Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:26 AM GMT del 19 Aprile 2012 | +26 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Heaviest rain from low pressure events coming from the gulf tend to lign up around my area I've noticed, hopefully that will be the case this time as well :)
Most likely its because thick cloudiness from low pressure systems limit instability over land but the warmer gulf waters with a strong breeze allows for a continual energy source. We can get massive rain evens here on the West Coast of Florida from lows in the gulf sometimes.
Agreed...our best opening batsman is Chris Gayle, but he's in the IPL as well
As I expalained though, GFS numbers are coming in less and less over the last few runs, as you can see there it shows less rain then the last 2 runs, not drastically less but its still headed in the direction we don't want. But then again, nobody ever said weather has to follow the models, the GFS could be wrong, I don't really like the way it sets up its convective structure with the low, it seems very unlikely for this type of system which makes me a bit suspicious the way it is handling the low. Remember the low doesn't even exist yet, its possible we could get less rain than expected, or possible even more. A well organized low would likely produce several inches in some places even though it won't hang around that long because PWAT's will soar into deep tropical values.
However, its also possible that this low won't really be much and we'll just have a cold upper trough swinging through which would be nothing more than some scattered strong storms-the scenario we don't want.
Yup and models are now showing this. It almost seems a warm front is going to set up across C FL and this looks like it will act as a focus for very rains and strong storms training over the same areas for maybe 12 hours or more. You and I know living here sometimes these record rain events can go un-noticed. This deep tropical moisture that's in place will act as an ignitor for the system as it hit the C Gulf.
You are way off there. The GFS has been showing higher totals the last couple of runs and higher convective signitures. ??????
You are correct, that was a misprint, my mistake, lol :)
lol not from what I've seen, I just checked the last operational run and it came in looking weaker, the SPC even talks about it.
Yeah from last night and this morning????
Damm! The SOI just keeps plummiting!
Yeah it does look like there may be a stationary warm front feature that will set-up from my area across yours. If we actually do get a solid surface low moving across Central Florida with the cold upper low overhead as well I can almost assure you there will be very showers and thunderstorms and a lot of them. Moisture will be very high. This old front that stalled over us is helping to steadily pull the tropical air from the far south up into Florida, setting a good environment for the weekend.
Just remember though, we can't be sure of this event yet because its hard to say what will actually happen with respect to the complex low pressure system.
HRRR become operational on May 1st, replacing the RUC for short-term forecasts!
Link
Yeah this moisture is streaming up from the NW Caribbean and you can really feel it now as dewpoints are around 70 or even higher in some cases.
FXUS62 KTBW 192351
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
751 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012
.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING THE MARINE
LAYER INLAND. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH WARM
RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
DEVELOPING SCENARIO OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG U/L LOW DIGS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MUCH TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS AS LOCATION OF MID LEVEL JET AND BEST
U/L DYNAMICS REMAIN IN DOUBT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY VERY POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY COME IN TWO SEPARATE EVENTS...FIRST A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO LATE SATURDAY. THEN THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
CORE U/L LOW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING AND OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN. THE FURTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS...THE FURTHER SOUTH THE SQUALL LINE WILL SET-UP AND MAY
ONLY IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRI
BUT WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO CONTINUE VFR FORECAST WITH VCSH TO
COVER THEM. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR FRIDAY AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...35/JOHNSON
Dorian Gray????
Looks like you had a dry one for a change.
The SOI was 7.7 yesterday so it went up a bit
yeah but if you look closly at the end it is now riseing
Yes, we needed a brake... Today it was sunny.... very pleasant day...
The plunge has stopped for now as it is going up from 8.0 that was a couple of days ago. The daily SOI has turned positive and the 30 day one follows.
Link
345 Hurricanes101: Most of the ones I saw showed a deepening non-tropical core low...
The path models' predictions weren't anything that their algorithm designers would wanna brag about.
And while I didn't look closely at many of them, the isobar charts that I did expand enough to read the numbers predicted minimum pressures under 1000millibars.
What we've seen are rising pressures of 1002mb, 1003mb, 1004mb, 1005mb, and 1006mb.
carefull what you wish for
Its decent for spring, by Saturday it will probably be quite a bit higher than those values, maybe around 2 inches.
