March 2012: warmest in U.S. history
Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.
March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.
Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.
Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."
Jeff Masters
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It will start to take shape late on the 15th, and my guess is the front over the western Atlantic. The upper flow over this portion of the world seems largely zonal at the moment, especially below 30N. A more amplified regime is forecast to develop. This flow pattern might act to allow the southern end of this front to slowly push eastward, rather than exit completely into the north Atlantic shipping lanes.
Kori beat me to it :P
Updated: 4/09 6:01 pm | Published: 4/09 12:40 pm
Reported by: Brian Carlson
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Utah Seismic Safety Commission
SALT LAKE CITY (ABC 4 News) - Some of Utah's most prominent politicians are urging people along the Wasatch Front to get ready for a major earthquake. Seismic experts have been warning people for years that Utah is overdue. Monday they’re trying to warn those who need to know it most.
Officals raising awareness just about a week ago for the Wasatch Fault line.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4. html
By clicking on HDW-H checkbox, the upper atmosphere across the Atlantic (upper ridges and upper troughs) are currently low in amplitude, usually a much more amplified upper air pattern exists during a subtropical event.
The W Atlc front is being supported by a low-amplitude upper trough with axis around 80 deg west longitude. This same upper trough seems to also be producing non-frontal surface troughs in the vicinity of the north-central Caribbean (TAFB surf map). Seeing a lot of t-storm flare ups north of the non-frontal surface troughs and ahead of the W Atlc front, I guess supported by surface convergence from these features coupled with the upper divergence of the 80 deg west longitude upper trough.
If I don't see the 80 deg west longitude upper trough get amplified moreso in the next several hours...I don't think a subtropical cyclone will develop by April 15/16 from any of those surface features....so I am not yet excited....
I didn't say it would develop on those dates. Just that it would begin on those dates. The models seem to want to place a more amplified synoptic flow regime over the central Atlantic over the next few days.
Oh okay...so the more amplified synoptic flow begins on the 15th/16th? According to the models, is the upper trough going to cut-off into an upper low south of Bermuda's latitude or north of it? I am thinking SSTs are too cool in general...but especially too cool for subtropical development north of Bermuda's latitude.
Been a very long day.
Mercifully, it looks like most of the hail and tornadoes were in remote, isolated areas and haven't hit any population centers.
Look forwards to better, more complete information tomorrow.
good night everyone.
I felt nothing, but after Virginia, I pay attention to my dogs.
SE US Coast here.
Maybe the dog just heard the ice turning over.
As per the GFS, the upper flow looks to become more amplified near the 72 hour time frame, and the actual low begins to manifest a day later, to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.
144 hr is its strongest at 180 it spins down
M2.9 - Volcano, Hawaii
2012-04-12 05:09:24 UTC
WARNING; A 6.0+ earthquake is "possible" in the Indio, Borrego Springs, Ocotillo area April 11 to April 14. Please make sure you have extra food, gas, water and emergency plans ready.
Back-to-back DI events synced w/ smt lava lake rise/fall; active flows SE of Pu`u `O`o crater on pali and coastal plain; no ocean entry; gas emissions elevated.
(Change to current status occurred on Mar 9, 2011 19:45 HST from Alert Level WARNING and Aviation Color Code RED )
For more information see http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/activity/archiveupdate.p hp?noticeid=7184
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012
MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-121000-
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.W.0009.120412T0600Z-120412T1300Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.120413T0600Z-120413T1300Z/
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...HIGHTOWN...
MONTEREY...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
1045 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE UNPROTECTED VEGETATION.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
&&
$$
Title: UCB Milk Sampling Results
Source: UCBDepartment of Nuclear Engineering
Date: April 9, 2012
4/9/2012 (5:45pm): Three recent milk test results have been posted on the milk sample page with “best by” dates of 3/12, 4/9, and 4/16. Very low levels of Cs-134 and Cs-137 were detected in the samples — the amounts are so small that it would require drinking over tens of thousands of liters of milk to receive the small dose that one receives from a cross-country airplane flight. These isotopes can still be detected in milk because they have long half-lives (2 years and 30 years, respectively) and therefore trace amounts will remain in the grass and hay that the cows feed on.
