Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Summer in March, 2012, draws to a close

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:54 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012

+51

The most incredible spring heat wave in U.S. and Canadian recorded history is finally drawing to a close today, after a ten-day stretch of unprecedented record-smashing intensity. Since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many spring temperature records broken, and by such a large margin. Airports in fifteen different states have set all-time records for March warmth, which is truly extraordinary considering that the records were set in the middle of the month, instead of the end of the month. The 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia yesterday was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March, according to Environment Canada and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera (top two records: 31.1°C at Alberini Beaver Creek BC on March 29th 1926, and 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg.) Michigan's all-time record for March warmth was toppled on Wednesday, when the mercury hit 90°F at Lapeer. The previous record, 89° at Lapeer in 1910, was matched at three stations yesterday--Ypsilanti, Dearborn, and Lapeer. The duration, areal size, and intensity of the Summer in March, 2012 heat wave are simply off-scale, and the event ranks as one of North America's most extraordinary weather events in recorded history. Such a historic event is difficult to summarize, and in today's post I will offer just a few of the most notable highlights.

Figure 1. Clear skies over the Eastern U.S. caused by a blocking ridge of high pressure on March 21, 2012, are apparent in this visible satellite image. The comma-shaped cloud pattern over the Central U.S. is associated with a "cut-off" low pressure system. This low is moving over the Eastern U.S. today through Saturday, and will bring an end to "Summer in March" over the U.S. and Canada. Image credit: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Lab, and modified by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Low temperatures beating previous high temperature records for the date
I've never seen a case where the low temperature for the date beat the previous record high. This happened on at least four occasions during "Summer in March, 2012":

The low temperature at Marquette, Michigan hit 52° on March 21, which was 3° warmer than the previous record high for the date.

The low at Mt. Washington, NH on March 21 (44°) beat the previous record high for the date (43°.)

The low temperature for International Falls, Minnesota on March 20 bottomed out at 60°F, tying the previous record high for the date.

The low temperature in Rochester, Minnesota on March 18 was 62°F, which beat the previous record high for the date of 60°.

Breaking all-time April records for warmth in March
Not only did many locations in Canada set records for their all-time warmest March day during "Summer in March, 2012", a number also broke their record for warmest April day:

St. John, New Brunswick hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 21. Previous March record: 17.5°C on March 21, 1994. April record: 22.8°C.

Kejimkujik Park, Nova Scotia hit 27.9°C on March 21. Previous March record: 22.5°C on March 30, 1986. April record: 25°C on April 27, 1990.

Yesterday, I reported that Halifax, Nova Scotia hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 22, 2012. Previous March record: 25.8° set the previous day. April record: 26.3°C, set on April 30, 2004. However, Rob Paola, a meteorologist with Environment Canada's Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center in Winnipeg, Manitoba, wrote to tell me that Halifax did not break its April record: In fact, Halifax recorded a temperature of 29.5°C on April 28, 2009. For some reason, that stat does not show up on EC's normal/extremes climate site for Halifax, which only has data up to 2006 for extremes. More details on my blog at http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/

Breaking daily temperature records by more than 30°F
It is exceptionally rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and many records were smashed by over 20°. Two stations broke records by more than 30°F, which is truly surreal. Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F), yesterday, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33°F.) Yesterday's high temperature was 24°C (44°F) above average. Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula--dubbed "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state--hit 85° on March 21. This broke the previous record for the date (53° in 2007) by 32°, and was an absurd 48°F above average.

Breaking daily temperature records nine consecutive days or more
It is extremely rare for stations with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily high temperature record for seven or more days in a row. The longest such streak of consecutive high temperature records at International Falls, Minnesota, was a 5-day period March 3 - 7, 2000. The city has tied or broken their high temperature for the date ten consecutive days, as of yesterday. This streak will likely end today, as the high is predicted to be 60 - 65, and the record high for the date is 66. Chicago, Illinois has tied or broken their daily high temperature record the past nine days in a row. This ties the nine-day streak of record highs set on August 26 - September 3, 1953. Other cites that have set daily high temperature records the past nine days in a row include Fort Wayne and South Bend, Indiana. Numerous cities have broken high temperature records on seven consecutive days during "Summer in March, 2012", including Gaylord, Pellston, and Traverse City in Michigan.

