High risk of a major tornado outbreak today; 13 dead from Leap Day outbreak
A powerful spring storm system is gathering strength over Missouri this morning, and will track northeastward into Southern Michigan tonight. The atmosphere in the storm's warm sector, south of the the warm front and east of the cold front, is very unstable, thanks to a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface, and very cold, dry air aloft. A powerful jet stream with winds winds aloft blowing at 150 mph will interact with this unstable air, and the strong change of wind speed and direction with height (wind shear) associated with this jet will impart a strong twisting motion to updrafts that from in this afternoon's thunderstorms along the cold front. These are ideal conditions for tornado formation, and a large tornado outbreak with damaging long-track tornadoes is likely late this afternoon in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. While the conditions are not as dangerous as those we saw in 2011 during the May 21 - 25 Joplin, Missouri and late April Southeast U.S. tornado outbreaks, the potential exists for a punishing tornado assault with many more strong and violent tornadoes than occurred during the Leap Day outbreak. A number of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have already formed this morning along the storm's warm front, in Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.
Figure 1. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon. This is highest level of alert.
Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a 30% chance of tornadoes today within 25 miles of each point in the pink shaded area. Within the hatched area, there is a 10% or greater probability of strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes, or violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Leap Day tornado outbreak death toll hits 13
The cleanup continues today from the round of deadly tornadoes that pounded the Midwest on Leap Day, killing thirteen people. The outbreak began on February 28, when nine confirmed tornadoes touched down. A pair of EF-2 tornadoes hit Buffalo, Missouri and Harveyville, Kansas, with each twister causing one death. Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950. The outbreak continued on Leap Day, February 29, with 27 more confirmed tornadoes. Hardest hit was Harrisburg, Illinois, where a violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph killed six, injured approximately 100, and damaged 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path 26.5 miles long and 275 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. The only EF-3 tornado of the outbreak hit Asherville, Missouri that day, killing one person. The other deadly tornadoes of the outbreak included an EF-2 tornado that killed one person in Cassville, MO; an EF-2 that killed two in Monterey, Tennessee, and an EF-1 that killed one person in Smithville, Tennessee. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri on Leap Day, injuring 33 people. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions, and could add up to the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S. The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down.
Figure 3. Damage at the Branson, Missouri Hilton after the Leap Day tornado. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theatres--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the unserved, under served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!
Figure 4. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 — Blog Index
working dem hosses today fer sure
Pass on any words on West Liberty, m having Zero Luck..
#Tornado reported near Putnam/Overton Co. line in Tenn. TAKE COVER in Livingston, TN.
Need to get a hold of them and tell them to take cover. Not trying to scare you but this is a cyclic supercell producing large tornadoes.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN-CNTRL-NERN AL / W-CNTRL AND NWRN GA /
FAR SERN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...61...63...
VALID 022341Z - 030145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
59...61...63...CONTINUES.
TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF AL AND
WRN-NWRN GA. ASIDE FROM THE THREAT OF TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT/...SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO POSE AN ACCOMPANYING DMGG
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS RISK.
23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE UNIMPEDED WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ACROSS AL AND MOVING INTO WRN PARTS OF GA --AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER
NWRN MS. 3 HR CHANGE IN SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SHOW A DECREASE OF
2-7 DEG F AND A 2 DEG F INCREASE...RESPECTIVELY. THE FORECAST
CONTINUED TREND IN LOWERING SURFACE SPREADS AND LESS SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SEEMINGLY PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ACCOMPANY A STRENGTHENING IN THE LLJ
/40-55 KTS/ FROM SWRN AND W-CNTRL AL NEWD INTO NRN GA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL TORNADO
EPISODE FROM CNTRL AND E-CNTRL AL NEWD INTO N-CNTRL GA. THIS
SCENARIO IS AT LEAST SUPPORTED TO A CERTAIN EXTENT BY THE LATEST
STORM-SCALE MODEL ENSEMBLE /SSEO/. AS SUCH...SCATTERED DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL POSE AN ATTENDANT ISOLD TORNADO THREAT --WITH
PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.
