March 2012: warmest in U.S. history
Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.
March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.
Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.
Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."
Jeff Masters
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TORNADO WARNING
COC001-005-031-112330-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0001.120411T2306Z-120411T2330Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
506 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
EASTERN DENVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
* UNTIL 530 PM MDT
* AT 505 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR 38TH AND TOWER
ROAD...ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF AURORA...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DENVER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BUCKLEY
AFB...BARR LAKE...WESTERN DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
NORTHEASTERN DENVER...NORTHEASTERN COMMERCE CITY AND NORTHWESTERN
AURORA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
&&
LAT...LON 3996 10481 3996 10465 3967 10474 3968 10493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 199DEG 18KT 3982 10479
anyway, the cmc ecmwf and gfs are on board with alberto
Completely stalled out now.
2kts of movement.
Unbelievable.
your house??
Well...looking over the rest of the model...We definitely need a Moderate risk tomorrow.
By Associated Press,
MEXICO CITY — Earthquake shakes Mexico City, causing tall buildings to sway, people to evacuate.
Take a look at USGS right now for a surprising update!
make a map for it!!
Heck no.
the monster thunderstorm northeast of Amarillo.
It's been going for several hours now.
Never seen anything quite like it really.
they posted flash flood warnings about an hour ago, but I expect new flash flood warnings may be needed in the next half hour.
this one is just ridiculous.
Arteaga, MX
edit: sorry picturedidnt come up.
Passing 10 inches of max storm accumulation...for NE of Amarillo, TX.
It was "just" a pop-up thunderstorm.
No training, n othing like that.
It just stalled out and that's what it's done.
I guess it might have moved 20 or 30 miles the whole time.
Thats insane, watch the nexxt drought monitor, there will be a streak of no drought because of this cell.
Here are the recent West Coast ones.
Well that was a map of the 5.9 and the 7.0 one and a bunch of smaller but it didn't load. Site or me having issues, or both.
I have no idea of course if anybody else noticed this, or maybe it was just a link problem?
anyway i had this form the Amarillo storm:
but i couldnt get logged in.
Nah, I've been having trouble as well.
Yeah, I couldnt get on either
There are many new cells moving in from the west and southwest of Amarillo, headed back into the same areas hit so hard by the hail storms in the past several hours.
they might get a lull for a bit once the big slow mover finally gets out of the way, but it looks like some solid storms are already moving in to replace them ASAP.
I have had two issues so far this afternoon.
north korea
Goodness.
I mean tropical storms, or a well developed, slow moving front, sure.
Just a single cell, stalled out thunderstorm dumping 10 inches on somebody?
That's new to me for sure.
looks like a new stom moving right that way, this is UGLY
Probably...
The USGS has a total of 38 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater listed for today... That must be an all time record
Hope everybody is OK with these quakes and I also hope that the blog doesn't slip into hibernation.
A bit disconcerting all these quakes with 2 on the West of the ring of fire and now 2 on the East side as well?
Stay safe you people!
storms are coming back to meet the current ones!!1
brrrrrr.
and does anyone have confirmation on the denver tornado?
Yeah, for the longest time, it was just 2 or 3 very slow moving, but isolated cells.
The other cells have only closed in during about the past 30 minutes.
I lost track of how long this has actually been going on now, but I think it must have been some time around 2:15p.m. central time when it started.
So that same cell has been warned for 100% hail 80% to 100% severe and 1 inches to 3.5 inches continuously for at least 4.5 hours consecutively.
they dont need more rain but its gonna keep coming
45 Quakes over 5.0 in last 7 days.
Still 3.9in per hour accumulations under the main cell.
So yeah. Sick stuff.
Never heard of it.
Looks like it's going to be a bumpy ride tomorrow. :P
day 2
In addition to the fact that it is also still putting down 1.5 inch hail and still has rotation
Here are my predictions on tomorrow's possible severe weather outbreak.
Categorical: Moderate Risk
Tornadoes: 15%
Hail: 45%
Wind: 30-45%
Anyone agree?
Im surprised it has not collapsed, usually the updrafts should stop and be cut off by now, especially with it being slow moving.
Tornado: 10%
Wind: 30%
Hail: 45%
2012-04-11 23:18:50 UTC
M4.6 - Ndoi Island, Fiji
2012-04-11 23:28:43 UTC
There has been a 5.6 Earthquake off the coast of Oregon and a 7.0 earthquake in Mexico....
Is this the day of earthquakes or something???
Yes, didn't you check the calendar this morning?
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