Damaging freeze hits the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:46 PM GMT del 12 Aprile 2012

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Large portions of the Midwest U.S. shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and freezing temperatures extended as far south as Tennessee and North Carolina. Though the cold temperatures were not unusual for this time of year, they likely caused widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last month's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards, and some even rented helicopters in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. Temperatures of approximately 28°F will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25°F will produce a 90% kill rate. Temperatures of 25° were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota this morning, and I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry. There have been numerous freezes and frosts over the Midwest's fruit growing regions since late March, and orchards are definitely taking a major beating from the weather. It will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known, but I think that so far it is unlikely that the industry has suffered a billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.


Figure 1. Temperatures this morning dipped below freezing across most the northeast quarter of the country, extending into Tennessee and North Carolina. Image taken from our wundermap with the new "go back in time" feature turned on.

History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:

1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.

2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.

4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.

6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.

Record warmth in the Western U.S.
As is often the case when one part of the country is experiencing much cooler than average temperatures, the other half is seeing record warmth, due to a large bend in the jet stream that allows warm air to flow northwards. Much of Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado experienced record warm temperatures yesterday. Most notably, Jackson, Wyoming hit 72°F, the earliest 70° reading in their history, and 27° above their normal high of 45°.


Figure 2. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Tornado outbreak possible Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma
A significant tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. A warm, unstable airmass will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, and strong jet stream winds will create plenty of wind shear. There is the potential for long-track strong tornadoes over Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday, and SPC has has issued their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk," for the region.

First named storm in the Atlantic possible next week
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that an extratropical "cut-off" low will separate from the jet stream early next week several hundred miles east of Bermuda, and linger for several days over subtropical waters with temperatures in the 22 - 24°C range. These ocean temperatures may be warm enough to allow the storm to organize into a named subtropical storm. However, climatology argues against such an occurrence; there has been only one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851. If a subtropical storm does form next week, it would probably not affect any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Minnemike:
that shelter you showed was clearly the best option.. if one has a Lot of lead time, they can drive away from an area if they know where other storms are..
but making the best decision in short time involves limited options for many.
your original point has merit! basements are not equal to the safety of true storm shelters.

That is what I was trying to get at, too... I just didn't want people to feel that a basement was not a good option. It is a good option. The best option is a true storm shelter, but that isn't available to most people.

If faced with basement vs. driving, I'm going to choose basement almost every single time.

That said, I'm in the same situation as GeorgiaStormz... I don't have a basement, so my happy rear end will be hiding under the stairs in the middle of my house.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
571. MahFL
The new tornado warnings now even say "This storm is not survivable", so I am not sure what you do in that situation, maybe get drunk real quick ?
Also many who died in Joplin were in restaurants and never even heard the sirens. By the time they realized a big tornado was coming it was too late for some.
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Quoting weatherh98:


crazy stuff huh.?
I just saw the text forecast from the SPC and it has been a while sense I last saw that strong of wording. This will most likely be the main event of the entire tornado season. Also Sunday seems like it may turn out to be a nasty outbreak.
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Quoting weatherh98:


flatter then tell em they are wrong:)

I did that so Taz knows it isn't personal.

Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
NOAAs National Weather Service to discuss central
U.S. severe weather threat



Severe weather is expected in the central U.S. through this coming weekend, and tornadoes and large hail could be especially threatening on Saturday. This severe weather is expected in a region where the National Weather Service has already equipped many of its Doppler radars with Dual Polarization technology, which can better detect when and where tornadoes are on the ground. Parts of this region are also testing stronger call-to-action wording in tornado warnings to further help protect lives and create a more weather-ready nation.

NOAA Press Conference Info

Says 1p.m. Central time.


I hope this gets televised at least by TWC and some of the News networks.