I can remember a number of MSC events in Central Florida where large hail (up to 3" in diameter) fell in various places, during the months of March, April and May, over the years.
If a warm frontal boundary sets up in proximity to the low center across Central Florida, this could also serve as a focusing mechanism for tornadoes, similar to events in February of '98 and February of '07.
The models are inconsistent with the precise placement of the low center, its eventual strength, etc. But the same models have been more consistent in predicting a cold core system passing directly overhead here and the jet stream diving across mid-Florida. It is rare for that to happen, especially this late in the season.
You can see the correlation with the sst anomaliesin the eastern pacific
april 16
april 19
Yeah I agree, hail is rare here in Florida mainly because instability in Florida is usually not from cold core lows, its usually surface based thermal energy that makes it unstable in relative to cooling with height, but generally speaking most of the biggest thunderstorms that we get here don't involve significant cold core pockets aloft. I don't know why people have myth in their head that tornadoes are rare here, and yes most of them are weak but we have had quite a good number of F1 to f2 tornadoes and they still do nasty damage. Anyways, its really large hail that is rare here due to the fact that that the atmosphere is much warmer through the column most of the time.
I have seen many 50,000 ft tall monsters pass over me that the radar even thinks would have large hail but hails to ever produce it. I've only seen hail twice in my 15 years of living here.
Any ways, regarding the warm front, yes, tornadoes can be a threat along warm fronts in a warm and moist setup. I have seen some big super cells fire along warm fronts with these type of system before.
Really the lack of severe mention by the SPC is due to the lack of confidence, they don't have any reason to feel confident about the severe threat even though there is certainly potential for one. I don't have confidence in it either right now. I'm just discussing the multiple solutions that could result.
Yeah that was the last one I looked at, I thought it was strange myself. the folks at the NWS I think are discounting it right now as they aren't even mentioning it.
It's still running, the 00z run.. Looks like a really bad run, it just doesn't make sense.
Have you seen any of the photos of the smog from India and China I've posted. That thick smog is changing the whole atmosphere, making the weather act weird, decreasing oxygen content, melting the ice cap. If you think coal or oil has more of an up side than solar, you will probably be voting for your own extinction.
The solar panels in India will also never be the cause of any war. They will just generate power. Pure and simple.
Yeah I wouldn't buy it, it suffering some errors right now.
Many TV mets in this area repeat the mantra that "we don't get the big tornadoes that they get in the Midwest and the Plains states. Ours are mostly weak, EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes with summer thunderstorms and they last only for a minute or two."
This is a classic example of generalizing. In truth, Florida can get violent and deadly tornadoes which can compete with those in the Midwest when conditions come together just right, as may possibly happen this weekend. But it is just as likely that the necessary setup for that will not develop.
As you said, the backing off on mentioning severe Wx potential is mainly because of the lack of certainty, which in turn is in part due to the lack of hard data for observation at this point. For instance, the low center has not even formed yet upstream. But I digress..
The tornado potential in Florida is often understated, which is part of the reason that those in the general public are often completely taken by surprise here when potentially deadly twisters do in fact touch down. Another reason for this is the tendency in the mind to associate Florida with hurricanes, thus canceling out any association with tornadoes. "Tornadoes happen in Oklahoma, not Florida." This is the same principle as the idea that earthquakes happen in California, not the mid Mississippi valley (New Madrid fault system), where river floods from heavy rains happen instead. You get the picture. ;-)
Checking out the 12Z GEOS-5..looks like a nightmare for Wanee. The worst coming through Sat evening during Furthur & The Allman Bothers.
Pollution destroys space. The footprint of a solar farm seems large, but the footprint of oil and coal has to include the mining waste, air pollution, spills of toxic chemicals and the wars fought over finite resources. This solar farm is a lot more efficient than the half a planet that carbon based energy has destroyed.
From white clouds and red sticks that worry;
moving swiftly along on a terrible journey.
Hearing not then, but now is here when;
forgotten souls, howl where we’ll send.
Lord of the earth, subdue power the air;
make then mark a transition be where.
Unstem rotation, bound to be topped;
a towering, stammering, horizon unlocked.
Enough evidence for a Slight Risk from Tampa/Orlando, southward. Great call by the SPC.. However, if the Low (that hasn't formed yet) moves north into North Florida as I was forecasting earlier, the Slight Risk will most likely be adjusted north.
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