Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Moderate Risk of tornadoes for Kansas; 1-year Super Outbreak anniversary

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:21 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012

+33

A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.

Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for April 27, 2012, from our severe weather page.

One-year anniversary of the April 27, 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.

Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to 4:15 to see the worst of the storm.

Video 2. CBS42 meteorologist Mark Prater tracks the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011.

Video 3. Five-minute look at the Tuscaloosa tornado of April 27, 2011 and the damage it wrought.

Jeff Masters

As Is (teach50)

My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.

Categories: Tornado Severe Weather

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101. Patrap 04:44 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

102. MTWX 04:45 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Too high I think... With such a small area potentially under the gun there is a lot of room for a bust forecast today... I would've went with 7 at the most thats why his range is so wide... by increasing the coverage area from 25 mile radius to 50 miles you double your chance of getting a hit... Member Since: Luglio 20, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 1215

103. Grothar 04:50 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19499

104. Grothar 04:59 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Possible tornado outbreak area: Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19499

105. Tribucanes 05:00 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
I think the reason the Gov. hasn't suggested helmets is because, while it couldn't hurt, it's probably not the life saver people may think. That being said, many die in basements from large objects crushing down on them. Problem is they don't just hit your head, anywhere they hit you can be fatal. Think of that brave woman who earlier this year wrapped her kids in carpet and lay on them in the basement. Thanks to a heroic response by her neighbors she survived, but both her legs were severed. Her kids were unscathed, what a quick thinker she was, pretty amazing to think that constructively in a moment such as that. In the long run though they should probably suggest people do it because it can't hurt and would save some lives. For a couple thousand bucks constructing a mini basement safe-room, essentially a box anchored to the floor with a reinforced roof might be the better way to go. Wouldn't do much to save you in an F4 or F5, but F2-F3 damage is where falling debris in the basement is at its worst; it could very well save people from that. Member Since: Aprile 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615

106. weatherbro 05:04 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K: Anybody coming to FL next might want to pack a poncho as it looks. Looks like some upper level energy is going to combine with deep tropical moisture coming up from the Bahamas and Caribbean. eh...Most models have a powerful ridge next week over central Florida. So if anything, it will be hot and dry after this weekend. Most models(following the Euro's lead) have this well East of us by Tuesday. The GFS and CMC are outliers... Member Since: Maggio 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1154

107. bappit 05:05 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting MTWX: thats why his range is so wide... by increasing the coverage area from 25 mile radius to 50 miles you double your chance of getting a hit... Pie are squared. You'd more than double. Member Since: Maggio 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4357

108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:11 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
100. hydrus 4:39 PM GMT on April 27, 2012 +0 Quoting HurricaneDean07: I can officially say, we are approaching the time to watch for our first Tropical wave of the season... Earliest time for a tropical wave to emerge is May 2. Start watching Mid-Africa over the weekend and into next week.Are you sure about that. Action: Quote \| Ignore User Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 10613 watchin waitin as soon as its seen you all will be first to know Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40385

109. hydrus 05:17 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: Tornadoes have hit metro areas before. Tornado outbreaks and outbreak sequences have killed hundreds before. There were a lot of deaths considering todays technology.jmo Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

110. ncstorm 05:19 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
I see the SPC updated their map as well as Dr. Forbes Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8324

111. hydrus 05:19 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: 100. hydrus 4:39 PM GMT on April 27, 2012 +0 Quoting HurricaneDean07: I can officially say, we are approaching the time to watch for our first Tropical wave of the season... Earliest time for a tropical wave to emerge is May 2. Start watching Mid-Africa over the weekend and into next week.Are you sure about that. Action: Quote \| Ignore User Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 10613 watchin waitin as soon as its seen you all will be first to know Thank you..I thought I read somewhere that there was an April wave. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:20 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40385

113. Skyepony (Mod) 05:21 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Windsat looks much healthier than a few weeks ago. Actually made a pass on that blob yesterday.. Never seen this anomily before.. Oceansat ASCAT missed. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29244

114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:22 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40385

