Damaging freeze hits the Midwest U.S.
Large portions of the Midwest U.S. shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and freezing temperatures extended as far south as Tennessee and North Carolina. Though the cold temperatures were not unusual for this time of year, they likely caused widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last month's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards, and some even rented helicopters in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. Temperatures of approximately 28°F will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25°F will produce a 90% kill rate. Temperatures of 25° were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota this morning, and I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry. There have been numerous freezes and frosts over the Midwest's fruit growing regions since late March, and orchards are definitely taking a major beating from the weather. It will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known, but I think that so far it is unlikely that the industry has suffered a billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.
Figure 1. Temperatures this morning dipped below freezing across most the northeast quarter of the country, extending into Tennessee and North Carolina. Image taken from our wundermap with the new "go back in time" feature turned on.
History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:
1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.
2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.
3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.
4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.
5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.
6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.
Record warmth in the Western U.S.
As is often the case when one part of the country is experiencing much cooler than average temperatures, the other half is seeing record warmth, due to a large bend in the jet stream that allows warm air to flow northwards. Much of Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado experienced record warm temperatures yesterday. Most notably, Jackson, Wyoming hit 72°F, the earliest 70° reading in their history, and 27° above their normal high of 45°.
Figure 2. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
Tornado outbreak possible Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma
A significant tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. A warm, unstable airmass will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, and strong jet stream winds will create plenty of wind shear. There is the potential for long-track strong tornadoes over Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday, and SPC has has issued their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk," for the region.
First named storm in the Atlantic possible next week
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that an extratropical "cut-off" low will separate from the jet stream early next week several hundred miles east of Bermuda, and linger for several days over subtropical waters with temperatures in the 22 - 24°C range. These ocean temperatures may be warm enough to allow the storm to organize into a named subtropical storm. However, climatology argues against such an occurrence; there has been only one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851. If a subtropical storm does form next week, it would probably not affect any land areas.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Magnitude8.6earthquake: ~272miles(437kilometres)SouthWest of BandaAceh,Indonesia
and ~834miles(1340kilometres)EastSouthEast of Panama,SriLanka
Magnitude8.2earthquake: ~385miles(620kilometres)SouthWest of BandaAceh,Indonesia
and ~842miles(1355kilometres)EastSouthEast of Panama,SriLanka
And 34 earthquakes of magnitudes5.0thru6.0 at 1.281n91.731e, 2.510n90.316e, 2.499n90.365e, 2.646n90.084e, 2.833n92.476e, 1.072n91.943e, 0.773n92.452e, 0.743n92.865e, 0.989n91.942e, 2.929n89.534e, 1.385n92.639e, 3.136n92.775e, 2.528n92.602e, 2.296n90.342e, 2.199n93.623e, 1.493n90.889e, 1.147n92.158e, 2.569n92.296e, 2.287n92.385e, 1.504n90.894e, 1.336n91.841e, 2.969n90.062e, 2.987n92.249e, 3.426n92.860e, 2.496n92.712e, 1.202n92.090e, 1.787n90.927e, 0.514n92.443e, 2.897n89.597e, 1.798n89.670e, 1.223n91.774e, 1.955n93.926e, 3.394n89.817e, 2.973n92.742e
"Temperatures of approximately 28%uFFFDF will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25%uFFFDF will produce a 90% kill rate.
Temperatures of 25%uFFFD were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota this morning, and I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry."
I really hope the people in the plains have adequate shelter for the upcoming severe weather. They are going to need it.
i expect a moderate today when the storms initiate.
the nam's 120kt jet streak is awesome
So a high of 72 in April is pretty abnormal....
Hopefully the early budding trees will survive last night's frost. It could have been worse, and would be if temps were not set to rise over the next two days....
Just saw that, maybe the Indonesian earthquake put tension on the eastern side of the plate.
7:15:49amGMT 12Apr2012 magnitude6.9quake at 28.790n113.142w & 10.3kilometres(6.4miles)depth
The 6.9quake struck ~6miles(9kilometres)SouthWest of the 6.2quake.
The 6.2quake struck in the Sea of Cortez ~69miles(111kilometres)East of BahiaKino,Mexico
The 6.9quake struck in the Sea of Cortez* ~73miles(118kilometres)East of BahiaKino.
The intervening island is IslaTiburon, an uninhabited nature reserve
* aka the Gulf of California
Yea and the Mexico city one was a 6.5
one east of Boston is strange, weird stuff going on.
Time to look for new app
Btw, thanks for the blog dr. Masters, I was quite surprised you mentioned the possible tropical storm.
Where on the Pacific Rim hasn't there been a large quake recently....
Looks like South America and the Canadian Pacific Northwest...
