Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:17 PM GMT del 22 Marzo 2012 | +37 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Saw where a Huge Oak tree in Audubon Park lost a large portion of Bark from a Lightening strike.
I also think that the next strong El Nino will feature temperatures far higher than the record so far. Also, it is likely that a combination of the lengthy solar minimum of which you speak of in the 2000's, frequent La Nina's, and a distinct lack of moderately strong El Nino's is what "stabilized" the upward trend we were experiencing in the 80's and 90's.
It may be good news to some that the climate has "stabilized" over the last 10-12 years but in my opinion it's actually bad. The halt of the upward nature in temperatures is what fuelled debates over the last decade. These debates, which should have clearly ended in the 90's because it is obvious our climate is changing at a very rapid rate, have led many to believe that climate change is a hoax, conspiracy or whatnot.
Hopefully as the temperature starts climbing again, so too will the incentive and urgency of people to change our ways as quickly as possible.
Taken from wikipedia:
As you can see, since 2000, there has been a lack of moderately-strong El Ninos. La Ninas were much more frequent in the last 10 or so years than between 1980 and the year 2000. Just look at the amount of El Ninos in the 80's and 90's. This might have cause an exaggeration in the upward trend a little but not by much and now that we are experiencing frequent La Nina's since around 2000, the trend has somewhat stabilized.
Looking at the first graph, every La Nina since 1986 has been warmer than the last.
It's very feasible we reach an anomaly of +0.7C this year.
This is what I think... we won't know for sure until say another 5-8 years but I think that ample evidence will present itself between now and 2020 (which is around the time where solar will become close to parity in a lot of places) and we will finally start heading in a forward direction.
Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center
Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming.
It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?
Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements.
These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.
The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
Yes, I believe that most of us, if not all, are aware of what layer of the atmosphere was being discussed in the article. The question was brought up as to if the increased solar activity was a causation for the recent high temps that have been observed. A notation was made that the solar activity should have impacted the entire climate and not just where the much higher than normal temps have been observed. Unless there is some evidence that the solar activity was somehow concentrated to a single region on Earth, then the statement that it would be global and not regional is a valid statement. I believe that this is all that was being pointed out.
No, dude. Money and organized opposition to climate science fueled the "debates".
Yes, but I believe if the trend had continued climbing at a rapid rate we would have eventually realized that politics are uncalled for and we need to act now.
the man walking the dog analogy at play.
Any effect on the troposphere would be slight I believe. The energy was radiated to space soon after. It's all pretty moot.
This is true. The vast majority of the energy was redirected back into space. ... I just hope that some do not begin saying that we need to increase the amount of the upper atmospheric levels of CO2 and nitric oxide to help protect us against any future solar activity. I feel fairly certain that WUWT will soon have an article along this very train of thought. sigh
Amount of coldest Antarctic water near ocean floor decreasing for decades
Be sure you are sitting down when you read this one... !
Georgia Arms is the 5th largest retailer of .223 Ammo in America. They sell 9mm, .45, .223 ammunition. They normally buy spent brass from the US Department of Defense (DOD). Spent brass is "one time used" shell cases used by our Military for training purposes.
They buy the brass, recondition it, and then reload the brass for resale to Law Enforcement, Gun Clubs, Gun Shops, and stores like Wal-Mart. They normally buy 30,000 lbs of spent brass at a time.
This week the DOD wrote a letter to the owner of Georgia Arms and informed him that from now on the DOD will be destroying the spent brass, shredding it. It will no longer be available to the ammo makers, unless they buy it in a scrap, shredded condition (which they have no use for).
The shredded brass is now going to be sold by the DOD to China as scrap metal, after the DOD pays for it to be shredded. The DOD is selling the brass to China for less money than the ammo makers have been paying, plus the DOD has to pay to have the brass shredded and do the accounting paperwork.
This sure helps the economy now doesn't it? Sell cheaper to China, and do not sell at all to a proven US business. Any hidden agenda working here? Obama is going after the Firearms Industry and our ammunition!! The Georgia Arms owner even related a story that one of his competitors had already purchased a load of brass last week. The DOD contacted him this week and said they were sending someone over to make sure it was destroyed. (Shell cases he had already bought!)
