Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:17 PM GMT del 22 Marzo 2012 | +37 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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The answer to the big question is no. Quick enough would have been about two decades ago. :P
This storm has had some neat looking clouds, I'll try to post some pics later.
Guest will be Greg Carbin, Warning Coordinating Meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. Greg will Skype into the show Live from the Lead Forecast Desk tonight. Go here to watch.
I'm wondering what you guys mean by quick enough. Quick enough for what? What sort of catastrophes are you predicting? We asked for it but nothing will be too extreme for us not to be able to handle accordingly. Sure, we will face unpredictable extreme weather events all over the globe the next couple of decades but clean, abundant energy is on the horizon.
The way you imply "quickly enough" sounds like this is it, we have gone too far, and there is no turning back. This is not the case, not even slightly so.
As a species we have gone through much much harder times in the past. We are just going through a very fast and changeable period in the history of homo sapiens and I am confident we will adapt with "few" ordeals.
Sometimes I just don't like to agree! It goes against the grain but all this awareness is at least 2 decades too late.
Any measures taken now will help but they will only slow down the inevitable rise in global temps and even then the slowing will be minuscule.
What we have to contend with is not the nature of the "detonator," anymore but the potential of the explosive devise it is connected to? Once the problem moves from 393 PPM CO2, to methane release then its going to be quite another ball game. I am more and more of the opinion that damage limitation may be all we can hope for with this warming thing and maybe, just maybe when the problem becomes undeniable Nations will work together to survive its global effects.
I think the choices for answers needs a "Neither agree nor disagree" option, probably because the way some of the questions were worded didn't see the best.
That being said, I pretty much ended up where I expected. :)
I don't think survival of the species is the issue. In fact, survival seems pretty easy to attain. After all, people survive here:
(The image may be chopped off on the right. Here is the link.)
It might well be the case that we have gone too far, and it might not be the case. No one knows with a lot of confidence one way or the other. Statements either way at this point probably say more about the person than they do about what's coming.
With that in mind, I'll say that I do think it's too late to avoid some extremely difficult challenges in the next couple of decades. But again, that's just my opinion.
No. But I have seen it.
Wow... and I find the city that I live in crowded :O I'm gonna have to rethink that.
I think I also know that this is not the issue but the way people make this so dramatic it sounds like survival of the species is on the table.
When you look at the Black plague, both world wars, great european famines, etc., this pales in comparison. We can adapt very quickly nowadays and unless we didn't do anything for the next 100 years then I just don't see why there has to be so much drama involved.
Um...perhaps you didn't read the article but the "melting" has nothing to do Jupiter's climate. It has to do with the internal mechanics of it's core (Jupiter produces it's own heat).
I guess you're right, it does come down to personal opinion. There isn't really any conclusive evidence telling us what sort of consequences we are up against.
I'm naturally optimistic and analytical therefore my opinion reflects that...
We'll likely see Jose retired from the list. Don is a possibility also but he may fall just short.
Stunning show tonight at aurora skystation.
Hi all, Barb
Its the urge to leave the planet a better place than when you left it. Will the human race become extinct? Probably not, however life will not as comfy as we have grown accustomed to (which has other implications). In addition, it will lead to human suffering. Most would agree that we should live in a way that has the least amount of suffering possible. We are not on the right track for that objective.
The Lapeer 2W, Michigan Co-op site reached a high temperature of 90 yesterday. That is the warmest temperature ever recorded in the state in the month of March. From what I've read, the record was 89 degrees, also set in Lapeer on March 27, 1910. That 1910 record, , like a lot of the extremely high all-time records from that era, seems spuriously high when looking at temps that day elsewhere in SE Michigan (i.e. at Detroit and Saginaw). NCDC is currently down for maintenance, so I haven't been able to access the actual observations from 1910 for Lapeer, Detroit, or Saginaw to verify this information. But from the NWS White Lake website, the record at Detroit for that date is only 81 and was set in 2007 and at Saginaw is only 79 and set in 1945. At least with yesterday's 90 degree reading, there were a number of sites reporting temps in the upper 80s across Michgian. There doesn't seem to be any support for upper 80s in late March 1910 anywhere in SE Michigan.
In addition, today, the ASOS at Detroit Willow Run Airport in Ypsilanti reached a high temperature of 89, which itself would tie the old Lapeer record. It will be interesting to see the co-op temps tomorrow to see if there were any other 89/90 degree readings posted.
I don't want to hold a private conversation. It also occurs to me that you could have followed your own advice and sent me this missive in email so apparently you don't want to either. You'd rather diss me in public. Why didn't you tell Pat the same thing? Your post got a plus 5. Go figure.
MA is right, your wrong. Jose and Don are probably going to be retired. Same with Franklin
I don't know the Barometer Bob show. I'll check it out, thanks!
It is quite likely we will survive, and I don't believe anyone except for the extreme nuts are saying anything otherwise. But it will be far more than just "a few ordeals".
We depend on a stable climate to be able to grow the massive amounts of produce needed to support our population. Warmer temperatures means more pests, more invasive species, disease migration, and possible desertification of arable land. Combined with lack of genetic diversity of most crops it wouldn't take much to wreck havoc on our agricultural sector. A serious 5 year drought or an invasive species (like the bark beetle out in Colorado) in this country's bread basket would have devastating consequences for example.
This doesn't even consider the increased energy consumption, rising sea-levels, and other effects a rapidly warming planet will bring.
Increased socio-economic pressures will likely lead to more wars over resources, mass migrations, and other such events.
In the end, humans will survive, though the manner of our survival remains to be seen.
We can look at some facts that we do have at hand.
There's a tremendous amount of carbon stored in permafrost. Melt the permafrost and that carbon can be added to our atmospheric blanket. (We saw a big hunk of 'permafrost' burn last year.
There's a lot of cold-trapped methane that increased warming can release. Methane is very effective at short term warming and converts to CO2 for long term additional warming.
There's a possibility of drying out (or bug-killing) massive amounts of existing forests, having them burn, and adding more CO2 to our atmosphere.
There are other factors that come into play as things heat up. The carbon stored in topsoil (humus)gets converted quickly to CO2, for example.
Any/all of these events increase warming far beyond what we've caused by burning fossil fuels. This is the "too late" risk. It would create a climate in which it would be difficult for humans to exist in other than small, well provided for numbers.
Think biospheres for a few very rich folks.
--
Is there any guarantee that we would go there?
There are only educated guesses.
Does it make sense to run that experiment with us as the lab rats?
I think that's a pretty good estimate of the situation. That assumes, of course, that we actually address the problem in a meaningful way. If we don't...
No internet for August, September or October young man!
I think that the probable negative results from genetic modification of our food crops ranks right up at the top of the unintended consequences list
Actually that's not quite correct. The research indicates that we have surpassed the "point of no return". Even if we stopped producing CO2 entirely, the planet would continue to warm. Several papers have demonstrated that the additional warmth will be enough to trigger several positive feedbacks which will further warm the planet (permafrost, clathrates, etc.).
It remains to be seen if anything will be done about it. But if you want to get a good idea of whether or not something is up, just keep your eyes on the insurance companies. :P
Don't think it would be the rich folks surviving.. it would be the military
Never count out the smart people. ;)
They discussed my question extensively, very friendly show.
sorry but the miltary is the first to go
its the largest consumer of oil and gas by far
take away the oil and gas and all your left with is foot soliders
CO2 adds a small amount of warming over the long term (1-2 watts/m^2 if you double). The rest of the globe is below normal now, because of this La Nina. CO2 probably accounted for a 1-2F to this heat in March, if that.
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