Figure 2. All-time high temperature records set in March 2012 for the U.S. The grey icons show locations where the March record was broken on multiple days. Image taken from wunderground's new record extremes page, using data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The big picture: the impacts of "Summer in March, 2012"
I've always said living in Michigan would be much more bearable if we could just get rid of March. March weather here is always horrible, with brutal cold, high winds, damaging ice storms, heavy snow, interminable cloudy stretches with no sun, all interspersed with a few teasing warm spells. Well, this year, I got my wish. This March, we started with twelve days of April weather, followed by ten days of June and July weather, with nine days of May weather predicted to round out the month. This has been a huge benefit to the economy--vastly reduced heating costs, no snow removal bills, and far fewer traffic accidents due to icy roads. However, there is major downside to the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave. The growing season is now in full swing, five weeks early. A damaging freeze that will severely impact the fruit industry and other sensitive plants is very likely. Indeed, the forecast calls for lows in the upper 20s in the cherry-growing region of Michigan near Traverse City on Monday night. The exceptional March warmth has also melted all the snow in the northern U.S. and southern Canada, drying out the soils and setting the stage for a much warmer than average summer, and an increased chance of damaging drought conditions. The early loss of snowpack will also likely cause very low flow rates in the major rivers in late summer and early fall, reducing the amount of water needed for irrigation of crops. Low flows may also cause problems for navigation, limiting commercial barge traffic on Midwest rivers.

Links
Andrew Freedman of Climate Central interviewed a number of climate scientists who are experts in studying the link between extreme weather events and climate change for his post, Global Warming May Have Fueled March Heat Wave Odds.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt will be posting a more comprehensive summary of the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave this weekend.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I expect I'll be hard at work this weekend, mowing my lawn for the first time ever in March!

Jeff Masters

2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms (gatyamgal)

Because of our week of record breaking Temps here in Bettendorf, IA, the neighbor's tree bloomed and lost its blossoms 3 weeks early. What will April bring?

Spring Landscape (thebige)

Jefferson Memorial (KEM)

Cherry blossoms in Washington DC.

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1. LargoFl 04:54 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ILC087-127-151-231645- /O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0105.120323T1619Z-120323T1645Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1119 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... NORTH CENTRAL MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... WEST CENTRAL POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1145 AM CDT. * AT 1117 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW COLUMBIA...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIENNA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... SIMPSON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. && LAT...LON 3750 8879 3748 8864 3730 8872 3731 8881 TIME...MOT...LOC 1619Z 188DEG 19KT 3734 8875 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN $$ SMITH Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

2. TropicTraveler 05:02 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
What a dramatic first post. The adventure of March 2012 weather continues! Member Since: Luglio 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 896

3. Neapolitan 05:04 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Thanks, Dr. Masters. Even terms such as "unprecedented" and "historical" don't seem to do this month's Norh American heat wave justice, do they? And I really like the way your final paragraph (The big picture: the impacts of "Summer in March, 2012") encapsulated much of the debate about AGW. That is, while there are certainly benefits to a changing climate, the advantages are likely greatly outnumbered by the disadvantages. Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11174

4. GTcooliebai 05:09 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
The blocking ridge across the Eastern US, if it were to stay that way, what would it mean in terms of the steering pattern for this upcoming hurricane season. I've noticed it hasn't moved that much for a couple months now. And drought conditions in the midwest, would that mean a wetter pattern in the east? Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5204

5. OracleDeAtlantis 05:20 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai: The blocking ridge across the Eastern US, if it were to stay that way, what would it mean in terms of the steering pattern for this upcoming hurricane season. I've noticed it hasn't moved that much for a couple months now. And drought conditions in the midwest, would that mean a wetter pattern in the east? The mosquitoes where I live in the upper southeast coast of the U.S., are saying .... DROUGHT. I haven't been bitten by a mosquito in months, and my wife hasn't either. It's weird. Member Since: Agosto 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 290