It doesn't say who in the News, if anybody, is going to be covering this conference.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wow I just saw they issued a High Risk for tomorrow! Going to be one hell of an outbreak. Everyone stay safe out in the plains tomorrow.


crazy stuff huh.?
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
cmc


ecmwf


gfs



MAYBE!
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Wow I just saw they issued a High Risk for tomorrow! Going to be one hell of an outbreak. Everyone stay safe out in the plains tomorrow.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
what evere am done with this
that shelter you showed was clearly the best option.. if one has a Lot of lead time, they can drive away from an area if they know where other storms are..
but making the best decision in short time involves limited options for many.
your original point has merit! basements are not equal to the safety of true storm shelters.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
what evere am done with this


okay see ya taz... Hey on the bright side,48 days and hurricane season we go
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting jeffs713:
Taz,

Basing your stance upon a rather rare set of events (F5 tornado, cars landing in the basement, etc.) is foolhardy at best. Also, no mention was given to what was in the ceiling of the basement in the case you quoted. They mention 8-inch slab... but I don't see any evidence of that in the damage (it looks like they had wood on top of brick, as there is no rebar sticking out of the brick walls, and no concrete debris).

I normally don't say this, especially to someone whom I respect such as yourself... but you are wrong on this, bro.


flatter then tell em they are wrong:)
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
what evere am done with this
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Taz,

Basing your stance upon a rather rare set of events (F5 tornado, cars landing in the basement, etc.) is foolhardy at best. Also, no mention was given to what was in the ceiling of the basement in the case you quoted. They mention 8-inch slab... but I don't see any evidence of that in the damage (it looks like they had wood on top of brick, as there is no rebar sticking out of the brick walls, and no concrete debris).

I normally don't say this, especially to someone whom I respect such as yourself... but you are wrong on this, bro.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
Quoting jeffs713:

It is making the judgement call to run that is the problem. For people like us here on the blog, who have an above-average knowledge of weather, we will make the right decision more often than not regarding what to do in a storm.

For the average person, who does not have an intimate knowledge of weather... they are much more likely to make the wrong decision (driving away from a 60mph tornado, for example). It is a matter of "keep it simple, stupid". Don't make people over think it, especially when their lives are at stake. In an EF5 able to tear asphalt apart... There isn't much short of a concrete bunker that will save you. You are likely to be safer in a basement than you are out driving. Yes, people can die in a basement... but they are more likely to die in their car than they are in the basement.



I dont have a basement, so if my house gets wiped clean, im gone too.
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Quoting JNCali:
The problem is.. which way do you run?? You don't know where the funnel is gonna go?!


The oppodite side of the horizon is my guess.
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting RTSplayer:


That's just it man.

Last year, a significant number of the people who DIED were in the basement.


It was so much so, that even the Weather Channel was questioning whether the basement was the right thing to do in an EF4 or EF5.


Obviously, it's a heck of a lot better than being on the surface, but even in the 1990's in the Jarrel tornado(F5,) people died in their basements who could have out-run the storm on FOOT.
The problem is.. which way do you run?? You don't know where the funnel is gonna go?!
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Quoting jeffs713:

It is making the judgement call to run that is the problem. For people like us here on the blog, who have an above-average knowledge of weather, we will make the right decision more often than not regarding what to do in a storm.

For the average person, who does not have an intimate knowledge of weather... they are much more likely to make the wrong decision (driving away from a 60mph tornado, for example). It is a matter of "keep it simple, stupid". Don't make people over think it, especially when their lives are at stake. In an EF5 able to tear asphalt apart... There isn't much short of a concrete bunker that will save you. You are likely to be safer in a basement than you are out driving. Yes, people can die in a basement... but they are more likely to die in their car than they are in the basement.


That was excellent and the completely right thing, its a decision that people must make.
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting weatherh98:

I think he means that if you know ones coming and it's an EF 5 run as fast as you can out of the way

At best, we can tell if a tornado will be strong vs. weak from storm spotters and radar, but there is not way to know for certain that a tornado will be an EF4/5 until it is rated.
Quoting RTSplayer:


That's just it man.

