Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 06:10 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2012 +42
In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Change
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1551. bappit 12:41 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Next up on FX....2012


Apocalypse Theater
Member Since: Maggio 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4359
1552. washingtonian115 12:43 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting ncstorm:
If you guys want to watch a good movie about the end of the world..rent "The Knowing" with Nicolas Cage.. People who think the sun will be our demise will appreciate it.
I've herd about that one but still haven't look into it.
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1553. nigel20 12:44 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
April 22, SST Anomaly
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1554. weatherh98 12:51 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
I've herd about that one but still haven't look into it.


It's pretty good and creepy
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1555. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:53 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting MississippiWx:


...Not sure if serious.

You got a problem with 2012? :P
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1556. Thrawst 12:56 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Back again. I went out for something, and while gone decided to detour through the area allegedly hit by a tornado. I observed one house with about 1/2 of its roof being replaced, another where an add-on porch seemed to have been wind-shredded, and evidence of high winds in the form of uprooted trees, downed limbs and in the case of larger trees, leaves completely missing. One tree looked like post-cat 2 damage. I didn't get any photos, though.

I dunno how expert our mets are at judging tornado damage; it's not really an area of expertise they woul have concentrated on in their training. I certainly don't have any extensive experience myself. But aside from the roof damage, most of what I saw could have been done by straight line winds over a period of time and given moist soil.

The roof damage looked like tornado, not hurricane. The western side of the roof was perfectly fine; the eastern side was gone.


Dayum, Nassau had a tornado yesterday? I was in Miami xD
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1557. nigel20 12:56 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
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1559. belizeit 01:01 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Mother Nature reminding us again that she is power full it shook quite hard
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1560. TropicalAnalystwx13 01:03 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting belizeit:
Mother Nature reminding us again that she is power full it shook quite hard

It was a magnitude 5.1.
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1561. WxGeekVA 01:03 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting belizeit:
Mother Nature reminding us again that she is power full it shook quite hard


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time

Monday, April 23, 2012 at 00:20:40 UTC
Sunday, April 22, 2012 at 06:20:40 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 15.866°N, 89.182°W
Depth 57.2 km (35.5 miles)
Region GUATEMALA
Distances 64 km (39 miles) WNW of Puerto Barrios, Guatemala
124 km (77 miles) NNE of Chiquimula, Guatemala
200 km (124 miles) NE of GUATEMALA, Guatemala
1130 km (702 miles) ESE of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 16.2 km (10.1 miles); depth +/- 9.3 km (5.8 miles)
Parameters NST=360, Nph=363, Dmin=287.2 km, Rmss=0.75 sec, Gp=112°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=A
Source

Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usc00099n2
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1562. nigel20 01:05 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
April 21, 2011

April 21, 2012
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1563. MAweatherboy1 01:07 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting nigel20:
April 21, 2011

April 21, 2012

The East Pac could have 25 storms this year
Member Since: Febbraio 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6342
1565. belizeit 01:09 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was a magnitude 5.1.
Its been a few years since the last one hit but they always remind me of the one that happened close to the same area in 1976 killing 20000 people in guatemala.
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1566. LargoFl 01:09 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
History shows again and again how nature points up the folly of man
Godzilla!


Gee that is one beautiful picture
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1567. LargoFl 01:10 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
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1568. weatherh98 01:11 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting nigel20:
April 21, 2011

April 21, 2012


El niño in some parts and still la niña in others
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1569. MAweatherboy1 01:11 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting kipperedherring:
Tazmaniac has predicted an early start for EPAC and is calling for 32 storms. What do you think?

32 might be pushing it... I think more like 20-23 storms, maybe 7-9 majors
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1570. nigel20 01:13 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was a magnitude 5.1.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time

Monday, April 23, 2012 at 00:20:40 UTC
Sunday, April 22, 2012 at 06:20:40 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 15.866°N, 89.182°W
Depth 57.2 km (35.5 miles)
Region GUATEMALA
Distances 64 km (39 miles) WNW of Puerto Barrios, Guatemala
124 km (77 miles) NNE of Chiquimula, Guatemala
200 km (124 miles) NE of GUATEMALA, Guatemala
1130 km (702 miles) ESE of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 16.2 km (10.1 miles); depth +/- 9.3 km (5.8 miles)
Parameters NST=360, Nph=363, Dmin=287.2 km, Rmss=0.75 sec, Gp=112°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=A
Source

Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usc00099n2

I've been in a few M5.0
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1571. MAweatherboy1 01:13 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
One severe thunderstorm in the entire country today...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
559 PM PDT SUN APR 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL CHURCHILL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FALLON...

* UNTIL 645 PM PDT

* AT 552 PM PDT...FALLON NAVAL AIR STATION REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FALLON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...FALLON.

PREPARE NOW FOR HIGH WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
DURING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED VERY QUICKLY...AND WILL PRODUCE A BURST OF
HIGH WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY RAPIDLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
BELOW ONE MILE. SEEK SAFE SHELTER...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
GLASS DOORS.