115. 7544 05:24 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
hi everyone looks another big rain event for so fl. this weekend . keep the umbrellas handy . wait watch and see Member Since: Maggio 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5922

116. hydrus 05:26 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

117. ncstorm 05:26 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
looks like the 12Z CMC switched gears and carries the moisture to the GOM instead of Florida Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8324

118. hydrus 05:27 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting 7544: hi everyone looks another big rain event for so fl. this weekend . keep the umbrellas handy . wait watch and see Long time no see.. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

119. MAweatherboy1 05:27 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Do you think all the clouds/showers/storms that are already out there will inhibit storm growth later today? Member Since: Febbraio 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6326

120. ncstorm 05:28 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
JMA does the same thing Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8324

121. gordydunnot 05:29 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Leave it to keeper to put everything in proper perspective. Nice work as usual, and Skypony never disappoints. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

122. hydrus 05:31 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting ncstorm: looks like the 12Z CMC switched gears and carries the moisture to the GOM instead of Florida It will probably flip flop a bit next couple days, and then get a handle on it. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

123. kwgirl 05:32 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Good Afternoon. #117 and 120, the forecast this morning when I got up was for the storms to move into the Gulf. It is coming my way, just in time for the weekend. The forecast stated that we would see cloudy day tomorrow and rain into the evening. Let's see if it holds. Member Since: Marzo 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530

124. islander101010 05:34 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
a early rainy season for central america? http://surfinnhermosa.com/#livecam Member Since: Settembre 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2964

125. hydrus 05:36 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:37 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Do you think all the clouds/showers/storms that are already out there will inhibit storm growth later today? from north central kanas southward traveling e thats the area to watch its a compact system but large bombs sometimes come in small packages Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40385

127. StormGoddess 05:37 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting AlwaysThinkin: Well this story is shockingly timely Study: Most victims knew Ala. twisters were coming Just the absolute horror of knowing how awful something like that is coming at you and the terror that you really can't do anything about it....just ugh. Choices nowadays other than being a sitting duck are: a. Completely underground in a storm shelter. b. In a vehicle, heading away from the storm, petal to the metal. We have used option b this year once already. Most likely we will be doing it again. : ) Just thought I would drop by to say hi! Have a great day everyone. Member Since: Giugno 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 569

128. hydrus 05:42 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
48 hour shows a low in the straits.. 132 hour shows it over Northern Florida. 168 hour offshore N.E.Florida. Not a real fast mover on that run.. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

129. StormTracker2K 05:44 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting kwgirl: Good Afternoon. #117 and 120, the forecast this morning when I got up was for the storms to move into the Gulf. It is coming my way, just in time for the weekend. The forecast stated that we would see cloudy day tomorrow and rain into the evening. Let's see if it holds. Member Since: Ottobre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

130. hydrus 05:46 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
The NAM keeps it south of Florida, but that does not mean there wont be some needed rain.. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

131. jeffs713 05:47 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting StormGoddess: Choices nowadays other than being a sitting duck are: a. Completely underground in a storm shelter. b. In a vehicle, heading away from the storm, petal to the metal. We have used option b this year once already. Most likely we will be doing it again. : ) Just thought I would drop by to say hi! Have a great day everyone. A: best option, many don't have the luxury. B: Foolhardy and crazy. In the time it takes you to determine the direction of the storm, determine the safest direction, get into your car, and get going o the right route... the storm could already be passed, or have changed direction. Not to mention... if you needed to go to a point 10 miles to your SE right now, how long would it take you to get there? If a storm is tornado-warned, and 10 miles away. moving at 35mph (roughly normal for a supercell), it would be on top of you in about 15 minutes. This assumes the storm is a point, and not a mass of clouds several miles wide. There is also an option C... C: Get into the best sort of shelter you can find, whether that is a basement, interior room, or under a stairway. If you're in an EF4 or 5, you're screwed anyway. But in the vastly more common types of storms (EF0-EF2), these sorts of shelters will save your life. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