Last year, a significant number of the people who DIED were in the basement.


It was so much so, that even the Weather Channel was questioning whether the basement was the right thing to do in an EF4 or EF5.


Obviously, it's a heck of a lot better than being on the surface, but even in the 1990's in the Jarrel tornado(F5,) people died in their basements who could have out-run the storm on FOOT.

If those same people who were in the basement were instead on their main floor, do you think they would have lived instead?

Even with the slow movement of the Jarrel tornado, it was at least 1/2 mile wide at that time and had strengthened rapidly before hitting the subdivision. I highly doubt there was any way know the tornado was that serious, know if was moving that slowly and would continue at that speed, and then with enough time remaining survive the near-tornado environment on foot.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
here is a tip if there a EF5 comeing right at your house and you no this for about a few hrs now here the thing dont ride it out in your house or bassmnet get in your car and drive a way if its day light that is
when you discover the secret for knowing an EF5 is coming at your house hours in advance, do let us and the world know!!

in the meantime, better advice for when you know an EF5 is coming at your house, which is maybe 15-20min at best, your basement is #1 if an actual storm shelter is not a quick jog away. if you get in a car in that time frame, your chances of injury skyrocket!!
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Quoting RTSplayer:


That's just it man.

Last year, a significant number of the people who DIED were in the basement.


It was so much so, that even the Weather Channel was questioning whether the basement was the right thing to do in an EF4 or EF5.


Obviously, it's a heck of a lot better than being on the surface, but even in the 1990's in the Jarrel tornado(F5,) people died in their basements who could have out-run the storm on FOOT.

It is making the judgement call to run that is the problem. For people like us here on the blog, who have an above-average knowledge of weather, we will make the right decision more often than not regarding what to do in a storm.

For the average person, who does not have an intimate knowledge of weather... they are much more likely to make the wrong decision (driving away from a 60mph tornado, for example). It is a matter of "keep it simple, stupid". Don't make people over think it, especially when their lives are at stake. In an EF5 able to tear asphalt apart... There isn't much short of a concrete bunker that will save you. You are likely to be safer in a basement than you are out driving. Yes, people can die in a basement... but they are more likely to die in their car than they are in the basement.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
Basement? who needs a basement!
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Quoting jeffs713:

Even that is dangerous, as a storm can easily turn, speed up, or another storm could get you.

Best advice - don't be on the road if you don't need to be.


Oh i complpletely agree! Hunker down baby! but, I think that is what Taz meant
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting RTSplayer:


Unfortunately, this is true.

They've been finding that ordinary basements do not protect people very well against the top half of EF4 and above.

Saw some of that last year, and it was sad, because people did what they were "supposed to" and got killed or maimed (amputees) anyway.


Just because people still die in basements during the strongest of tornadoes does not mean that basements are not the statistically-safest places to be during such events. We do not have large datasets of people driving away vs. staying basements during the same tornadic conditions by which to accurately compare mortality/injury statistics. Even so, the evidence we do have strongly suggests that being stuck in traffic in a vehicle is orders of magnitude more dangerous than being below ground during a tornado.
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basement are death traps is not a safe place too be in a nado


here is why




and here the news story on it


NEAR POCAHONTAS, Iowa (KTIV) -- It was a fight for survival in what one family thought was the safest place they could be.

"If I hadn't seen those funnels, I probably wouldn't have went until the glass started breaking," says farmer, Jim Murray.

It was enough fear that got Jim Murray into his storm cellar, now a little difficult to recognize, with his wife.

"She'd been through it before so she was actually in that room 45 minutes before I got in there. She was already nervous," says Murray.

Nervous for what was about to happen.

"We had an 8-inch slab of cement on top of the storm cellar and that went. The door blew out, and we were hanging on for dear life after that," says Murray.

A terrifying moment that had Murray wondering whether they'd survive.

