March 2012: warmest in U.S. history
Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.
March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.
Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.
Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."
Jeff Masters
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I've tagged 90 back in Late February in Orlando while the offical reporting site OIA hit 90 back on 3/2/2012. Infact it's 87 right now with 46% humidity.
Category 3 hurricane (SSHS)
Duration August 16 %u2013 August 27
Intensity 120 mph (195 km/h) (1-min), 960 mbar (hPa)
The fourth known tropical cyclone of the season, also known as the San Agapito Hurricane and the Great Middle Florida Hurricane of August 1851, the storm was first observed on August 16 about 775 miles (1250 km) east of Barbados. It tracked west-northwestward, attaining hurricane status on August 17 as it approached the Lesser Antilles. Shortly thereafter, the hurricane passed between Antigua and Saint Kitts and later south of Saint Croix. On August 18 it brushed the southern coast of Puerto Rico, though it affected the entire island due to a large size of the storm. The next day it made landfall on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. The cyclone rapidly weakened to tropical storm status over Hispaniola, though it regained hurricane status as it paralleled the southern coast of Cuba just offshore. Late on August 20, the cyclone crossed western Cuba, briefly weakening to tropical storm status before again regaining hurricane status in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It quickly strengthened and reached peak winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) early on August 23 about 215 miles (345 km) south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida. Turning northeastward, the hurricane moved ashore near Panama City, Florida at peak intensity, with an estimated barometric pressure of 960 mbar. It accelerated across the Southeastern United States, weakening to a tropical storm before exiting North Carolina into the Atlantic Ocean on August 25. On August 27, it was last observed over Newfoundland as a weak tropical storm.
The hurricane passed near Saint Lucia on August 17, where high tides and rough seas were reported. Flooding was reported in northern Puerto Rico during its passage. Impact is unknown in Hispaniola and Cuba. The hurricane produced an estimated storm tide of 12 feet (3.7 m) at Saint Marks; the combination of waves and the storm tide flooded coastal areas, destroying 50% of the cotton crops in some areas.[4] Rough seas destroyed a brig, killing 17 people, and another person drowned due to a shipwreck. Many ships were expected to have been lost in the storm, resulting in fear of potentially hundreds of deaths. The storm caused heavy damage along the coastline, and in Apalachicola the winds destroyed the roofs of all but two or three buildings. Dog Island Light was destroyed, resulting in five deaths. Further inland, many houses were blown over in Tallahassee, totaling $60,000 in damage (1851 USD, $1.5 million 2008 USD). Heavy damage was reported in Alabama, including destroyed crops and damaged houses; damage in the state was less than in Florida.Hurricane force winds extended into southwestern Georgia, while tropical storm force winds were reported along the coastline. In Savannah, the winds damaged many houses and downed many trees. In North Carolina and Virginia, winds from the storm destroyed crop fields and small buildings; in the region, it was described as the worst storm in 30 years.Storm damage was reported as far north as Cambridge, Massachusetts. It must have been large, it did a lot of damage to S.W. Florida while recurving.
Intensity 120 mph (195 km/h) (1-min), 960 mbar (hPa)
It's the most comfortable 83 I've ever been inI
Definitely going to get toasty with the high sitting offshore the big bend area.
I'm just glad we still have a cold snap going on here. Prolly the last set of low 80s we'll see for a while.
Wacky snow fall with evaporation cranked up early and persistently, El Nino blocking Tropical Storm formation relief, etc.
Someone please tell me I am wrong.
The good news is cold Alaska means more ice area in the Arctic.
Will that be enough to stop continued blocking patterns in the jet?
The nicest thing I can say is the smoke from wildfires IS giving us some shade.
I saw a couple that came up from the Car, made it all the way to the Brownsville area of the GoM coast, then skirt the coast all the way back east to the Mobile area before heading NE and exiting anywhere from St. Aug. to Charleston....
Seemed to be something about the atmospheric circulation between 1830 and 1850 that made this an observable pattern.
I haven't been following this blog long enough to identify the trolls. I certainly do not encourage this type of behavior on the internet (in real life it's fun to a point, however!) especially when talking about important subjects.
These guys are on my "mental list" and will not argue with them anymore. ;)
Skeptic33, Chucktown, swampdooogggg
77 and mostly cloudy in Nassau today!
It's a definite possibility, as it has been quite dry in my area for the past few months. Hopefully April showers will bring May flowers which bring Pilgrims :P
CONGRATS!!!! I hope all will be well
Yeah I don't know where you are but it's really nice outside with the low humidity. eventhough it's 87 it feels nice!
Mandeville Louisiana
Yeah, but I think the difference is that the pattern has been more stuck than the past few years where we had a strong trough at least once a week. The ridge in the Western Atlantic has been more difficult for the troughs to overcome and it has played a big part in our record warmth this spring. If it stays so dominant into hurricane season, it could be trouble.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK INTO ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101856Z - 102000Z
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
1830Z VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE
VICINITY OF TWO SEPARATE SURFACE FEATURES...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING INTO A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
NRN AL/MS WWD INTO CNTRL OK...AND AN AREA OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE
NOTED FROM E CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL MS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND A
MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 60S HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE WARM LAYER
LIKELY STILL EXISTS AROUND 750 MB...EVIDENCED BY THE PREDOMINANTLY
STABLE APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUD FIELDS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NRN LA WHERE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED/. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STABLE LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH
TIME. MORE PROBLEMATIC IS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS UPPER FORCING...ALTHOUGH
THE LA CONVECTION IS LIKELY RESPONDING TO A DECAYING UPPER
WAVE...NOTED ON WV IMAGERY FROM CNTRL TX INTO SRN MS/LA. FARTHER N
WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER SERN OK INTO SRN AR HAS
NO NOTABLE UPPER FEATURE TO INSTIGATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...AND
MAY POSSIBLY BE SUPPRESSED IN SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. AS SUCH...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED.
