Damaging freeze hits the Midwest U.S.
Large portions of the Midwest U.S. shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and freezing temperatures extended as far south as Tennessee and North Carolina. Though the cold temperatures were not unusual for this time of year, they likely caused widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last month's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards, and some even rented helicopters in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. Temperatures of approximately 28°F will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25°F will produce a 90% kill rate. Temperatures of 25° were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota this morning, and I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry. There have been numerous freezes and frosts over the Midwest's fruit growing regions since late March, and orchards are definitely taking a major beating from the weather. It will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known, but I think that so far it is unlikely that the industry has suffered a billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.
Figure 1. Temperatures this morning dipped below freezing across most the northeast quarter of the country, extending into Tennessee and North Carolina. Image taken from our wundermap with the new "go back in time" feature turned on.
History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:
1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.
2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.
3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.
4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.
5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.
6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.
Record warmth in the Western U.S.
As is often the case when one part of the country is experiencing much cooler than average temperatures, the other half is seeing record warmth, due to a large bend in the jet stream that allows warm air to flow northwards. Much of Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado experienced record warm temperatures yesterday. Most notably, Jackson, Wyoming hit 72°F, the earliest 70° reading in their history, and 27° above their normal high of 45°.
Figure 2. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
Tornado outbreak possible Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma
A significant tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. A warm, unstable airmass will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, and strong jet stream winds will create plenty of wind shear. There is the potential for long-track strong tornadoes over Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday, and SPC has has issued their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk," for the region.
First named storm in the Atlantic possible next week
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that an extratropical "cut-off" low will separate from the jet stream early next week several hundred miles east of Bermuda, and linger for several days over subtropical waters with temperatures in the 22 - 24°C range. These ocean temperatures may be warm enough to allow the storm to organize into a named subtropical storm. However, climatology argues against such an occurrence; there has been only one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851. If a subtropical storm does form next week, it would probably not affect any land areas.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Never know, Somewhere on the west coast of CONUS could have a mega quake in minutes, hrs from now.
Is that a forecast for Saturday?
Neutrinos heating up the Earth's core.
I sort of agree with you. On one hand they want to make people in tune with how serious this event has the potential to be, but on the other hand may induce panic too.. And you know now... If the event ends up not being comparable to last years outbreak, the the general public will crucify the SPC!
MAP 5.6 2012/04/12 14:50:53 37.539 141.568 23.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2012/04/12 14:46:28 3.287 93.729 27.8 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
USGS/a>
LOL!
1099. 1911maker 12:40 AM GMT on April 12, 2012 +1
Quoting Patrap:
Three Friday the 13ths, 13 weeks apart, a rarity
Thanks, and from the link
It's hard not to feel something about Friday the 13th, Fernsler says. "I find that 95% of people in the world are superstitious about something, and the other 5% are liars," he said.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: February 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
its the 2012 luck of the draw
Charley hit us on Friday the 13th.. And I dont mind saying that I am superstitious about certain things.
Sounds like a Wall Street quote...
Women and children first you say? that is what they are... ;)
Maybe they should tell the general public how to react. Every time there's a chance for a major severe weather outbreak, the public in the area is warned, appropriately.
It might go something like this... In caps to make it sound more serious, obviously.
You are in an area where there is a high probability for a major severe weather outbreak including tornadoes. Please note that not every area in the region will get hit but most likely, more than a few places will. These weather events may drastically change your lives if affected by either very strong winds, tornadoes, very large hail and localized flash flooding from downpours. As stated, however, not every locale will get hit by some form of severe weather in the risk area. Be on the lookout throughout the day for signs of severe weather.
Many people don't know that a risk area means a probability that a certain region will get hit by severe weather because I think it isn't clear enough that it is a probability and not a certainty. Some people's perspective on life is so narrow that they think that if they are in the warned area and nothing happens TO THEM then they are disappointed and lose confidence. It should therefore be clearly stated that there isn't a 100% chance that one will see severe weather in the risk area. Obviously, many people will not see severe weather in the risk area every time there's an outbreak so there's bound to be at least a large portion of people losing trust until it is clearly stated.
Morning thoughts...
Megathrust earthquakes are those that occur on subduction zone (convergent boundary in which one plate moves under another tectonic plate). While these plates are subducted by each other...large sections of these plates get stuck and when a sudden slip in one of these plates occur we get a megathrust quake.
I get up to that area every summer I can afford it... still haven't climbed any mountains yet [except in a car], but I'm sure I'll get there one day.... lol
thanks in advance....
In short it's a vertical thrust, which means bad if in the ocean.
Looking at the GFS meteogram, the atmosphere is getting more moist due to persistent SE flow from the Gulf. This, combined with a shortwave embedded within a longwave trough, and a front coming through (slowly), led to LOTS of precip over a day.
Thanks for summarizing what I said in one line
Yeah we've hit 90 or higher now 7 times so far this year at my location and we typically don't hit 90 until May.
Can u say liquefaction?
I've read some reliable accounts of steamers sinking during hurricanes where all the survivors were the male leadership of the ships - captain, mates, etc - while the 600 casualties included all the women and children passengers...
Chivalry only lasts until reality sets in. Then it's each man for himself.
We usually get a 90 in late may and we have came close already
Thanks for the response. I live in Fort Worth and would be interested in anything you have for this area.
thanks again. I appreciate your time.
Bad for the ocean but worse if your a nearby landmass.
I like things simple, I work around engineers, and they drive me nuts
Dallas shows a similar event (a bit earlier than Houston, though), but not to the same magnitude. Looks like there isn't as much lift associated with the north texas end of the event, so precip totals won't be quite as heavy.
my general comment is that common people would not be able to distinguish a mesocyclone from any other kind.
its not fair to put this burden of knowledge onto them. they have more important things to worry about, like what kind of beer to bring to the tailgate, or who is going to take their kid to soccer practice.
Thanks...I appreciate the summary. Hope you have a great day!
WARNING AREA
I'm studying engineering, so don't expect anything better from me
And sadly that is what is wrong with society today, they live in their dream world and....unfortunately these kind of people have it coming for em, natural selection. If you don't take in your surroundings and the true world you live in, you will perish.
You don't need knowledge to know when and where to seek shelter. As soon as the sky is dark, seek some form of shelter. It should be instinctive. If they are appropriately warned that they are in an area with a heightened chance of severe weather and they see dark skies - it should kick off an instinct inside of them to seek shelter immediately because they trust the message being sent to them. No need for any knowledge, just trust.
I think that if the wording was much clearer, trust would be gained and people would take action when menacing weather unfolds.
April 12, 2012
We have now surpassed 2011 completely
Power in numbers, euro and gfs
probsbly 50 mph tops
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