"I thought we were going to get sucked right out of there," says Murray.

And there's another aspect of the story that seems to be a bit surreal.

The pick-up truck, which was in the garage before the tornado struck, ended up in the basement afterwards, landing on their pool table.

"If we would have been under the pool table, we would have been squashed," says Murray.

And as for the rest of the property, there isn't a lot to show for it.

"It's pretty much a total loss. I mean, there's not much left to salvage at all, no trees, no nothing," says Murray.

And although Murray walked away safely from this experience, he's offering himself some new advise about not hesitating to get underground.

"Get your butt down in there. So, that's what I'm going to do next time," says Murray.




now this kind is a safe place to be

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Quoting weatherh98:

I think he means that if you know ones coming and it's an EF 5 run as fast as you can out of the way

Even that is dangerous, as a storm can easily turn, speed up, or another storm could get you.

Best advice - don't be on the road if you don't need to be.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
Quoting jeffs713:

Remember - houses in OK and KS aren't built like houses in the deep south. OK and KS is tornado country. The houses, and ESPECIALLY the basements, are built to a higher standard, and much more storm resistant. Worrying about splinters and such is pointless. In a major tornado, hiding in a basement isn't designed to save you from any possible injury. It is designed to SAVE YOUR LIFE. You *will* have cuts and bruises. You will also be able to see the next sunrise.


That's just it man.

Last year, a significant number of the people who DIED were in the basement.


It was so much so, that even the Weather Channel was questioning whether the basement was the right thing to do in an EF4 or EF5.


Obviously, it's a heck of a lot better than being on the surface, but even in the 1990's in the Jarrel tornado(F5,) people died in their basements who could have out-run the storm on FOOT.
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Quoting JNCali:
I think the essence of the thought is to not stray too far away from your 'basement'. I would imagine that the storms will not be moving linear faster than 40 mph but the potential of rapid vertical development and intensification could catch people off guard. If I lived in that area I would not be planning on taking any road trips..

With a 110-knot jet above the storms.. I wouldn't be surprised to see storm motion in excess of 50kt today.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
Quoting jeffs713:

That is actually terrible advice, Taz. A car is extremely dangerous to be in during a tornado. Also, during a high-risk event, while running from one storm, you could run into another. And... if a tornado is moving NE at 60 mph... You would be hard-pressed to truly outrun it. A person's natural reaction when running "from" a storm is to go directly away from it. With tornados, running directly away means it is just going to follow you. With how many major thoroughfares are set up in the midwest (north-south and east-west), running away from a storm gets even more complicated.

Best bet if you see a major tornado coming... get in your basement, and hold on.

I think he means that if you know ones coming and it's an EF 5 run as fast as you can out of the way
Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They never got a Day 2 High Risk like we have witnessed this morning. This is only the second time in history. The last time it happened, we had a 60% tornado probability issued. It's not just the coverage of storms/tornadoes for tomorrow, it's their strength. Hodos and wind profiles for tomorrow evening/night are insane across northern Oklahoma and central Kansas.


Just think of how much people would listen to our warnings next event if this event we told them to stay in their basements all day...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They never got a Day 2 High Risk like we have witnessed this morning. This is only the second time in history. The last time it happened, we had a 60% tornado probability issued. It's not just the coverage of storms/tornadoes for tomorrow, it's their strength. Hodos and wind profiles for tomorrow evening/night are insane across northern Oklahoma and central Kansas.


How soon you see the moderate or high risks does not necessarily correspond to how bad the event will be nor the density of severe weather. It is more related to perceived confidence in the event.

Some of our biggest events in recent history did not have enhanced risks or wording until the day of the event. Some of our biggest bust events have had enhanced wording out far before the event. I wouldn't put meaning into how soon an area is highlighted as an indicator of severity. Many of ingredients for severe weather and even strong tornadoes are not known or observable until just before they occur.
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Potential invest has gotten so far north now.

