Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.
Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.
Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.
Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.
Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.
Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.
The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.
I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (30%)
(mod.) Nevermind.
Of course, in OK we'd all be happy with some nice rain and gentle hail.
:)
We're gonna get what we get.
The first song the choir sang, went something like this ...
LOL
people like Ossqss that invite me to do their math for them are just trolls trying to get me to fight mysrelf.re #632
Btw, this a meteorology board; money printing is a different subject.
No problem, to be fair, I didn't use the greatest grammatical structure when coming across there :)
I've been studying all day for finals so that's the reason for my delay of reply, mainly the Calculus 3 final, I pulled off an A on the last test, hopefully I can do so on the final coming up this Tuesday.
what have you been studying for?
Summer in April in Wroclaw. Temperatures 20 degrees above average(of course in Fahrenheit scale). It's a 1-in-a-50-years event. GW anyone?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-301030-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
515 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
...FLOOD WATCH PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
RIP CURRENTS: STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH WAVE ACTION WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES OF MIAMI DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED.
WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY.
WIND: EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH, PARTICULARLY LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FLOODING: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL/METRO
PORTIONS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, AND ALL OF MIAMI
DADE COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRUCTURAL
FLOODING IN SOME LOCALES IN THE WATCH AREA. RAINFALL RATES MAY
OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WAVES: SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON BISCAYNE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
STRONG WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.
$$
Having been a long time lurker on here 2007 I only took up the courage to post on here in the last two months.. It is really difficult to be a new poster here as all new posters are dealt with by suspicion often accused of being trolls Flag ,report and ignore are advised by frequent bloggers of WU.I have only made a couple of comments on here and was accused of being uneducated and misunderstanding just because I had a different view point to the majority
On a personal note Grothar I always enjoy your posts they come across as kind warm and friendly
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
445 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-300845-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
445 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA IN
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AND THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOF THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS CONDITIONS REMAIN NEAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
$$
JOHNSON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012
MOC029-059-291215-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-120429T1215Z/
CAMDEN MO-DALLAS MO-
650 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
DALLAS AND CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...
AT 647 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MACKS CREEK...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMDENTON...ROACH...BARNUMTON...LINN CREEK...OLD LINN CREEK...GREEN
BAY TERRACE AND HURRICANE DECK.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK AND LAKE OF
THE OZARKS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
IF ON OR NEAR LAKE OF THE OZARKS...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MOVE
TO SHELTER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. BOATS CAN BE SWAMPED BY LARGE CAPSIZING
WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE
SHELTER NOW.
&&
LAT...LON 3806 9257 3775 9308 3798 9307 3819 9293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1150Z 221DEG 35KT 3798 9298
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60 MPH
$$
SCHAUMANN
Here in SE Florida, we are drowning.
I dumped 1.6" of rain yesterday at 1pm...
it is pouring all morning... I think from inside the house I can see another inch has fallen already...
1/2 inch in the past hour...
and does not look like it is going to ease up at any time.
and we are forecast to get this for the next 7 days.. YIKES!!!
Let It Rain...Miami NWS
Florida is getting rain
Its gonna be a hot one today
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
517 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
FLZ068-072>074-168-172>174-300000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0002.120429T0917Z-120501T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
METRO PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
517 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...
COASTAL PALM BEACH...FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE...INLAND MIAMI
DADE...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI DADE AND METRO PALM BEACH.
* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WATCH AREA WILL
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, PERHAPS UP TO 8 INCHES IN A FEW LOCALES. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO FALL OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, INCLUDING
THE METROPOLITAN AREAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
&&
$$
Sending your way... I got a large fan on and pointing NORTH. We got enough for a bit and do not mind sharing.
My grass is green again, but if this keeps up I will have fish swimming in the yard. Why is it that we get rain ALL at once? Seems like we either flood and drown or dry up and burn.
Today, Bruce Springsteen.
Published: Sunday, April 29, 2012, 6:20 AM
His 2006 post-Katrina performance set a standard that even he probably can't live up to.
Yeah, but 58 years is pretty close to never!! At the very least, far, far fewer than 200 miles north or 200 miles south. There, now I've jinxed the area.....
000
AXNT20 KNHC 291048
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 84W
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS MORNING. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST
AND MIAMI FLORIDA INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING S OF
26N E OF 83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF 84W WITH E TO
SE WINDS OBSERVED IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...STRONGEST OVER
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LOOKING AHEAD...CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF...HOWEVER THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND UKMET KEEP A SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE PROGRESSING
WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT
EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N82W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS FROM THE LOW TO 14N87W. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 07N62W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND COUPLED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N79W TO 20N83W...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
74W-83W. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY ALOFT WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FRESH EASTERLIES AND
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED QUICK-PASSING LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS. MOST OF
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
No one thinks it will develop.
Haha, you think NOAA has money...
I'd imagine that if they had the money for something like this, they'd be using it to save staffing positions instead of cutting almost 100...
wish I could sent it all up to Central and North Florida... so far nearly 2.5 " just this morning..
add to the 1.6 from yesterday... now over 4" in 2 days.
We already have flooding.. the streets are flooding, the yards are flooding.. the pool is overflowing...
we are all Ducks!
glad we did not have outdoor plans today.
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