling normaly brought about by that 'picturesque ice cap' in the northern latitudes and you might just have to regard history as something that the forefathers went through?
Welcome to the unknown!
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I grew up in St. Louis area and let me say it's just sad what happened outside Busch Stadium just few moment after my St. Louis Cardinals' win over Brewers. Right now, NHL hockey game between Blues and Kings is ongoing and is in the way of tornado's path. Right now, tornado's future path is where 2 millions people lives. THIS IS NOT A JOKE, if there is a tornado on the ground, doesn't matter if it's EF2 or EF5, there will be mass deaths unless they are safe in basement...
thanks for the firsthand..its dangerous out there tonight for sure
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33377
I grew up in St. Louis area and let me say it's just sad what happened outside Busch Stadium just few moment after my St. Louis Cardinals' win over Brewers. Right now, NHL hockey game between Blues and Kings is ongoing and is in the way of tornado's path. Right now, tornado's future path is where 2 millions people lives. THIS IS NOT A JOKE, if there is a tornado on the ground, doesn't matter if it's EF2 or EF5, there will be mass deaths unless they are safe in basement...
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
712 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

INC019-025-043-061-117-175-282345-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-120428T2345Z/
WASHINGTON IN-ORANGE IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-CRAWFORD IN-
712 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...WESTERN CLARK...FLOYD...NORTHERN
HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 711 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FREDERICKSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
CENTRAL BARREN AND PALMYRA...
BRADFORD AND BYRNEVILLE...
GALENA AND GREENVILLE...
EDWARDSVILLE AND SCOTTSVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING HAIL...CAPABLE OF CAUSING EXTENSIVE
PROPERTY DAMAGE AND SERIOUS INJURY. TAKE COVER NOW! AVOID WINDOWS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD IMMEDIATELY MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 8579 3819 8592 3833 8643 3857 8634
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 285DEG 42KT 3841 8624
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$

MP
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33377
Bad memories - I was at ground zero Of Hurricane Wilma (Marco Island Florida) when it hit. I rarely see any reports from Marco, usually just Dade and Broward. I am a mere 5 miles from Cape Romano where Wilma hit. I was in the radar comfirmed Eye.

Here's what I observed first hand:
The 1st half was really bad and lasted quite an uncomfortable while. Winds were constantly NE here in that part of the storm, after the eye passed they were W/NW and non-stop. Aimed directly at my front door.

I believe the thick Areca palm trees that surround my backyard offered a lot of protection (1st half) and possibly diminished the effects as the winds ramped over them somewhat. This should be studied if it hasn't. Could be a huge help in safety and damage?
Bushes as a barrier. Not a single screen blew out on the lanai even though it was horribly windy!

The eye then came ashore! and against good advice I went out to "see". There was a hole overhead. My backyard was loaded armpit high with tree limbs and the house was completely covered thickly in wet shredded grass clippings from the lawn. The storm had acted like a mower! Pretty amazing sight. It was flat calm - I lit my lighter to check, not even a waver. Not a cricket or bird, no sound. Ears ringing so quiet. I quickly tried to decide which way the next wind would approach and park the van directly into the wind so it would not flip. Worked, luckily.

I'll never ever forget my cue to go back inside. I heard this EERIE howling like scary dogs or screams on the horizon. I pictured the winds approaching through the houses like rocks in a stream....as soon as I shut the door,WHOOOOSH! We were back under the gun. I'd say a 15-20 min break total time.

It was low tide on the 2nd half which usually means the water is about 6-8 feet BELOW the top of the seawall across my street. I had heard the wind would be offshore for the 2nd half many times, and surge not a factor. Not the case. NW wind! Not from E whatsoever.

The water was 2 feet ABOVE the seawall and the waves in my 1,400 foot long canal I estimated to be 12-14 feet tall. Possibly higher. They were at least 8 feet over the dock post tops I observed in between swells. When they crossed the edge of the submerged seawall they continued on through a field as 4 footers till they ran out of water and fell flat.

Since it was the upper right quadrant area I had always heard as being "the worst" hit first, I thought that would be the actual worst. HAHA not even CLOSE. It was so much worse when the west half came ashore! I got pretty scared then. And even though my front door was completely boarded up with plywood and tapcon screws I still had to hold it shut on major gusts!