It'll really have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to turn back south and develop like the models said.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
One storm is all it takes for a high-end event. I'm still kind of in denial here. How's this for a Severe wx reminder...

"Remember Joplin!"

Some more perspective from the 1 am CDT Day 2 outlook..

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
QUESTION.
IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.


Maybe this will show risk areas a little closer up.

Keep safe up there. It is one thing to be reviewing information about storms, but another thing entirely to be reviewing information about storms you can see out your window.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The idea of people staying in their basements all day is crazy. What I would do however is get everything I essentially need and put it in the basement, and stay above ground until there is a tornado warning issued.


I agree. Having people in basements all day might cause panic, and generally isn't necessary. Just be prepared, and listen for NWS products/warnings. Don't say you weren't warned.
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Now we have a hatched area for today...

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Quoting jeffs713:

I agree. A high risk is dangerous, but asking people to hunker down all day is absurd. People in the high risk area are *very* used to severe storms, so many know what to look out for, and when to hunker down.

To give an analogy... asking people to stay in their basements all day tomorrow is similar to asking everyone to get off the road between 11pm and 3am every friday and saturday night because of the higher risk for drunk drivers.
I think the essence of the thought is to not stray too far away from your 'basement'. I would imagine that the storms will not be moving linear faster than 40 mph but the potential of rapid vertical development and intensification could catch people off guard. If I lived in that area I would not be planning on taking any road trips..
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Unfortunately, this is true.

They've been finding that ordinary basements do not protect people very well against the top half of EF4 and above.

Saw some of that last year, and it was sad, because people did what they were "supposed to" and got killed or maimed (amputees) anyway.



A lot of the basements I've seen on videos after these storms are basically just open pits that the floor joists go across, and maybe they have a post or two down there supporting the house.


What they really need is a concrete or foam panel, something that cannot "rack" and cannot break into thousands of wooden splinters.

At least if a foam panel breaks (very hard to do) it will provide an angled piece of shielding over somebody's head.

If the floor joists in these houses break, you get tons of debris with sharp wooden splinters going everywhere.

Remember - houses in OK and KS aren't built like houses in the deep south. OK and KS is tornado country. The houses, and ESPECIALLY the basements, are built to a higher standard, and much more storm resistant. Worrying about splinters and such is pointless. In a major tornado, hiding in a basement isn't designed to save you from any possible injury. It is designed to SAVE YOUR LIFE. You *will* have cuts and bruises. You will also be able to see the next sunrise.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The idea of people staying in their basements all day is crazy. What I would do however is get everything I essentially need and put it in the basement, and stay above ground until there is a tornado warning issued.


Just think of how much people would listen to our warnings next event if this event we told them to stay in their basements all day...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
here is a tip if there a EF5 comeing right at your house and you no this for about a few hrs now here the thing dont ride it out in your house or bassmnet get in your car and drive a way if its day light that is

That is actually terrible advice, Taz. A car is extremely dangerous to be in during a tornado. Also, during a high-risk event, while running from one storm, you could run into another. And... if a tornado is moving NE at 60 mph... You would be hard-pressed to truly outrun it. A person's natural reaction when running "from" a storm is to go directly away from it. With tornados, running directly away means it is just going to follow you. With how many major thoroughfares are set up in the midwest (north-south and east-west), running away from a storm gets even more complicated.

Best bet if you see a major tornado coming... get in your basement, and hold on.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
One storm is all it takes for a high-end event. I'm still kind of in denial here. How's this for a Severe wx reminder...

"Remember Joplin!"

Some more perspective from the 1 am CDT Day 2 outlook..

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
QUESTION.
IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.


Maybe this will show risk areas a little closer up.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
here is a tip if there a EF5 comeing right at your house and you no this for about a few hrs now here the thing dont ride it out in your house or bassmnet get in your car and drive a way if its day light that is


Unfortunately, this is true.

They've been finding that ordinary basements do not protect people very well against the top half of EF4 and above.

