High risk of a major tornado outbreak today; 13 dead from Leap Day outbreak
A powerful spring storm system is gathering strength over Missouri this morning, and will track northeastward into Southern Michigan tonight. The atmosphere in the storm's warm sector, south of the the warm front and east of the cold front, is very unstable, thanks to a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface, and very cold, dry air aloft. A powerful jet stream with winds winds aloft blowing at 150 mph will interact with this unstable air, and the strong change of wind speed and direction with height (wind shear) associated with this jet will impart a strong twisting motion to updrafts that from in this afternoon's thunderstorms along the cold front. These are ideal conditions for tornado formation, and a large tornado outbreak with damaging long-track tornadoes is likely late this afternoon in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. While the conditions are not as dangerous as those we saw in 2011 during the May 21 - 25 Joplin, Missouri and late April Southeast U.S. tornado outbreaks, the potential exists for a punishing tornado assault with many more strong and violent tornadoes than occurred during the Leap Day outbreak. A number of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have already formed this morning along the storm's warm front, in Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.
Figure 1. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon. This is highest level of alert.
Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a 30% chance of tornadoes today within 25 miles of each point in the pink shaded area. Within the hatched area, there is a 10% or greater probability of strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes, or violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Leap Day tornado outbreak death toll hits 13
The cleanup continues today from the round of deadly tornadoes that pounded the Midwest on Leap Day, killing thirteen people. The outbreak began on February 28, when nine confirmed tornadoes touched down. A pair of EF-2 tornadoes hit Buffalo, Missouri and Harveyville, Kansas, with each twister causing one death. Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950. The outbreak continued on Leap Day, February 29, with 27 more confirmed tornadoes. Hardest hit was Harrisburg, Illinois, where a violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph killed six, injured approximately 100, and damaged 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path 26.5 miles long and 275 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. The only EF-3 tornado of the outbreak hit Asherville, Missouri that day, killing one person. The other deadly tornadoes of the outbreak included an EF-2 tornado that killed one person in Cassville, MO; an EF-2 that killed two in Monterey, Tennessee, and an EF-1 that killed one person in Smithville, Tennessee. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri on Leap Day, injuring 33 people. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions, and could add up to the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S. The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down.
Figure 3. Damage at the Branson, Missouri Hilton after the Leap Day tornado. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theatres--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the unserved, under served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!
Figure 4. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.
Jeff Masters
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AT 954 PM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO
WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.
Significant damage reported with tornado that has just struck near Billingsley, AL
it looked like it was going to fat girls cafe per Spann
Sorry...maybe I'm a little bit touchy. I spent weeks there and really thought a lot of these folks. It just kinda read that way. This is a close knit town of special folks.
It has been reported that people are trapped in buildings.
that damage appears to be EF3 or greater
N of montgomery. Ouch. classic
NO! No more!
We've finally made it down to just two tornado warnings after our peak of 31 at one time.
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL TALLADEGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
Yes, it just went tornado warned.
EXHIBITING VELOCITIES SEEMINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR A STRONG TORNADO
--STRADDLING CHILTON AND AUTAUGA COUNTIES IN ALABAMA-- WITH THIS
STORM PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO E-CNTRL AL WITHIN A FAVORABLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. KMXX VAD SHOWS 400-500 0-1 KM SRH
WHICH WILL SUPPORT NOT ONLY SUSTAINING LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES BUT
POSE THE RISK FOR MULTIPLE TORNADOES WITH ANY VIGOROUS SUPERCELL
MOVING FROM CNTRL AL EWD INTO WRN GA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1017 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
ALC121-030427-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120303T0500Z/
TALLADEGA AL-
1017 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL TALLADEGA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.
LAT...LON 3341 8544 3337 8592 3339 8593 3345 8592
3346 8591 3364 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 253DEG 41KT 3342 8586
$$
The last one was West Liberty, Kentucky.
Real men don't take breaks, I've been checking storms since 8am EST :D.... take it and enjoy man, you've earned it. thanks for all the pictures/info you rolled.
Kathleen, things will likely remain quiet for us. At least insofar as tornadic potential is concerned. At most I'd be concerned with the possibility of briefly damaging wind gusts, and even that seems unlikely.
No, that looks like a pig that ate Fukushima spinach.
A POSSIBLE TORNADO.
HI...that is what I am thinking too..of course the winds will bring down limbs and possiblly some trees..and I have LOTS of them around my house!!..lol
What do you think fellas? I'm thinking .... Joan Crawford, and wire coat hangers.
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