6. LRC 05:21 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Had a great laugh over this posting. "Climate Morons At The Helm Posted on March 19, 2012 by Steven Goddard If we ever need confirmation that this is a rigged game, 2012 has proved it beyond a shadow of a doubt. This year has brought epic snowfall, cold and ice to much of Asia, Europe Russia, Greenland and Alaska. Arctic ice extent is brushing up against the thirty year mean. Global temperatures are below the thirty year mean. Yet the press and the climate science community remain silent. A few days of warm weather in Chicago – and the press, Jeff Masters, etc. go nuts. Not an ounce of integrity in the lot." Unfortunately I have too many friends who agree with him. Thank you Dr. Master for showing us that the world is changing and changing a whole lot faster then we know. Member Since: Settembre 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20

7. SteveDa1 05:26 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Thank you much for the update Dr. There are no words to describe this heat wave and it will probably be remembered - and used as comparison in future spring heat waves - for a very long time. Seems like every year some form of extreme weather event occurs nowadays (just in the last couple of years we have seen extreme floods, extreme droughts, extreme heat and extreme snows in the U.S. alone) which is exactly what scientists have been trying to tell us for the past 15 years. Yet, sceptics still occupy a significant percentage of the populace which to me outlines the foolish nature of humans. I'm very interested as to what this year will hold for us - especially this summer. Member Since: Ottobre 17, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

8. LargoFl 05:27 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
TORNADO WARNING ILC055-077-145-231800- /O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0057.120323T1718Z-120323T1800Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1218 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 100 PM CDT. * AT 1217 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR DE SOTO...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MURPHYSBORO. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME! DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... DU QUOIN...CHRISTOPHER...BENTON...ELKVILLE...VALIER.. .WEST CITY... SESSER...DOWELL...NORTH CITY AND BUCKNER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3812 8915 3805 8884 3780 8924 3784 8938 TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 216DEG 33KT 3784 8924 $$ Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

9. LargoFl 05:29 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting LRC: Had a great laugh over this posting. "Climate Morons At The Helm Posted on March 19, 2012 by Steven Goddard If we ever need confirmation that this is a rigged game, 2012 has proved it beyond a shadow of a doubt. This year has brought epic snowfall, cold and ice to much of Asia, Europe Russia, Greenland and Alaska. Arctic ice extent is brushing up against the thirty year mean. Global temperatures are below the thirty year mean. Yet the press and the climate science community remain silent. A few days of warm weather in Chicago – and the press, Jeff Masters, etc. go nuts. Not an ounce of integrity in the lot." Unfortunately I have too many friends who agree with him. Thank you Dr. Master for showing us that the world is changing and changing a whole lot faster then we know. good point, my guess is the USA local press is concerned with Local USA weather and unless there is a real bad earthquake or a very bad storm overseas with loss of life they figure the local news THERE will cover it, its just my guess. Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

10. nigel20 05:39 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Thanks Dr. Masters....good morning all Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

11. nigel20 05:41 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
March 22, 2011 Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

12. JNCali 05:42 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Convective forecast for tomorrow.. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032

13. PlazaRed 05:42 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
From an impartial and at best a remotely affected observer, all I can say is thank you for this blog post and general update. I think it would be appropriate at this stage of the spring anomaly to say that maybe the euphoria of all this unseasonal warm weather will pass in short while if the temps drop much below freezing for more than a few hours, as this extract from the heading says:- "A damaging freeze that will severely impact the fruit industry and other sensitive plants is very likely." With the plants and animals having been possibly "Misled," into spring there might be approaching catastrophic losses, should a below freezing spell of weather now descend. It might be a case of not counting your cherries before they are picked, for want of modifying an old statement? I sincerely hope not. Member Since: Gennaio 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442

14. nigel20 05:43 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
March 22, 2012 Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

15. NEwxguy 05:45 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
I've seen several stories on the deadly winter over there on national news.I also saw several stories on the epic heat wave last summer in the same areas. Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132

