High risk of a major tornado outbreak today; 13 dead from Leap Day outbreak
A powerful spring storm system is gathering strength over Missouri this morning, and will track northeastward into Southern Michigan tonight. The atmosphere in the storm's warm sector, south of the the warm front and east of the cold front, is very unstable, thanks to a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface, and very cold, dry air aloft. A powerful jet stream with winds winds aloft blowing at 150 mph will interact with this unstable air, and the strong change of wind speed and direction with height (wind shear) associated with this jet will impart a strong twisting motion to updrafts that from in this afternoon's thunderstorms along the cold front. These are ideal conditions for tornado formation, and a large tornado outbreak with damaging long-track tornadoes is likely late this afternoon in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. While the conditions are not as dangerous as those we saw in 2011 during the May 21 - 25 Joplin, Missouri and late April Southeast U.S. tornado outbreaks, the potential exists for a punishing tornado assault with many more strong and violent tornadoes than occurred during the Leap Day outbreak. A number of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have already formed this morning along the storm's warm front, in Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.
Figure 1. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon. This is highest level of alert.
Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a 30% chance of tornadoes today within 25 miles of each point in the pink shaded area. Within the hatched area, there is a 10% or greater probability of strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes, or violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Leap Day tornado outbreak death toll hits 13
The cleanup continues today from the round of deadly tornadoes that pounded the Midwest on Leap Day, killing thirteen people. The outbreak began on February 28, when nine confirmed tornadoes touched down. A pair of EF-2 tornadoes hit Buffalo, Missouri and Harveyville, Kansas, with each twister causing one death. Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950. The outbreak continued on Leap Day, February 29, with 27 more confirmed tornadoes. Hardest hit was Harrisburg, Illinois, where a violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph killed six, injured approximately 100, and damaged 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path 26.5 miles long and 275 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. The only EF-3 tornado of the outbreak hit Asherville, Missouri that day, killing one person. The other deadly tornadoes of the outbreak included an EF-2 tornado that killed one person in Cassville, MO; an EF-2 that killed two in Monterey, Tennessee, and an EF-1 that killed one person in Smithville, Tennessee. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri on Leap Day, injuring 33 people. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions, and could add up to the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S. The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down.
Figure 3. Damage at the Branson, Missouri Hilton after the Leap Day tornado. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theatres--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the unserved, under served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!
Figure 4. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.
Jeff Masters
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day 2 outlook
That's after reports Friday night of widespread damage, injuries and deaths the Morgan County community.
The Red Cross is assessing the situation across the state.
It says its trained volunteers will be sent out as needed.
The National Weather Service reported around 6:15 pm Friday that Morgan County law enforcement officers inside a vehicle had been hit by a tornado.
Meanwhile the Morehead Fire Department says Morgan County officials are asking surrounding areas to send ambulances and search and rescue crews to help.
http://www.wtvq.com/content/localnews/story/Red-C ross-Mobilizing-Volunteers-to-Help-in-West-Li/aTuu 7_SXfUqb8rgkrlPhxA.cspx?rss=3441
Records past 2 days
When you have a Gulf that much above average, and so many record high surface temperatures there is a HUGE amount of energy available.
Over night lows that are higher than the average day time high?
Breaking records by 5 to 22 degrees? Astounding.
You don't think that's unnatural?
My goodness.
when they cme to NC, i shall put my hand up and tell them to stop. they will then turn around and head southwestwards lol
GOOD, them stupid media idiots need to stay out!
i hate it when media gets in, cuz all they care about is their stupid news film. they wont care if somebody needs help, they will just film them and move on.
From what we saw on radar, there is probably a really good reason for that. And it's not a "good" reason :(
Those poor people.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?db=pubme d&cmd=link&linkname=pubmed_pubmed&uid=22197531
Study: All of Western US and most of East Coast, Midwest, Canada covered in airborne particles on March 20, Fukushima plume model shows Based solely on Reactor No. 1 explosion
i could understand them not wanting cameras in, but it is a newsworthy event. someone should be allowed in to be the eyes of the world.
The one that hit West Liberty was strongest, but they had a total of 2 strong tornados and a third very powerful STS pass right over the same general area during about a 1 hour span of time.
* AT 938 PM EST...A DEBRIS SIGNATURE INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR
CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR SUWANEE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
they can go film their house if they want to get a stinkin story i really could care less about the STUPID media!
We are at 91 so far.
Over 100.
ya they are different, when i say media i refer to news stations. TWC is (mostly) weather.
well i think the media can do their job without being a disruption to search and rescue, and without cameras and interviews. just use your eyes.
but that is just me.
another thing to consider is that a LOT of the roads are probably very much inaccessible.
Link
It what's left of a church...
I agree. There will be enough time/damage left over tomorrow for media to tape all they want. Right now i'm listening to county radio scanners, they are busy trying to clear areas as they search out people/attempt to fix power lines. Having the media there will just hinder there efforts. The damage will be there tomorrow for the media to see.
Nah, they're mostly hypers. I prefer my NWS to them.
West Liberty:
I wish they could, but they are a nuisance. I have helped with these search&rescues/ damage reports before, the media doesn't just film, they want to talk to people and walk around these homes, getting in the way, and it's not to help.
Seriously looks like a war zone. How terrible. :(
You are probably referring to me. And again, coming as someone from the NWS who has been through warning training and has used radar data to analyze easily 100 cases, I can tell you that radar does not spot tornadoes. At best, you can use information that the radar detects to compile a confidence level that a tornado exists.
To repeat...
If radar data is good data, it can see strong winds that are consistent with a strong mesocyclone or, in some cases, the actual tornadic circulation. These winds are not necessarily the tornado, but are indicative of the circulation that can help cause the tornado, or may be winds rotating around a tornadic circulation and are caused by it.
Even with dual pol, the radar is not really spotting a tornado. It is detecting a distribution of targets that are varying in sizes and shapes, and if they vary to a certain extent, it can be consistent with debris lifted into the storm.
Radar is a remote sensing tool, it can lie to you.
When you merge all of the radar information together, still the best you can get is that a tornado is very likely on the ground (probably 90-95% confidence), and perhaps that it is very likely a strong tornado. It certainly would be wise in those situations to convey that information to the public, which is why the NWS is using that information in a tornado warning statement.
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