Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 06:10 PM GMT del 20 Aprile 2012 +42
In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Change
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951. CybrTeddy 10:29 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Says there were no comments..


Dang, now I remember. The Doc deleted most of the comments for the important systems in the 2007 and 2008 hurricane season. Really wish he hadn't.
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278
952. WeatherfanPR 10:29 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Strong ULL

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953. charlottefl 10:30 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Dew point is back to 68 after being at 65 earlier. So we've had some return of moisture. We'll see if there's enough for the ULL to work with.
Member Since: Dicembre 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672
954. txjac 10:30 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Hi all, guess I was too worried about the start of my trip to Oklahoma this past week ...had no problems in getting there on Sunday but it was challange to get back. My flight from Dallas to Houston was canceled on Friday ...and I was on three standby flights and didnt get on any of them ...wound up making it back to Houston about 10:00 this morning ...bad night but happy to be home.

Sadly I leave again tomorrow to go back to Tulsa this time ..please, no more storms
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955. FLWaterFront 10:30 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting reedzone:
I disagree, I think we may see a few clusters of storms later.. Believe you want top believe, things can still turn ugly in a few hours.


Looks to me that the new cluster of storms in the Gulf is forming quite rapidly.

There are also possible hints of rotation, unless I am reading things wrong. Please forgive me if I am reading it wrong, not trying to hype here but it would not be surprising what with all that spin in the atmosphere.
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956. CybrTeddy 10:31 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting charlottefl:


I know if you look back I said LARGE cat 4's. I was implying the storm surge factor. I can testify Charley was a Cat 4, was in the NE eyewall at landfall.


Charlie was 6 mph short of Category 5 at landfall, so that's pretty much a Category 5 in my book.
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278
957. nigel20 10:31 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah I was lurking during that and I don't think it could be much worse! There were 30 comments a minute!

Yeah, you're right after a while I just stop commenting as I could not keep up
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958. masonsnana 10:31 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting charlottefl:


I know if you look back I said LARGE cat 4's. I was implying the storm surge factor. I can testify Charley was a Cat 4, was in the NE eyewall at landfall.
My bad :)
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959. Sfloridacat5 10:31 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
What a dud of a big rain even for S.W. Florida. Local Met was saying 3" - 5" of rain today for our area and I've only seen .33" (and that was last night). I've had no measureable precipitation today.

We really need the rain, so this was a major disappointment. And Sunday afternoon through Tuesday will be breezy and very dry just adding to the fire danger.
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960. charlottefl 10:33 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Funny thing is, Charlie was 6 mph short of Category 5 at landfall.


If you want my personal opinion it was a Cat 5 at landfall, but there's really honestly no difference. If you look at the NHC report on Charley, it says although small in size Charley caused Catastrophic wind damage in Charlotte County FL. That word "Catastrophic" sits next to the description of a Cat 5 on the Saffir Simpson scale.
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961. hurricanealley 10:33 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, you're right after a while I just stop commenting as I could not keep up


The server crashed a good amount of times.
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962. reedzone 10:33 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Looks to me that the new cluster of storms in the Gulf is forming quite rapidly.

There are also possible hints of rotation, unless I am reading things wrong. Please forgive me if I am reading it wrong, not trying to hype here but it would not be surprising what with all that spin in the atmosphere.


Wunderground has some rotation in that new cluster of storms.. We'll see what happens, it's not over yet like most are proclaiming.
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964. Patrap 10:34 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
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965. charlottefl 10:34 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting masonsnana:
My bad :)


It's all good. I was just saying no one on the West Coast has experienced a MAJOR surge event, so when one happens there are more than likely going to be a lot of people unprepared for it.
Member Since: Dicembre 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672
966. GTcooliebai 10:35 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting ncstorm:


You can go back last year when Irene looked it would hit Florida/Gulf Of Mexico according to the models..Chaos!
That's what happens when you worship models like a GOD. The storm had not even formed yet and some including myself would literally sit here and post each run as it was coming out. Sometimes it was a battle to see he could post it first. I think we eventual settled on one person posting the model runs.
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967. nigel20 10:37 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Funny thing is, Charlie was 6 mph short of Category 5 at landfall.

Yeah, Charlie was similar to Andrew in size and it strengthened rapidly after passing over Cuba..it was also moving very fast, I think 20 to 25 mph
Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4553
968. GTcooliebai 10:37 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting reedzone:


Wunderground has some rotation in that new cluster of storms.. We'll see what happens, it's not over yet like most are proclaiming.
It's never over until the event moves out of the picture, we all know mother nature throws a few curve balls from time to time.
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969. FLWeatherFreak91 10:37 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting reedzone:


Wunderground has some rotation in that new cluster of storms.. We'll see what happens, it's not over yet like most are proclaiming.
From Tampa radar?
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970. reedzone 10:39 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
From Tampa radar?


Not sure, some wunderground radar someone posted on the last page, updated frames.. Saw a TVS signature
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971. GTcooliebai 10:39 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
What a dud of a big rain even for S.W. Florida. Local Met was saying 3" - 5" of rain today for our area and I've only seen .33" (and that was last night). I've had no measureable precipitation today.

