Damaging freeze hits the Midwest U.S.
Large portions of the Midwest U.S. shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and freezing temperatures extended as far south as Tennessee and North Carolina. Though the cold temperatures were not unusual for this time of year, they likely caused widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last month's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards, and some even rented helicopters in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. Temperatures of approximately 28°F will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25°F will produce a 90% kill rate. Temperatures of 25° were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota this morning, and I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry. There have been numerous freezes and frosts over the Midwest's fruit growing regions since late March, and orchards are definitely taking a major beating from the weather. It will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known, but I think that so far it is unlikely that the industry has suffered a billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.
Figure 1. Temperatures this morning dipped below freezing across most the northeast quarter of the country, extending into Tennessee and North Carolina. Image taken from our wundermap with the new "go back in time" feature turned on.
History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:
1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.
2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.
3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.
4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.
5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.
6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.
Record warmth in the Western U.S.
As is often the case when one part of the country is experiencing much cooler than average temperatures, the other half is seeing record warmth, due to a large bend in the jet stream that allows warm air to flow northwards. Much of Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado experienced record warm temperatures yesterday. Most notably, Jackson, Wyoming hit 72°F, the earliest 70° reading in their history, and 27° above their normal high of 45°.
Figure 2. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
Tornado outbreak possible Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma
A significant tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. A warm, unstable airmass will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, and strong jet stream winds will create plenty of wind shear. There is the potential for long-track strong tornadoes over Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday, and SPC has has issued their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk," for the region.
First named storm in the Atlantic possible next week
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that an extratropical "cut-off" low will separate from the jet stream early next week several hundred miles east of Bermuda, and linger for several days over subtropical waters with temperatures in the 22 - 24°C range. These ocean temperatures may be warm enough to allow the storm to organize into a named subtropical storm. However, climatology argues against such an occurrence; there has been only one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851. If a subtropical storm does form next week, it would probably not affect any land areas.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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and when they live through it, or the tornado weakens and lifts, we have another hype problem.
This is a good idea, but they have to be very careful when and how they use the wording.
You don't want them to end up sounding like TWC where every hook echo adn debris ball is "WOWWWWW, ALL OF YOU ARE GOING TO DIE!!!!"
No hype.
Also a good time to preemptively discuss what tends to happen on big days like tomorrow might be. We should try our very best to keep our posts short and sweet, but also not post too many of the same repetitive things so that we can't keep up with one another.
-We should refrain from posting new warnings copied verbatim. People can get that information easily if they want.
-We should refrain from off-topic stuff like we usually try and do during tropical weather. Maybe just treat it like the rules during a land-falling storm. We can argue at each other once it winds down ;)
The 2nd looks stronger.
21 utc and 1 utc, so not for another 8-12 hours,
Should start around 6/7 central tonight
But anyway, Scott is right. keep it short, keep it simple, and stay on topic.
We can argue during hurricane season, like usual.
Oh boy, a Saturday.
EEEVVERYONE will be here.
I think we should post warnings on very strong and dangerous storms.
On days like tomorrow, it really helps when someone points out a storm you were missing because you were looking at another supercell far away.
For example, i didnt even notice the west liberty cell on march 2 because i was looking at the line of storms instead of ahead of it.
For someone on the blog, they could see they are in the path of the storm, or someone they know is,
but you are right in that we do not need to post every little warning.
Seriously, I'd love to see one day on WU without arguing.
Tomorrow looks to be some kinda severe weather event that I wouldn't want to be in. Keep safe all.
Technically I'm an environmental scientist/hydrologist/cartographer. Officially educated and work in similar things, but not officially a met. Just a minor in meteorology, although have been through the NWS radar/warning training courses and have given seminars on radar/severe weather.
As a public employee, it would not be hard to verify my existence. Heck, I think they are even required by law to tell you how much I make a year. Point is, you can verify that I am who I say I am pretty easily.
Talking about a storm that we are missing, or pointing it out... well that's different than posting an entire warning text verbatim. Most probably skip over the warning text. If needbe, maybe the particularly important or interesting part of the warning text could be posted.
But if we try and refrain from doing so, we wont end up with 3 or 4 of the same warning on the blog that we are not going to read anyway that just blocks us from reading the posts we are trying to get to.
Contrary and argumentative? Why, because I'm not with the majority of the blog when it comes to AGW or go along with the "gloom and doom" mantra whenever there is "weather". I just call them as I see them.
listen I hear you guys and again I have nothing against ScottLincoln but I could up make up a handle and say I am Greg Forbes. If he is the real thing, then great for him but I will stick to my local NWS and local weather meterologists for life threatening issues concerning weather. I am not starting an argument so lets keep today and tomorrow drama free:)
I agree, which is why I only post the wording of hail/wind size or what is said about a tornado. The average person isn't (or shouldn't be) looking at this blog for their severe weather info.
If you really think this W. Scott Lincoln fellow at the NWS is famous-enough for random people on the internet to try and copy with fake blog usernames (usernames that were created over 6 years ago, before said NWS employee was even done with college, let alone a famous NWS employee), you could always email him at his work address and see if he responds to you with:
A) what!? someone is copying my identity on some unpopular weather website called Weather Underground? or
B) Yes, I've had the handle "ScottLincoln" since my early years of weather-interest when I first had a home weather station and before I even finished my B.S., let alone became an NWS employee.
Scott,
Do you work at the Jackson, MS WFO? I noticed your picture was taken there, so I was just curious. BTW, I have no reason to believe you aren't who you say you are. Your posts are too intelligent and accurate to be an imposter. Keep up the good work!
Hard to believe this cloud formation
just gave us [Nassau] about 25 minutes of hard rain...
Link
Long time lurker...first post. Appreciate all the info I've gather on this site. Thanks.
Very true, a large majority of the severe weather I've had living here in Central Florida didn't have any severe risk wording, including 2 tornadoes I've seen. During the wet season any given day can spark severe weather. This is because most of the severe weather and thunderstorms/rainfall is triggered by meso-scale/surface events, which models really struggle forecasting and anticipating properly.
@JonDopplerFAST8
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Reports saying SPC is considering an upgrade past high risk for tomorrow... Could be first time that it has happened.. #okwx #kswx
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