The brass has no value to the ammo maker if it is destroyed/shredded/melted. The ammo manufacturer only uses the empty brass cases to reload different calibers, mainly .223 bullets.
The owner of Georgia Arms says that he will have to lay off at least half of his 60 workers, within 2-3 months if the DOD will no longer sell spent brass cases to the industry. Georgia Arms has 2-3 months of inventory to use and by summer they're out.
If the Reloading Industry has to purchase new manufacture brass cases, then the cost of ammunition will double or even triple, plus Obama wants to add a 500% tax on each shell.
You can read the information and see the DOD letter to Georgia Arms here:
The Shootist Site.... http://www.theshootist.net/2009/03/dod-ends-sale-o f-expended-military.html
If you're not outraged at what this administration is doing, you should be!
Be Afraid! Be Very, Very Afraid! Get involved! It's Your Freedom and our Country they're Stealing! If You Fail to Act Now, there may not be a Free United States tomorrow!
I implore you to get involved and forward this to as many people as you can. Contact your legislators and put them on notice, "We're fed up with what's going on in the name of stimulating our economy!"
Vote the bum out in 2012 !!!
LOL
ya may wanna check yer, er.."Sources" there sport.
Mixture of true and outdated information
Small arms cartridge case policy revised
3/20/2009
Tonya Johnson
703-767-6310
LaTonya.Johnson@dla.mil
But thanx for playing, u can collect yer consolation button on the way out, the Lady at the end of the blog will see to yas.
Yep! I saw this very same email several years ago. I see that it is "making the rounds" ( hmmmmmm, was that a pun??? ) once again. LOL
Thanks for clearing that up. I'm glad you were on top of that. Pretty quick response! You must know a little something about it.
5,077 daily high records (set or tied)
5,032 daily high minimum records (set or tied)
10,109 daily high records (set or tied)
100 daily low records (set or tied)
350 daily low maximum records (set or tied)
450 daily low records (set or tied)
Ratio of daily high records to daily low records: 50.77 to 1
Ratio of daily high minimum records to daily low maximum records: 14.37 to 1
Overall warm record/cool record ratio: 22.46 to 1.
-----------------------------
Month-to-date warm temperature records set or tied to cool temperature records set or tied: 11,954 to 796 (15.02 to 1)
Year-to-date warm temperature records set or tied to cool temperature records set or tied: 18,424 to 1,609 (11.45 to 1)
All-time March high, and high minimum, temperature records set or tied this month: 430
All-time March low, and low maximum, temperature records set or tied this month: 9
As a former US Marine, Truth trumps Political posturing every time.
Esp in a weather,"science" entry.
If one has to place their obvious point of view, maybe open a Blog entry and post it.
That way you can express your opinion by not injecting it into the conversation here.
Wow! Didn't realize it was that old. Guess a little research before posting would have been a good idea.
Do I detect a slight suggestion that I might be old? LOL
Hiyas, Pat!
2001-2010 warmest decade on record: WMO
"Climate change has accelerated in the past decade, the UN weather agency said Friday, releasing data showing that 2001 to 2010 was the warmest decade on record.
The 10-year period was also marked by extreme levels of rain or snowfall, leading to significant flooding on all continents, while droughts affected parts of East Africa and North America.
"The decade 2001-2010 was the warmest since records began in 1850, with global land and sea surface temperatures estimated at 0.46 degrees Celsius above the long term average of 14.0 degrees Celsius (57.2 degrees Fahrenheit)," said the World Meteorological Organisation.
Nine of the 10 years also counted among the 10 warmest on record, it added, noting that "climate change accelerated" during the first decade of the 21st century.
The trend continued in 2011, which was the warmest year on record despite La Nina -- a weather pattern which has a cooling effect.
The average temperature in 2011 was 0.40 degrees Celsius above the long term average, said the WMO.
"This 2011 annual assessment confirms the findings of the previous WMO annual statements that climate change is happening now and is not some distant future threat," said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.