We really need the rain, so this was a major disappointment. And Sunday afternoon through Tuesday will be breezy and very dry just adding to the fire danger.
I hope this event was enough to put out the fires that was blowing smoke this way.
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972. hurricanealley 10:39 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Does Ike (Blog Member) still post on here?
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973. GeoffreyWPB 10:40 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
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974. FLWeatherFreak91 10:40 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Per water vapor imagery it looks like there are some strong thunderstorms popping up near the center of the upper level low. I'll be damned
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975. seflagamma 10:40 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
here is a blast from the past!!!
Hurricane Wilma's landfall in Leftyy's blog!


543. seflagamma 6:54 AM AST on October 24, 2005

Just got up again after going back to bed around 4am.
It is almost 7am now and the winds are howling and roaring. Raining. Winds from EAst now and wipping my trees. In gusts they lay flat. It is bad now and the worse is yet to come. One wall of screen in my patio (east side) has blown in. I see it is just now making landfall around Marco (if what is see is correct). Did not have time to read


that was my last post from my home computer for a week! LOL

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976. reedzone 10:40 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
I have to go now haha, I'll be back around 9 p.m. IF the SPC downgrades the risk to a SEE TEXT (which is possible), I'll call it a bust. I still think something will happen tonight, we'll see.
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977. masonsnana 10:41 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting charlottefl:


It's all good. I was just saying no one on the West Coast has experienced a MAJOR surge event, so when one happens there are more than likely going to be a lot of people unprepared for it.
You are correct and I totally understand your point on the surge. Last west coast hurricane surge event was Donna correct?
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978. nigel20 10:41 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting hurricanealley:


The server crashed a good amount of times.

It was like a blog on steroids at that time
Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4553
979. LargoFl 10:42 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Per water vapor imagery it looks like there are some strong thunderstorms popping up near the center of the upper level low. I'll be damned
Sun is out over the gulf,with clear skies, might be some heating going on out there
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980. N3EG 10:42 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting EugeneTillman:
Philip Humber of the Chicago White Sox pitches perfect game, beating Seattle 4-0.


If you knew the Mariners, you'd understand.
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981. LargoFl 10:42 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting reedzone:
I have to go now haha, I'll be back around 9 p.m. IF the SPC downgrades the risk to a SEE TEXT (which is possible), I'll call it a bust. I still think something will happen tonight, we'll see.
ok reed see ya later when the action starts
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982. seflagamma 10:43 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
almost time to leave work finally!!!

you all enjoy the rest of your eveing.
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983. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:43 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting txjac:
Hi all, guess I was too worried about the start of my trip to Oklahoma this past week ...had no problems in getting there on Sunday but it was challange to get back. My flight from Dallas to Houston was canceled on Friday ...and I was on three standby flights and didnt get on any of them ...wound up making it back to Houston about 10:00 this morning ...bad night but happy to be home.

Sadly I leave again tomorrow to go back to Tulsa this time ..please, no more storms

Tulsa, OK is in the clear through at least the middle, if not the end, of the week.
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984. Patrap 10:44 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    


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985. charlottefl 10:44 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting masonsnana:
You are correct and I totally understand your point on the surge. Last west coast hurricane surge event was Donna correct?


There was surge with Donna, but because of the way it came in it was a lot less than if it had approached at the same speed from the NW Caribbean or Bay of Campeche.
Member Since: Dicembre 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672
986. nigel20 10:46 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting seflagamma:
almost time to leave work finally!!!

you all enjoy the rest of your eveing.

Same to you seflagamma
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988. Patrap 10:48 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
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989. LargoFl 10:49 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
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990. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:51 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Neat, lol.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13 (August 22, 2011):
This is what I see right now...There is a weakness located just to the north of Irene. That being said, a brief more northerly motion should occur soon. However, it shouldn't last long as the Bermuda high begins to move back in. Then, a second trough should come in. This will, just as the first one, turn Irene north some, but the Bermuda high will build back in and force the system was westward. Lastly, another trough should move in, which should be the strongest, and this should take Irene NNW/N into northeastern South Carolina or southeastern North Carolina.

At this time, I am predicted a low-mid level Category 3 hurricane, but if Irene undergoes rapid intensification, a Category 4 cannot be ruled out.
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991. nigel20 10:54 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


>
seems as if most of the rain is off to the east of Florida and Over sections of northern Bahamas
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992. LargoFl 10:54 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
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993. RobDaHood 10:55 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
<
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994. Grothar 10:56 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


I wish we could post the animations on these, Pat.

If this were a surface low......


Link
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995. LargoFl 10:56 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting nigel20:
yes it does alright
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996. LargoFl 10:58 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


I wish we could post the animations on these, Pat.

If this were a surface low......


Link
gee looking at that it seems like its headed straight for central florida
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997. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:59 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Laughing at some of the posts I made on the blog during Irene.
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998. LargoFl 10:59 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
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999. tampahurricane 10:59 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Is the cluster of storms forming off the west cost of central Florida, the possible forming squall line?
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1000. charlottefl 11:00 PM GMT del 21 Aprile 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Laughing at some of the posts I made on the blog during Irene.


Never driving that far again in such a short period of time. LOL.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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