LAT...LON 3971 11892 3968 11861 3936 11870 3938 11893
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 187DEG 11KT 3946 11880

$$

JHW




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1573. LargoFl 01:14 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
going to get a bit nasty up there i guess when this low gets there.............SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
842 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ009-010-012>020-026-027-PAZ067>0 71-230330-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
842 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

.NOW...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11 PM. ANYWHERE BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER
INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST BETWEEN 845 PM AND 11 PM,
WHICH WOULD BRING RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT SO FAR TO THE
TWO INCH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH.

$$
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1574. Patrap 01:16 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
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1575. Patrap 01:16 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    

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1576. aspectre 01:18 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
1499 ScottLincoln I'd be very skeptical of such claims or hypotheses (it is erroneously called a theory) of tsunami debris causing the 2012 North American heatwave or even changing weather in a statistically significant way. Much more evidence would need to be presented, including putting this area of debris in context with previous known events, before this could become more than a very speculative, weakly substantiated hypothesis.

I agree with your points. My quibble was specificly with the misuse of 'pseudoscientific' and 'theory'.
On the other hand, within my memory...
...nobody had ever made such a speculation before. And so no evidence had been gathered, no models had been made for similar previous events. Thus airing the idea might have been useful in spurring folks to gather that kind of data this time around for use in later modeling studies.
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1577. nigel20 01:20 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The East Pac could have 25 storms this year

I think that would be dependent on a moderate to strong el nino
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1578. LargoFl 01:20 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
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1579. belizeit 01:22 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting nigel20:

I've been in a few M5.0
The worst i felt was 7.3 so this was nothing to that . I see a lot of people felt this and from quite a distance to considering it was only a 5.1
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1580. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:22 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
RIS commence
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1581. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:23 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
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1582. LargoFl 01:23 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
after the joplin twister
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1583. TropicalAnalystwx13 01:27 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The East Pac could have 25 storms this year

I doubt it will be that active...maybe in the order of 18-20 storms.
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1584. VAbeachhurricanes 01:28 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Fake or not, 2012 was an excellent movie.

A is my grade for it.


psh not even close... a c+ the physics is terrible and the cgi makes things look extremely fake.
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1585. TropicalAnalystwx13 01:30 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


psh not even close... a c+ the physics is terrible and the cgi makes things look extremely fake.

You try making a completely fake movie look real with tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanoes. :)
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1586. TropicalAnalystwx13 01:32 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
It was quite foggy this morning in Brisbane, Australia.

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1587. nigel20 01:33 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting belizeit:
The worst i felt was 7.3 so this was nothing to that . I see a lot of people felt this and from quite a distance to considering it was only a 5.1

The last time Jamaica had anything close to that was 1907 when most of Kingston was destroyed
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1588. Neapolitan 01:37 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
While it's snowing in the Northeast, there's plenty of heat down the diagonal; Death Valley reached 113 today, for instance, while Phoenix hit 105, tying that city's all-time high temperature record for April. Las Vegas reached 99, also tying its hottest April temp.

According to the SPC, the Big April 2012 Florida Severe Weather Event didn't amount to much; no tornadoes and no hail have yet been reported in the state, and fewer than a dozen wind reports were submitted.
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1589. VAbeachhurricanes 01:37 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You try making a completely fake movie look real with tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanoes. :)


Haha, they
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You try making a completely fake movie look real with tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanoes. :)


Give me 200 million dollars, ill make it easily :)
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1590. nigel20 01:38 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It was quite foggy this morning in Brisbane, Australia.


Thats a nice view
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1591. Patrap 01:41 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
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1592. nigel20 01:51 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting Patrap:



Yesterday's Storm Reports (1200 UTC - 1159 UTC)

I know there are usually overcounting of tornadoes, but do you have undercounting as well?
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1593. GeoffreyWPB 01:57 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Bring it on!!! For West Palm Beach.

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1594. PedleyCA 02:00 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting PlazaRed:
Well You've got:-
Storms, blizzards, heat waves and even had a 91L off your coast!
All we have got is a boring French National election and the standard cold blustery low over the UK.


Did ya have to drag the French into it, roflmao
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1595. PedleyCA 02:08 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was a magnitude 5.1.


A 5.1 is quite an earthquake. It will buckle your knees and shake the hell out of everything nearby and if it isn't sound that will be enough to shake it loose. Been through a few of those sized ones and few over 6.6-6.7
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1596. nigel20 02:15 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Bring it on!!! For West Palm Beach.


Nice temps
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1597. PedleyCA 02:25 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
What's up Nigel.
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1598. oldnewmex 02:27 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
r.e. Neapolitan Post 1588,

This was on WU's page for Truckee, CA (Which is also quite warm today):

... Record high temperature set at Reno Tahoe Airport NV...

a record high temperature of 90 degrees was set at Reno Tahoe Airport NV today.
This breaks the old record of 84 set in 1888.

This also Marks the first time the 90 degree threshold has been
recorded at the Reno Tahoe Airport in the month of April since
temperature observations have been recorded starting on January
1st... 1888.

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1599. winter123 02:28 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Snow breaking out over the Adirondacks. Forecast did not call for any snow there (only over western NY).
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1600. bohonkweatherman 02:29 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Bring it on!!! For West Palm Beach.

Not bad temps, 90s and 100s today between Austin Texas and Southern Calif. 92 here today but No humidity.
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1601. nigel20 02:30 AM GMT del 23 Aprile 2012    
Quoting PedleyCA:
What's up Nigel.

i'm good...how are you pedley?
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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