Looks like Forbes is taking that into account, they said the moisture levels weren't quite what they thought though
Magnitude 4.7
Date-Time
Thursday, April 12, 2012 at 14:31:37 UTC
Thursday, April 12, 2012 at 08:31:37 PM at epicenter
Location 4.187°N, 92.551°E
Depth 29.7 km (18.5 miles)
Region OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
Distances
341 km (212 miles) WSW (245°) from Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
433 km (269 miles) SSW (192°) from Misha, Nicobar Islands, India
1022 km (635 miles) W (277°) from KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 22.6 km (14.0 miles); depth +/- 8.1 km (5.0 miles)
Parameters NST= 41, Nph= 41, Dmin=500.9 km, Rmss=1.29 sec, Gp=112°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=4
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID usc00091kw
Makes you wonder what the heck is going on with the Pacific Rim. I hope this isn't a prelude to a major quake/tsunami.
77 hot breaks
4 cold breaks.
The cold breaks were two ties, one 1 degree break and one 2 degree break.
There were at least 3 hot breaks of 6 degrees or more.
There were many hot breaks of 3 degrees or more.
Considering most of the western states also have fewer stations (or so it seems) I'd say the heat wave in the west more than made up for the cold snap in the east and mid-west.
Daily ratio:
hot to cold : 19.25 to 1.
Weekly ratio:
Hot to Cold : 1.15 to 1.
So week was very close to even.
It's the effect of the big one, now If I feel a frieking earthquake in Louisiana imma freak out
Yep, but it wasn't near Mexico*City... and the magnitude for that quake was downshifted by the USGS at least thrice over several hours instead of the normal once (if at all) within a few minutes.
[Corrected from blog2069comment1116]
Magnitude6.5earthquake at 18.390n102.652w at a depth of 65.6kilometres(40.7miles)
~39miles(63kilometres)NW of LazaroCardenas(LZC)
and ~245miles(395kilometres)WSW of MexicoCity(MEX)
1014 ncstorm: Didn't Mexico City just have an earthquake a couple of weeks ago?
The 20March earthquake was a magnitude7.4 at 16.662n98.188w
about midway between Acapulco(ACA) and Oaxaca(OAX)
and ~199miles(321kilometres)SSE of MexicoCity
* It appears that the soil of MexicoCity quivers like a bowl of jelly for any moderately strong earthquake within 300miles(483kilometres), setting off reports of swaying buildings from there.
Watching those Oklahoma Skies.
:)
South America let loose within the last few years, so they are OK. The points of concern right now from my eyes lie from about the US-Mexico border up through Alaska (including the Aleutians). I'm also a bit concerned with the far western portion of the Pacific plate, near the Phillipines, as that section is bracketed by two major quakes in the last 18 months.
I'm aware haha we dont feel squat I remember a year ago there was a 3 northwest of me but haha I'm not too worried
That streak off the coast that goes north is "Alberto"
THE 12/00Z RUN OF THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS REVERSED COURSE FROM ITS
PREVIOUS DRY WEEKEND FCST AND NOW INDICATES 20-35PCT POPS ACRS THE
CWA ON FRI...LINGERING 15-20PCT OVER THE SE CWA INTO FRI NIGHT. THE
MODEL APPARENTLY IS FOCUSING ON A MOISTURE BAND TRAILING THE FRONTAL
TROF CURRENTLY TRANSITING THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLC COAST ON FRI...THE
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BEHIND AN INVERTED TROF THAT DVLPS OVER THE
FL PENINSULA THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. AS THE ERLY FLOW BECOMES
PREVALENT...POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS AND SHRAS RESULT.
*the Indian scientist who's name I can't remember ATM...*
2012
That's new
Euro: 00Z
GFS has it attatched to the trough, and gets it way far north, then its cut off from the trough, and is pushed SSW.
GFS: 06Z
The Nogaps Detatches it from the front, but only brings it to 1007 MB.
Nogaps: 00Z
Last, but not least.
The canadian matches the nogaps with the way the trough comes through. Though its much stronger with it, and brings it far north, It becomes a strong Sub-tropical storm near 38N, and then shortly after is picked up by a second trough.
CMC: 00Z
Another rain event on tap for you guys in Houston I see. I saw a story about the drought over TX and they said that last year some areas were 30" to 45" below normal last year. Amazing so keep that rain coming!
"Did you know that a moderate risk issuance on day 3 occurs on average only once per year? The last time a day 3 moderate issued was for the 27 Apr 2011 outbreak."
Yes you are indeed correct about those deficits. We will take all the rain we can get! It kind of sucks that these precip graphs are not very accurate. Hopefully this one pans out though!
That may have been a bad idea to post
I agree. I remember my professor saying that once you start seeing it become active then a major quake will likely happen somewhere along that rim. I'm thinking somewhere along the North or South America pacific coast.
What's a mega thrust
Tia
Sorry for my ignorance
Y?
Never know, Somewhere on the west coast of CONUS could have a mega quake in minutes, hrs from now.
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