Best Buy Date of 04/09/2012:
Cs-134 @ 0.068 Bq/L
Cs-137 @ 0.141 Bq/L
Total Cs = 0.209 Bq/L or 5.67 pCi/L (27.1 picocuries = 1 becquerel)
Best Buy Date of 04/16/2012:
Cs-134 @ 0.073 Bq/L
Cs-137 @ 0.079 Bq/L
Total Cs = 0.152 Bq/L or 4.12 pCi/L
The EPA Maximum Contaminant Level for radioactive cesium in milk is 3 picocuries/L:
“EPA lumps these gamma and beta emitters together under one collective MCL [Maximum Contaminant Level], so if you’re seeing cesium-137 in your milk or water, the MCL is 3.0 picocuries per liter; if you’re seeing iodine-131, the MCL is 3.0; if you’re seeing cesium-137 and iodine-131, the MCL is still 3.0.” -Forbes.com
These are the highest cesium-137 levels detected by UCB since last June (Far right column is Cs-137)
DEPT NUCLEAR ENGINEERING BERKELEY CA.
http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/UCBAirSampling/MilkSa mpling
SPC AC 120734
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT THU APR 12 2012
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ERN KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...
...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
D3/SAT...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
MIDLEVEL WIND EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM THROUGH OK/KS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING D2/FRI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING ON SAT...REACHING CO/NM BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AN ATTENDANT 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET WILL EMERGE INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TO KS SAT NIGHT...WITH 60-80 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NEB. A LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
THROUGH SRN NEB TO SRN IA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT. A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EWD SOME BY SAT
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN NEB SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
KS TO FAR WRN OK TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.
...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER FALLS FORECAST FOR SAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF THE DRY LINE ON SAT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND REACHING CENTRAL/ERN
KS BY SAT EVENING. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY
LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.
...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL/SWRN-SRN WI...
STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH D3
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AS A WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NNEWD SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER..A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT AND INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION/TSTMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
WARM FRONT AND ALSO WWD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE WARM
FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.
..PETERS.. 04/12/2012
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012
GAZ006-008-009-121400-
/O.CON.KFFC.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120412T1400Z/
FANNIN-UNION-TOWNS-
315 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.
* TIMING...THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.
* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY THREATEN OR KILL TENDER
SPRING GROWTH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE
WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.
&&
$$
We may have something here, watch for consistency.
The Euro turns this into a pretty sizeable storm, at least for April... It has it peaking at 1000 mb
THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY
LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.
7:15:49amGMT 12Apr2012 magnitude6.9quake at 28.790n113.142w & 10.3kilometres(6.4miles)depth
The 6.9quake struck ~6miles(9kilometres)SouthWest of the 6.2quake.
The 6.2quake struck in the Sea of Cortez ~69miles(111kilometres)East of BahiaKino,Mexico
The 6.9quake struck in the Sea of Cortez ~73miles(118kilometres)East of BahiaKino.
The intervening island is IslaTiburon, an uninhabited nature reserve
If we have a picture like the lead one in this blog entry that is titled, "August 2012 Statewide Ranks", we'll begin to get some traction concerning global warming in the general US media.
Of course, that will be after one of the worst months of general weather misery in US history.
I don't know what they're seeing preventing today from being a Moderate risk. They need to upgrade!
We will likely see an upgrade to Moderate Risk for today at the next Day 1 Outlook, in an hour and a half or so
That granular flow was all hail stones? It looked like a mud flow. The stable sides and sloshing was amazing.
:-\
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT THU APR 12 2012
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ERN KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...
...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
D3/SAT...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
MIDLEVEL WIND EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM THROUGH OK/KS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING D2/FRI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING ON SAT...REACHING CO/NM BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AN ATTENDANT 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET WILL EMERGE INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TO KS SAT NIGHT...WITH 60-80 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NEB. A LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
THROUGH SRN NEB TO SRN IA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT. A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EWD SOME BY SAT
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN NEB SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
KS TO FAR WRN OK TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.
...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER FALLS FORECAST FOR SAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF THE DRY LINE ON SAT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND REACHING CENTRAL/ERN
KS BY SAT EVENING. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY
LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.
...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL/SWRN-SRN WI...
STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH D3
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AS A WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NNEWD SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER..A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT AND INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION/TSTMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
WARM FRONT AND ALSO WWD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE WARM
FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.
..PETERS.. 04/12/2012
WTH is going on. Mexico,Baja,Oregon,Utah,and N Atlantic?
2012?
moderate will be issued at 9/8 central i think
2012-04-12 11:19:59 UTC
Already had seven Magnitude 5.0 earthquakes today, including a 6.9 in Mexico.
Alberto in the making?
I personally don't see it happenning, but it will be interesting to watch
Good morning. Also,on the Mona Channel,a 3.6.
Link
Good morning. Also,on the Mona Channel,a 3.6.
Link
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