..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2012
Good afternoon everyone... Does anyone know if we're still expecting major sever weather for the end of this week or did the threat mostly disappear?
Formed September 21, 1966
Dissipated October 11, 1966
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
150 mph (240 km/h)
Lowest pressure 929 mbar (hPa); 27.43 inHg
Fatalities Over 1,000 total
Damage $432.5 million (1966 USD)
Areas affected Lesser Antilles, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Keys, Yucatán, Mexico
Link
Watch in 1080P HD for the best viewing experience.
Created by Tim Asdoorian for Stanford University's HumBio 183: Astrobiology and Space Exploration taught by NASA Ames's Lynn Rothschild.
FREE LECTURES and more info can be found at: http://www.stanford.edu/group/astrobiology/cgi-bin /
Still expecting it
That's a really good point.
Hey St Aug, thats a lot more to burn thats for sure. What is even more appalling is the articles surprise long term forecast at the very end:
"Heavy rainfall isn't expected until June at the earliest"
I wonder what model they are looking at? lol, thats a pretty bold statement.
I noticed and had to LOL. I can only assume they were implying the rainy season doesn't kick in until June. But - you know what happens when one assumes.
Omg we just finished this we were doing so good
What is wrong with having a civil discussion about the climate?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
219 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012
...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA FOR LONG DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT...
...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEON COUNTY FLORIDA FOR LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COINCIDENT WITH AN ERC OF 35 OR
GREATER...
...A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH DISPERSION OF 75 OR
GREATER AND ERC VALUES OF 20 OR GREATER...
.DISCUSSION...DISPERSION VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 75
OVER A LARGE AREA OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT. ERC
VALUES ARE ALSO FAIRLY HIGH...SO THE LARGE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE FLORIDA ZONES.
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
AFTERNOON.
ALZ065>069-102300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-120410T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-
119 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
* WIND...NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
* HUMIDITY...22 TO 24 PERCENT MINIMUM.
* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.
&&
$$
DVD
In part yes, yes it was, but in a different way.
Bad farming practices destroyed the soil, which enhanced natural drought cycles, causing moisture and nutrients to go down.
then when a natural drought hit, all the vegetation died fast, and you lose even more ability to hold soil moisture.
Lower soil moisture eventually equals lower humidity and higher temperatures extremes.
This of course is why there was so much wind-driven erosion, hence the term "Dust Bowl".
The gist of this is pretty well accepted science and history.
No I understand the dust storms were caused by over farming and over grazing, but the actual heat part was not.
You missed it we had one an hour and a half ago
Tropical Pacific remains ENSO-neutral
Issued on Tuesday 10 April | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
Following the demise of the 2011%u201312 La Nina, the state of ENSO across the tropical Pacific remains neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina). Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that, although the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, a neutral ENSO state will persist into the southern hemisphere winter. Historically, about 70% of the time neutral or El Nino conditions have developed in the year following a 2-year La Nina event.
The main signs of ENSO, including trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line and ocean temperatures, have all returned to near-normal levels. The SOI is at its lowest level since early 2010, while the equatorial Pacific has warmed by about 0.2 to 0.4 C during the past fortnight.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Neutral IOD conditions are forecast for the southern hemisphere winter.
Next update expected by 24 April 2012 | print version
Obviously the main question will be how long will neutral conditions last going into the peak of the Atlantic Season in mid-September......It could make a difference (numbers wise) of an additional 1-5 storms depending on the timing if El Nino conditions do not emerge at some point during this season as suggested by Gray and Company.
I doubt the teachers were deliberately lying. I remember a Roger Miller song that surprisingly touched on this subject in which Columbus was asked "How'd you know the world was round?*", implying that a round world was a revelation. I don't think ol' Roger was trying to put one over on us. Misconceptions can occur without any intent to deceive.
*For the record --and on the record--, in the song Columbus answered, "I used my brain...and I get up early in the morning."
(I'll try to work some Marty Robbins into my next post)
We all know it can get very non-civil here more rapidly than Humberto becoming a hurricane off of Texas.
The Mesopotamians believed the earth was a flat disc floating in the oceans. The Eygyptians believed the earth was a flat square, with the sky supported on mountains at the corners. By 1400, most scientists had accepted the earth was a sphere, thanks to Greek mathemeticians. Your second sentence is just incorrect, and not thought out or researched at all.
I don't mean this as an argument, just pointing it out. If you really want to learn something today, do what I did... look it up!
Had a much better day today except for the fact I forgot my phone at home and the drink machine stole my money.
u always have bad luck :)
on a weather note, it was quite windy ahead of the line of showers in N AL/GA.
I wonder how much rain is reaching the ground though, but i am hoping for a few sprinkles.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LA SALLE PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT
* AT 234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTH OF JENA...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBIA...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* THIS STORM WILL PASS NEAR...OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF JENA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. BOATERS
ON CATAHOULA LAKE SHOULD CLEAR THE LAKE. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
&&
LAT...LON 3148 9200 3147 9201 3174 9226 3190 9206
3179 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 323DEG 28KT 3173 9208
$$
VII
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