"The world is warming because of human activities and this is resulting in far-reaching and potentially irreversible impacts on our Earth, atmosphere and oceans," he added.
The UN weather agency noted that during the decade, "numerous weather and climate extremes affected almost every part of the globe with flooding, droughts, cyclones, heat waves and cold waves."
Historical floods hit Eastern Europe in 2001 and 2005, Africa in 2008, Asia and Australia in 2010.
Global precipitation -- including rain or snow -- reached the second highest average since 1901. THe highest average was recorded for the decade 1951-1960.
Meanwhile for the North Atlantic basin, the 10 years marked the highest level of tropical cyclone activity, including Hurricane Katrina which struck the United States in 2005 and Cyclone Nargis which hit Myanmar in 2008."
Oh gosh, crap like this hits this blog all the time. I'm sure you've dropped a few turds like this in your time as well. Besides, a new Dr. Masters post is bound to be coming down the pipes momentarily anyhow. I do apologize, however, for damaging your delicate sensitivity to the nature of this blog. I'll remember to keep my opinions to myself next time instead of injecting them into the obvious ongoing weather discussion.
Interesting Houston facts:
February & March (through the 22nd) rain totals - 2011: 0.78
2012: 13.65
I got blooms on my blooms!
Goin to Wimberley this weekend - the bluebonnets are exploding!
C'mon Pat, apologize.
Heh!
A "large" un too.
: )
It took .37 of one minute using Google & snope's.
I lub me some web ya know's!!!
But I digress.
Here's sum weather though.
Itsa tad stale though, the HPC Guys are slow to update as of late.
Spring break and all ya know.
483 oreodogsghost: Sweet - have anything to do with an incident on an offshore installation (operated by a US subsidiary of a foreign corporation) that sounds like a South American snake?
Does it rhyme with DannyDarko?
You are correct. I have dropped a few myself over the years. That is why I check the bushes a little closer now before I drop anything these days.
The email sounds very convincing. That was part of its intent. Many have been fooled by it. You are not the first and you will not be the last. ... Life goes on.
I didn't know. I'm so sorry you have to deal with that - but I'm glad you gotcha some good lawyers for getting what's rightfully yours.
You know, I really don't give a flying fig if you're going to have to pay more money in order to make loud noises and make yourself feel like a big man.
If it cuts down on the number of yahoos who mess up the tranquility of weekends around here trying to see who can chop down a tree fastest with their gun of choice, I'll applaud.
Furthermore, what do you have against the free market?
Refinery refractory Work, and it was Dad, I'm just well, A Dead Man walking as I was exposed for 3 years before I went to work for Reagan.
wunderblog entry
Ease up Bob. You obviously didn't read the email thoroughly. I'm not here to get into a verbal battle (with you especially).
I enjoy shooting as a hobby. By no means does it make me a bigger or tougher man by doing so. Your obvious enthusiasm opposing my position is probably more than I want to take on right now. I'm sorry you feel so negatively about firearms. You must have had or known of too many bad experiences involving them. I'll do us both a favor and retreat knowing you and I are two very different people (in all ways of life judging by your previous posts). I guess thats what makes this country great!
I understand completely.
But to put yer opine at the end of a statement that's out of date shows your intent.
Vote the bum out in 2012 !!!
It was a political swipe at the CnC.
This isnt a forum for it, though we all sometimes drift into it.
Maybe I should have deleted that part of the email. My only words were at the top in italics.
I have absolutely nothing against firearms. My issue is only with some of the people who use them.
I grew up around guns. I hunted when I was young. I own a shotgun. I used it a couple of years ago to put down my old, very sick dog.
If someone wants to shoot deer/whatever for meat I've got no problem with that. If someone enjoys target shooting, I'm fine with that.
What I'm not fine with are the jerks who create their identity behind a gun.
But I don't know why we should support hobby shooters with our tax dollars. If the Chinese are willing to pay more for brass, then sell it to them. If you want to outbid the Chinese with money out of your pocket you can likely take the market away from the Chinese.
Thank you for posting that article.
We need reminders that behind statistics are real people....
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