16. Tropicsweatherpr 05:48 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
The Soufriere Hills Volcano has become very active today with ash emmisions. The last big eruption was on Febuary 11,2010. Read the bulletin below. The seismic network recorded nine rockfalls, one hundred and five volcano-tectonic (VT) and four hybrid earthquakes. Two swarms of VT earthquakes have occurred, one between 16:04 and 16:51 hrs on the 22 March with 49 events and another between 03:10 and 05:27 hrs on 23 March with 54 events. Earthquakes in the second swarm were markedly larger than those in the first. The average sulphur dioxide measurement this week was 433 tonnes per day with a maximum of 654 and a minimum of 282 tonnes per day. Observations on the morning of 23 March showed several changes on the volcano. Steam venting (Fumarolic) activity on the volcano has increased and a new steam vent (fumarole) has appeared on the northwest face of the lava dome behind Gages Mountain. A pulsing steam vent containing a small amount of ash has formed in the back of the February 2010 collapse scar. Very light ashfall is occurring on the western flank of the volcano. Audible roaring associated with the venting can be heard intermittently from MVO, 5.75 km NW of the volcano. Pyroclastic flows can still occur at any time without warning. Lahars (mudflows) remain a hazard. Tracks across the Belham valley are frequently destroyed or heavily modified by lahars, therefore caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall. FVXX23 KNES 231553 VA ADVISORY DTG: 20120323/1552Z VAAC: WASHINGTON VOLCANO: SOUFRIERE HILLS 1600-05 PSN: N1642 W06210 AREA: W_INDIES SUMMIT ELEV: 3002 FT (915 M) ADVISORY NR: 2012/001 INFO SOURCE: GOES-13. GFS WINDS. VOLCANO WEB CAMERA. MONTSERRAT OBSERVATORY. ERUPTION DETAILS: VENTING OF GASES AND OCNL VERY LIGHT NEAR SUMMIT VA EMISSIONS OBS VA DTG: 23/1515Z OBS VA CLD: FL/030 N1647 W06245 - N1645 W06211 - N1629 W06211 - N1620 W06242 - N1647 W06245 MOV W-SW 10KT FCST VA CLD 6HR: 23/2130Z FL/030 N1649 W06253 - N1646 W06210 - N1631 W06211 - N1610 W06252 - N1649 W06253 FCST VA CLD 12HR: 24/0330Z FL/030 N1649 W06253 - N1646 W06211 - N1630 W06212 - N1608 W06252 - N1649 W06253 FCST VA CLD 18HR: 24/0930Z FL/030 N1650 W06254 - N1646 W06210 - N1631 W06210 - N1609 W06252 - N1650 W06254 RMK: THE VO RPTS INCR SEISMIC ACTIVITY WITH VENTING OF GASES AND OCNL SMALL EMISSIONS OF VA. THE VA FALLS OUT WITHIN 1 NM OF SUMMIT WITH GASES FANNING OUT W-SW AROUND 23NM. IF MORE ASH RPRTD WILL UPDATE. ...SWANSON Link Link Member Since: Aprile 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8267

17. pcola57 05:50 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Thank you Dr. Masters...What a 10 week span of temp. breaking weather.We had quite a bit of lightening here this AM. but were spared any flooding. TY again on your update,great work as usual, V/R, Moe Member Since: Agosto 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3867

18. JNCali 05:51 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
No Winter = No flood, cause and effect at its finest.. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032

19. Fraidycat 05:53 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
I'm taking the family up to the UP this summer to camp at Slyvania Wilderness. It's one of my favorite Michigan haunts. The virgin forest up there is magnificent; 5' diameter white pines, yellow birch and basswood almost as big. Lots of cool clear lakes and loons wailing and paddling all over the place. Michigan and my home of N. Indiana only get about 35" of rain a year. The forest, lakes, streams and abundant water and greenery are only there because the place is frozen for half the year and cold and drizzly for another 3 months. Member Since: Settembre 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 20

