High risk of a major tornado outbreak today; 13 dead from Leap Day outbreak
A powerful spring storm system is gathering strength over Missouri this morning, and will track northeastward into Southern Michigan tonight. The atmosphere in the storm's warm sector, south of the the warm front and east of the cold front, is very unstable, thanks to a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface, and very cold, dry air aloft. A powerful jet stream with winds winds aloft blowing at 150 mph will interact with this unstable air, and the strong change of wind speed and direction with height (wind shear) associated with this jet will impart a strong twisting motion to updrafts that from in this afternoon's thunderstorms along the cold front. These are ideal conditions for tornado formation, and a large tornado outbreak with damaging long-track tornadoes is likely late this afternoon in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. While the conditions are not as dangerous as those we saw in 2011 during the May 21 - 25 Joplin, Missouri and late April Southeast U.S. tornado outbreaks, the potential exists for a punishing tornado assault with many more strong and violent tornadoes than occurred during the Leap Day outbreak. A number of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have already formed this morning along the storm's warm front, in Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.
Figure 1. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon. This is highest level of alert.
Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a 30% chance of tornadoes today within 25 miles of each point in the pink shaded area. Within the hatched area, there is a 10% or greater probability of strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes, or violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Leap Day tornado outbreak death toll hits 13
The cleanup continues today from the round of deadly tornadoes that pounded the Midwest on Leap Day, killing thirteen people. The outbreak began on February 28, when nine confirmed tornadoes touched down. A pair of EF-2 tornadoes hit Buffalo, Missouri and Harveyville, Kansas, with each twister causing one death. Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950. The outbreak continued on Leap Day, February 29, with 27 more confirmed tornadoes. Hardest hit was Harrisburg, Illinois, where a violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph killed six, injured approximately 100, and damaged 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path 26.5 miles long and 275 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. The only EF-3 tornado of the outbreak hit Asherville, Missouri that day, killing one person. The other deadly tornadoes of the outbreak included an EF-2 tornado that killed one person in Cassville, MO; an EF-2 that killed two in Monterey, Tennessee, and an EF-1 that killed one person in Smithville, Tennessee. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri on Leap Day, injuring 33 people. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions, and could add up to the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S. The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down.
Figure 3. Damage at the Branson, Missouri Hilton after the Leap Day tornado. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theatres--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the unserved, under served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!
Figure 4. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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NEXRAD Radar
Type
Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range
124 NMI
Unlikely for us. The front didn't come north as expected. Just potential strong winds tomorrow morning.
Storm near Meridian upgraded to severe.
I couldnt imagine being in the dark and hearing it come my way ...
what front?
These cells look so much like the cells we had in April of last year here in NC. Separated so they are able to do their own thing. Started forming just east of Durham so missed out on the whole thing. Thank goodness.
Harvest, AL
Link
Stay safe Hydrus.
Per NWS...reports of semi flipped on I-75 north of London, KY. #Damage to homes.
i had a EF3 destroy my Lowe's about 5 miles to my E, while i was experiencing spiked golf-ball sized hail
Sleeping in the basement can be a very good thing tonight if you are in the path of these storms. If you have kids you can pretend that you are camping out, or something like that.
A friend's basement will work, too, if you don't have one yourself.
Not quite sure what you're seeing...
Maybe not much population in that immediate area, but once it nears the river, the population density will increase substantially...
i be back later
Amazing, and to think today is March 2.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 657 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 756 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 656 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 752 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 652 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 751 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 650 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 749 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 748 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 745 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 646 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 745 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 644 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 644 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
I don't think so. These storms will remain extremely dangerous and will be capable of producing violent tornadoes for the next several hours.
And it's March 2nd....
I think that we have been all warned to expect more Extreme Weather, everywhere.
I hope this is another anomaly. But I kind of doubt it, somehow.
Very tragic situation.
Tornado should be on the ground.
SOME DISCRETE CELLS MAY STILL POSE A DANGER
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