Saw some of that last year, and it was sad, because people did what they were "supposed to" and got killed or maimed (amputees) anyway.



A lot of the basements I've seen on videos after these storms are basically just open pits that the floor joists go across, and maybe they have a post or two down there supporting the house.


What they really need is a concrete or foam panel, something that cannot "rack" and cannot break into thousands of wooden splinters.

At least if a foam panel breaks (very hard to do) it will provide an angled piece of shielding over somebody's head.

If the floor joists in these houses break, you get tons of debris with sharp wooden splinters going everywhere.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wichita and Oklahoma City...two of the biggest targets for tomorrow's outbreak.



I didn't want to believe that 110 knot 500mb jet in the frame you posted yesterday from the NAM. Whatever storms do develop will be in an environment to kick quickly into gear and likely move fast. Also want say I really appreciate your efforts and those of other youngsters here to cover severe wx on this blog.
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532. skook
Quoting Tazmanian:
here is a tip if there a EF5 comeing right at your house and you no this for about a few hrs now here the thing dont ride it out in your house or bassmnet get in your car and drive a way if its day light that is



So you can get stuck in another tornado? or while you are driving get smashed by hail?.....
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Quoting ncstorm:


I will ask you again after this weekend


You know, people can use some common sense.


Once the outbreak starts everyone should know "hey a tornado could form at any time!"

Watch the local mets and watch the radar on here or NWS site as much as possible so they can see if a really bad cell is headed their way.

The local mets have been very, very good in the past.

Unfortunately, there aren't enough people paying attention to them.

Even in last year's outbreak with all the warnings, we saw people driving cars straight INTO the tornado, and it wasn't the chasers. And then later people are like, "I didn't even know anything was happening!"


Well, I don't know what more the government and news and weather people can do to fix that.


You can have all the models and expert forecasters and media, etc, but if the people aren't going to use it, or at least communicate with one another, it simply won't help them.
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here is a tip if there a EF5 comeing right at your house and you no this for about a few hrs now here the thing dont ride it out in your house or bassmnet get in your car and drive a way if its day light that is
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Wow.

Did they get the fire put out or something?

First day in like a week that the fire isn't the dominant feature on satellite and radar in Florida...
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Very rapid warm up in the Northwestern Caribbean over the last 4 days.  
April 9th:



April 10th:



April 11th:



April 12th:


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The idea of people staying in their basements all day is crazy. What I would do however is get everything I essentially need and put it in the basement, and stay above ground until there is a tornado warning issued.

I agree. A high risk is dangerous, but asking people to hunker down all day is absurd. People in the high risk area are *very* used to severe storms, so many know what to look out for, and when to hunker down.

To give an analogy... asking people to stay in their basements all day tomorrow is similar to asking everyone to get off the road between 11pm and 3am every friday and saturday night because of the higher risk for drunk drivers.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
Quoting washingtonian115:
Tomorrow will be the Titanic's 100th anniversary.Today will be the last day that it sailed above the water....


Tomorrow is it's last day above water. It hit the berg at night and sank on the 15th.
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Only other day 2 high risk:
April 6-8, 2006 tornado outbreak
And on that day, the high risk didnt come till the 1730 outlook.
So this is the earliest issued High risk day...Ever
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Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
We may actually get some rain here on the eastside of FL today. Clouds are already beginning to build looking west which is odd as I thought our rain would be coming from the east today. I guess maybe the NWS offices in FL aren't seeing this disturbance moving SE across FL.

Member Since: Ottobre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting LargoFl:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>05 6-058-059-14 1115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-C LAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-G EARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COF FEY-ANDERSON-
609 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS THAT REMAIN ORGANIZED WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLFBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AFTER 6 PM CDT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BECOMING SUPERCELLS. WITH SUPPORTIVE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF BASEBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND STRONG TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

$$

BLAIR
those poor people..going to have to deal with possible Supercells?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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