20. DocNDswamp 05:58 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
(repost from previous blog) 452. Patrap 10:28 AM CDT on March 23, 2012 Quoting Patrap: Dat sucka rumbled and stumbled,...all night long till dawn. Saw where a Huge Oak tree in Audubon Park lost a large portion of Bark from a Lightening strike. Ditto that Pat, Guess my post yesterday aftn of having been lucky up to that point down here of "having enough breaks between storms, lesser intensity" came back to bite... I added another .42" thru midnight for yesterday's totals, dumped the gauge, then in about 5 hr period, say 12:30-5:30 this morn received another 3.93" with stalled boundary / numerous training cells... Had barely got to sleep from the thundering racket when awakened by discomforting sound of drops inside - dang roof sprang two new leaks! Sheesh... Anyway, Terrebonne and Lafourche totally saturated, bayous / canals all full to banks, lot of street flooding at peak earlier, etc... Only a few reports of water in houses, but we'll see... All told, the event rain tally from my home Cocorah gauge now stands at 8.35"... (Tue: .02", Wed: 2.86", Thu: 1.54", Fri: 3.93")... Glad to see this shift east, don't need anymore for a while, lol... Up to this event, my monthly total was at only .53" while everyone else had been getting it... Very similar, reminded me of last hvy March deluge we had, back on Mar 26-27 2009... But that one was more intense, according to my notes, most all fell within a 3 AM-3 AM / 24 hr period... Hello and welcome back, glorious sunshine!!! ;) Member Since: Settembre 21, 2005 Posts: 92 Comments: 4644

21. ScottLincoln 05:59 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting LRC: Had a great laugh over this posting. "Climate Morons At The Helm Posted on March 19, 2012 by Steven Goddard If we ever need confirmation that this is a rigged game, 2012 has proved it beyond a shadow of a doubt. People still listen to Steve Goddard? I figured his lies and mathturbation (as statistician Grant Foster calls it) had pushed him off into obscurity by now. Member Since: Settembre 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1593

22. njmatt04 06:02 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Onewhoknowssays: This epically warm MArch has ZERO to do with AGW. Perfect combination of MJO Phase 5/ +EPO/+WPO and no snowpack. To constantly cite AGW for all reasons why weather is warmer/colder devalues you as a meteorologist and a "scientist". Member Since: Maggio 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1

23. SteveDa1 06:02 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Just found an interesting graph... Image courtesy of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory. Member Since: Ottobre 17, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

24. ClimateChange 06:02 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
The water temperature off Buffalo reached 40 this morning. That's the first time it's reached 40 in the month of March since records began in 1927. The previous record of 39 prior to this year was set in 1953, 1991, 1998, and 2000. The water temp of 37 in early February 2012 was also a record for that month. Historically, the lake was frozen on this date in nearly every year, so the average water temp based on the entire period of record for the date is 32. The average Buffalo water temp does not reach 40 until early May. The lake has been icing out earlier and earlier in recent years though. Other water temps on Lake Erie include 51 at Toledo, 45 at Erie, Belle Isle, MI, and Lakeside Marblehead, and 41 at Cleveland. The readings at Buffalo and Cleveland are taken 30-40 feet below the surface, so surface waters are likely even a bit warmer there. Not sure about the other sites. Member Since: Settembre 8, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 185

25. GTcooliebai 06:03 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis: The mosquitoes where I live in the upper southeast coast of the U.S., are saying .... DROUGHT. I haven't been bitten by a mosquito in months, and my wife hasn't either. It's weird. Lucky you, I was raking leaves yesterday, and kept getting bitten up. I tried the Off! Insect Repellent and it helped a little. Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5204

26. ScottLincoln 06:04 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting njmatt04: Onewhoknowssays: This epically warm MArch has ZERO to do with AGW. Perfect combination of MJO Phase 5/ +EPO/+WPO and no snowpack. To constantly cite AGW for all reasons why weather is warmer/colder devalues you as a meteorologist and a "scientist". What happens to the tails of a normal distribution when you shift the mean one way or the other? Member Since: Settembre 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1593

27. Jedkins01 06:05 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting JNCali: No Winter = No flood, cause and effect at its finest.. Don't you think the statement: no winter = no flood might be a bit too general? Maybe in far north that's true. But you are showing a map of the whole U.S. Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5336

28. nigel20 06:06 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
March 22, 2012 Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

29. ScottLincoln 06:07 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting Jedkins01: Don't you think the statement: no winter = no flood might be a bit too general? Maybe in far north that's true. But you are showing a map of the whole U.S. Exactly. All that did was change the probability of seeing snowmelt-induced flooding. Beyond that, it says little for spring thunderstorm flooding or summer overnight MCS flooding, which is more typical for many parts of the midwest. Member Since: Settembre 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1593