..SMITH.. 03/02/2012
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 645 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 545 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 544 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 644 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 643 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 543 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 543 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 541 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 641 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 540 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 640 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 540 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 638 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 638 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 537 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 538 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 634 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 535 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 634 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 533 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 633 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 532 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 532 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 630 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 629 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 628 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 528 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 627 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 526 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 526 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
Same here :(
Can anyone give me update? Which towns/cities got hit tonight? I know Henryville, IN and West Liberty, KN got hit hard.
#Tornado reported west of Ozark, AL moving east. TAKE COVER in the city of Ozark!
Based on the videos, WHAS meteorologists estimate some of them as borderline EF4 or EF5, but that's unofficial.
S. Alabama is flaring up with isolated tornadoes, maybe peaking. At least it's not as bad as Tennessee or Kentucky, as far as anything obvious...
am i in the clear?
Stay safe! I'll send positive vibes your way. ^_^ I hope that didn't sound too corny.
it went north of them, THANK THE LORD!!!!!!
next time i go up there, i shall buy them a weather radio
Looks like West Liberty, Nashville and Chatanoga got slammed pretty hard. I would imagine there will be a lot deaths from this outbreak today.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
OHC053-105-WVC035-039-053-079-087-105-107-030030-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120303T0030Z/
GALLIA OH-MEIGS OH-PUTNAM WV-MASON WV-KANAWHA WV-JACKSON WV-WIRT WV-
WOOD WV-ROANE WV-
650 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EST
FOR SOUTHERN MEIGS AND EASTERN GALLIA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...
AND WESTERN ROANE...SOUTHERN WOOD...WIRT...JACKSON...NORTHERN
KANAWHA...MASON AND NORTHERN PUTNAM COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA...
AT 648 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKIN...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF POMEROY...MOVING EAST AT 65
MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BANCROFT...POCA...HARTFORD CITY...CROSS LANES...SYRACUSE...LETART...
NEW HAVEN...MOUNT ALTO...RACINE...CHESTER...LIBERTY...COTTAGEVILLE.. .
EVANS...GIVEN...SISSONVILLE...RAVENSWOOD...KENNA. ..PORTLAND...
FAIRPLAIN...RIPLEY...COAL FORK...FORKED RUN STATE PARK...STATTS
MILLS...KENTUCK...REEDSVILLE...SANDYVILLE...PINCH ...BELLEVILLE...
ELKVIEW...GAY...HARMONY...LEROY...CLENDENIN...WAL TON...ROCKPORT...
GANDEEVILLE...PEEWEE...MORRISTOWN...REEDY...MINER ALWELLS...SPENCER...
DAVISVILLE...LOONEYVILLE...LUCILLE...PALESTINE... ELIZABETH...
GREENCASTLE...CHERRY...WALKER AND FREEPORT
THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-77 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 102 AND 171 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 22.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.
&&
PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
LAT...LON 3866 8128 3826 8141 3870 8236 3893 8219
3906 8226 3916 8180 3915 8169 3919 8160
3924 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 254DEG 57KT 3896 8203
$$
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 654 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 554 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 553 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 652 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 551 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 650 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 549 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 648 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
There's another very strong cell probably misses West Liberty a few miles to the south, and a THIRD that may go straight down the middle again. Maybe 10 or 15 minutes out...
I don't know what to say. Anybody there in rescue efforts needs to hurry it up and take shelter themselves.
Strong radar signature of #tornado moving into Blount Co., TN. TAKE COVER in Maryville! Alert/radar: http://wxch.nl/wUO8Sd[via Twitter]
2332 7 SE GAINESBORO JACKSON TN 3628 8558 TORNADO REPORTED NEAR HWY 136 NEAR THE PUTNAM COUNTY-OVERTON COUNTY LINE. (OHX)
Strong radar signature of #tornado moving into Blount Co., TN. TAKE COVER in Maryville!
Sounds like possible EF-5
Uh-oh... that tornado in SE Kentucky is about to tight up. That's a huge supercell...
Viewing: 1151 - 1201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 — Blog Index