I would hear a rumble as the big gusts appraoched and go hold it shut - which was near impossible, so much so, that the top of door flexed inward approx. 4 inches while the knob was still latched. Amazing how many birds were in the air ...best place to be I guess to avoid debris?

I peered out through a crack in the boards on windows and it was incredibly scary looking. My brother is a firefighter and said their wind gauge indicated a 154mph gusts 125 sustained. I could agree. Y'all will debate on that but after being in numerous 100mph wind events including Andrew etc. It was well above 100mph for hours and hours the gusts were incredible, and far topped those sustained winds.
Even at like 5pm it was still rumbling and I'd say 80 mph in gusts. I can't begin to imagine what Miami went through in Andrew. This was far from that but totally scary.

Also the damage here was far worse (as well) in Andrew. I'm thankful I evacuated a mere 25 miles outside the eye wall. It made all the difference even though winds were still bad. The damage left behind far exceeded Wilmas direct hit. SO I'm glad I didn't get to see that one 1st hand! Wilma was plenty.

For hurricane newbies: Being OUTSIDE THE RED ZONE makes all the difference!! Don't get caught in that like I did (could have been worse). Anyone who saw what "Dade Corners" looked like compared to Homestead or even just 10 miles further south knows. It was like night/day as far as damage and can make all the difference. If it's even gonna be close...leave.

Hopefully nothing on the slate for this year..I've lost interest after Wilma. Least on my own property. The power was off for 12 hours only here even though in less hit places it was off for a week or two.
Stay safe...sorry so long. Bad memories I guess!!
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boy these people are getting hammered tonight........SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
615 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

ILC081-290000-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-120429T0000Z/
JEFFERSON IL-
615 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON
COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 613 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR IRVINGTON...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF
CENTRALIA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 8870 3814 8871 3821 8916 3847 8915
3848 8914 3848 8899 3849 8878
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 276DEG 16KT 3845 8913
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33377
Grothar is a SOL child, and as solar cycle 24 ramps up and SOL's magnetic Poles get ready to flip, he can be susceptible to well, "spurious behavior".

It'll pass come Dec,round the 21st I think.

The Mayan's had a good mason who wrote all this down, and today some call it a Calender, when it's actually just Grothar's Birth Certificate in Stone, as the Original Cuneiform one was lost in the Great Flood.

So the story goe's...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I do not think there is a tornado, but there are definitely extremely damaging winds. If this continues, St. Louis is going to receive a lot of damage from winds over 60 mph.


Speaking of damaging winds, check out the storm heading for Louisville... Epic bow echo... Could be 80mph winds in that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
tornado warning Now...........SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

ILC119-163-MOC189-510-282330-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-120428T2330Z/
MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
615 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LOUIS CITY...CENTRAL
ST. LOUIS...NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 611 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR UNIVERSITY CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

IN ADDITION...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN MARYLAND HEIGHTS
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JENNINGS...BELLEFONTAINE NEIGHBORS...ST. LOUIS...RIVERVIEW...
VENICE...CAHOKIA...MADISON...GRANITE CITY...BROOKLYN AND SAUGET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 9043 3877 9010 3856 9015 3863 9048
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 277DEG 38KT 3867 9030

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.75IN

$$

KANOFSKY
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33377

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SWRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...

VALID 282312Z - 290115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES.

A SUPERCELL WAS MOVING FROM NERN WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO JEFFERSON
COUNTY MO...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MONROE AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES IN IL.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY
FROM SRN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IL INTO MONROE COUNTY. AS THIS PARTICULAR
STORM CONTINUES ENEWD...IT MAY BENEFIT FROM ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO.

..JEWELL.. 04/28/2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Grothar, I know you're old. Add another ring to the tree. I think you're just going through a change of seasons.
LOL.!
Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
I do not think there is a tornado, but there are definitely extremely damaging winds. If this continues, St. Louis is going to receive a lot of damage from winds over 60 mph.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33377
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
INC025-061-282345-
/O.NEW.KLMK.SV.W.0216.120428T2308Z-120428T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
708 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 706 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CURBY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
CORYDON...
WHITE CLOUD AND WYANDOTTE...
CENTRAL...
NEW MIDDLETOWN AND DOGWOOD...
ELIZABETH AND SEVEN SPRINGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...MOVE QUICKLY TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 8643 3821 8595 3819 8596 3818 8592
3803 8600 3815 8629 3820 8635 3819 8638
3823 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 299DEG 45KT 3828 8635
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

JSD
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33377

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.