30. nigel20 06:07 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
March 22, 2005 Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

31. Jedkins01 06:09 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
000 FXUS62 KTBW 230652 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 252 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)... OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL TRACK FROM THE ARKLATEX EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PENINSULA TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE CUTOFF MOVES EAST AND DIGS INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BASIN TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE RATHER EARLY TODAY AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND. THIS WILL BE HELPED BY THE FACT THAT THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN THE DEEPER LAYER FLOW MORE WESTERLY. SO FOR POPS TODAY...WILL CONFINE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WELL INTERIOR. NEAR THE COAST...IT IS EXPECTED THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ON THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST. A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AS LOWS STAY WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN. THEN FOR SATURDAY THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND DEEPENS. HIGHEST POPS WILL STAY IN THE NORTH...WHERE THERE IS MUCH BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN FAVOR QUICK EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NORTHERN INTERIOR. IN THE SOUTH IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NO RAIN GIVEN RIDGING IN PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY FALL TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP IT COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. POPS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH ON SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MOVING TROUGH. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROP TO WELL BELOW AN INCH ON MONDAY RESULTING IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE KICKED OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AS A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL STAY TOO FAR NORTH TO DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR WEATHER...BUT WILL PUSH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. THIS IS USUALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN DURING LATE MARCH...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS. WILL JUST USE SILENT 10 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS IN FUTURE FORECASTS. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AGAIN SOME FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT ONLY BY 3 OR 4 DEGREES EACH DAY. && .AVIATION... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. LAL AND PGD COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT LAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT COASTAL TERMINALS TO BE SPARED FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS AS EARLY SEA BREEZES STEER ACTIVITY INLAND. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE COMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WITH LOW WINDS AND SEAS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 84 68 84 67 / 10 10 30 30 FMY 89 67 86 67 / 10 10 10 10 GIF 88 66 86 65 / 40 20 30 30 SRQ 81 69 80 68 / 10 10 20 30 BKV 87 60 85 62 / 20 10 40 30 SPG 80 72 78 70 / 10 10 30 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...35/JOHNSON LONG TERM/AVIATION...63/JILLSON Apparently highs in the 80's and lows in the 60's will qualify as cold air advection... lol I guess in Florida cold air advection can just mean a north wind behind a trough but not necessarily cooler air. Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5336

32. SteveDa1 06:09 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting njmatt04: Onewhoknowssays: This epically warm MArch has ZERO to do with AGW. Perfect combination of MJO Phase 5/ EPO/ WPO and no snowpack. To constantly cite AGW for all reasons why weather is warmer/colder devalues you as a meteorologist and a "scientist". It's funny how you know it has NOTHING to do with AGW but he doesn't know what he's talking about. Member Since: Ottobre 17, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

33. Jedkins01 06:10 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: Exactly. All that did was change the probability of seeing snowmelt-induced flooding. Beyond that, it says little for spring thunderstorm flooding or summer overnight MCS flooding, which is more typical for many parts of the midwest. Yeah its like saying El Nino = no tropical cyclones, lol. Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5336

34. nigel20 06:11 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
March 23, 2009 Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

35. dabirds 06:13 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Good call on that spin ILwthr, confirmed touchdown near Tamaroa in Washington County, take shelter if north, ne of that area! Member Since: Agosto 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 497

36. nigel20 06:13 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
March 22, 2010 Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

37. Patrap 06:16 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Hello and welcome back, glorious sunshine!!! ;) Was a frog Strangler fer sho Doc. One added Bonus was that the Heavy Rains "rinsed" all the Buckmoth caterpillar's out them Oaks as well. They wicked nasty when they fall on one's neck and hair. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

38. nigel20 06:17 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
March 24, 2008 Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

39. nigel20 06:19 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
March 24, 2007 Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

40. nigel20 06:21 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
It's amazing how SST's vary from year to year Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

41. JNCali 06:24 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
(let's try this) Not so much Winter = Not so much risk of the flood, sorta like a cause and effect thingy.. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032