132. StormTracker2K 05:47 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting ncstorm: looks like the 12Z CMC switched gears and carries the moisture to the GOM instead of Florida It did that yesterday too. I think the GFS is right because look at this below as it appears the tropical moisture is going to come up and meet this disturbance coming across the northern Gulf. Infact there are 2 of them that come by next week. Notice the kink in the jet west of FL. This is also the reason why the rain at first is focused on the westside of FL. Member Since: Ottobre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

133. StormGoddess 05:48 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Sorry guys I'm just trying to correct a misspelled word down there and this keeps happening. Ok just consider "petal" changed to "pedal" lol. Member Since: Giugno 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 569

134. StormGoddess 05:48 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
. Member Since: Giugno 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 569

135. StormGoddess 05:48 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
oops Member Since: Giugno 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 569

136. Barefootontherocks 05:49 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Not to take anything away from the one-year anniversary this April 27, thought this might be interesting to some of you. NWS Norman has put together a history page for the 100th anniversary of the Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak on April 27-28, 1912. Includes ~Weather Maps ~Tornado Table shows 6 F4, 6 F3, 8 F2, 1 F1/F0. and more. "The tornado data are based on original U. S. Weather Bureau reports, as well as research done by Tom Grazulis of the Tornado Project, NOAA scientist Don Burgess, and members of the NWS Norman staff." Member Since: Aprile 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16259

137. Barefootontherocks 05:50 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting StormGoddess: Choices nowadays other than being a sitting duck are: a. Completely underground in a storm shelter. b. In a vehicle, heading away from the storm, petal to the metal. We have used option b this year once already. Most likely we will be doing it again. : ) Just thought I would drop by to say hi! Have a great day everyone. Hi, SG. I hear ya. :) Member Since: Aprile 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16259

138. Patrap 05:51 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Kansas City NEXRAD Radar Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation Range 248 NMI Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

139. Patrap 05:55 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
NASA Space Shuttle Enterprise/747 Flyover New York City this am. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

140. 7544 05:56 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting hydrus: Long time no see.. yeap hi hydrus the blobs keep me checking in starting early this season i see lol Member Since: Maggio 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5922

141. StormTracker2K 05:57 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Member Since: Ottobre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

142. Barefootontherocks 05:57 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Dryline looks to be moving east pretty quick today. Member Since: Aprile 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16259

143. hydrus 06:01 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting 7544: yeap hi hydrus the blobs keep me checking in starting early this season i see lol Indeed..Our Caribbean blob seems to be getting some moisture from the Pacific side. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

144. Patrap 06:03 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

145. StormTracker2K 06:03 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Member Since: Ottobre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

146. hydrus 06:03 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Moisture slowly moving in to FL. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

147. Patrap 06:06 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
GOES Atmospheric Animator Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

148. wunderkidcayman 06:06 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
hey guys jest in case you did not know today is my Birthday Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5385

149. ILwthrfan 06:07 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Squall line in Kansas is beginning to look rather nasty... Some interesting weather history being made in the Indianapolis area for the months of March and April. Indianapolis NWS Another Rare Occurrence for Spring 2012 The Indianapolis area will mark another rare occurrence for Spring 2012...the average temperature for April will be about 2 degrees cooler than March. Typically the average monthly temperature increases nearly 11 degrees from March to April. This will be only the second time since 1872 when March was warmer than April. The only other occurrence was in 1907.It is interesting to note that both events were caused by either a record warm or record cold month. In 1907 March was followed by the coldest April of record. This year a record warm March is followed by an April with near normal temperatures.The record warmth of March resulted from an upper level ridge that remained over the Indianapolis area from March 14-22. In April an upper level trough dominated the Indianapolis weather for much of the second half of the month.This unusual phenomenon is not confined to the Indianapolis area. Click here for a web story about this in northern Indiana and here for northern Illinois.Weather records at Indianapolis began in 1871. Unfortunately all of the temperature data is missing for April 1871. Member Since: Febbraio 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1006

150. hydrus 06:08 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
NWS is no longer showing the low for Florida. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14246

151. Grothar 06:09 PM GMT del 27 Aprile 2012
Quoting hydrus: Moisture slowly moving in to FL. Who did that map for you Monet? Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19499

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