42. sunlinepr 06:25 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Parts of metropolitan Tokyo area would be designated “radiological area” if located at US Facility or DOE site Posted by Lucas W Hixson on March 22, 2012 in Editorials, http://enformable.com/2012/03/parts-of-metropolit an-tokyo-area-would-be-designated-radiological-are a-if-located-at-us-facility-or-doe-site/ ---"As the popular saying goes, “a nuclear accident anywhere is an accident everywhere”. Detections of the Fukushima plume were made after the ﬁrst explosion at stations sited in Kamtchatka (Russia) and Takasaki (Japan) followed by measurements in USA, Canada, and on some Paciﬁc Islands. This story goes from bad to worse, the government and plant managers along with a compliant media downplay the situation. Not to worry in one breath and then, well, some radioactive material is in the food, the ocean, the air, the groundwater and the damage is just a tad bit more than originally believed, but hey, its manageable. Reminiscent of Vietnam and about the Agent Orange and Dioxin, which has been repeatedly shown to have caused much greater damage than initially reported, ”Don’t worry it’s ONLY weed killer”.----" ---- “The nuclear accident in Japan has resulted in widespread deposition of radioactive contamination throughout the northern part of Japan, including the metropolitan Tokyo area. Surface contamination levels in this entire region would be required to be posted as radiological area if they were at a U.S. licensed facility or DOE site. Any materials leaving Japan have the potential for low levels of radioactive contamination. Thus, the discussion about materials in DOD possession is indicative of similar materials that are entering commerce from Japan. In the DC and IPC meetings earlier this week, it was agreed that the limit of 4 Bq/cm2 for commerce was going to be acceptable and posed no health risk.” Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

43. hydrus 06:25 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Finally moving , but barely.. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315

44. sunlinepr 06:27 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Next one, please... More powerfull Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

45. sunlinepr 06:30 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Notice the Big ammount of moisture to be injected into Conus Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

46. Neapolitan 06:32 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting njmatt04: Onewhoknowssays: This epically warm MArch has ZERO to do with AGW. Perfect combination of MJO Phase 5/ EPO/ WPO and no snowpack. To constantly cite AGW for all reasons why weather is warmer/colder devalues you as a meteorologist and a "scientist". And why is there no snowpack? Your comment seems a bit like an oncologist telling his patient that the bloody sputum he's been hacking up into his sink of late is only because of his cough. ;-) Member Since: novembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11174

47. hydrus 06:33 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Maybe another upper low down the road.. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315

48. DocNDswamp 06:36 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
#37 Patrap, Along with all the pollen that needed a good rinse, lol... Great for all our long-term drought suffering trees, getting the soil water table back up too... esp my pecan trees! Late lunch calls... gonna look-see how close Bayou Terrebonne came to flooding homes... BBL... Member Since: Settembre 21, 2005 Posts: 92 Comments: 4644

49. nigel20 06:36 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
Quoting sunlinepr: Quite a bit of moisture as well Member Since: novembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

50. Chicklit 06:39 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
The 'twin screws' are an interesting feature, sunlinepr. Thanks for capturing that. And thanks, Doc, for another great blog. We not only find out what's going on in the present and near future but also learn about historical records and the longer view. Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

51. Levi32 06:41 PM GMT del 23 Marzo 2012
It is worth pointing out that this kind of stuff also happened long before the period during which AGW has been blamed for extreme weather events. Check out the Weather Bureau Monthly Weather Review for March 1910: Source Look closely at this last one. These are some of the highest temperatures recorded in the Great Lakes region during March 1910. Compare with Dr. Masters' record map: A lot of these look like they beat out this year's event. 89 degrees F in lower Michigan in March? Individual events offer no evidence for consideration in the climate tendencies of the planet. The next step in the argument is always the frequency at which record warmth occurs compared to 100 years ago, which undoubtedly is a bit higher now because the globe was cooler 100 years ago. However, caution must be taken when instantly blaming an event like this on a theory of global, climate change. Let's take it in context. 1910 was as bad, if not worse in some areas, and the fact that the globe was a bit cooler as a whole then makes that event statistically more impressive than March 2012. Let's not pretend this is something we have never seen before. You just have to look for it. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25459

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