High risk of a major tornado outbreak today; 13 dead from Leap Day outbreak
A powerful spring storm system is gathering strength over Missouri this morning, and will track northeastward into Southern Michigan tonight. The atmosphere in the storm's warm sector, south of the the warm front and east of the cold front, is very unstable, thanks to a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface, and very cold, dry air aloft. A powerful jet stream with winds winds aloft blowing at 150 mph will interact with this unstable air, and the strong change of wind speed and direction with height (wind shear) associated with this jet will impart a strong twisting motion to updrafts that from in this afternoon's thunderstorms along the cold front. These are ideal conditions for tornado formation, and a large tornado outbreak with damaging long-track tornadoes is likely late this afternoon in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. While the conditions are not as dangerous as those we saw in 2011 during the May 21 - 25 Joplin, Missouri and late April Southeast U.S. tornado outbreaks, the potential exists for a punishing tornado assault with many more strong and violent tornadoes than occurred during the Leap Day outbreak. A number of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have already formed this morning along the storm's warm front, in Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.
Figure 1. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon. This is highest level of alert.
Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a 30% chance of tornadoes today within 25 miles of each point in the pink shaded area. Within the hatched area, there is a 10% or greater probability of strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes, or violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Leap Day tornado outbreak death toll hits 13
The cleanup continues today from the round of deadly tornadoes that pounded the Midwest on Leap Day, killing thirteen people. The outbreak began on February 28, when nine confirmed tornadoes touched down. A pair of EF-2 tornadoes hit Buffalo, Missouri and Harveyville, Kansas, with each twister causing one death. Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950. The outbreak continued on Leap Day, February 29, with 27 more confirmed tornadoes. Hardest hit was Harrisburg, Illinois, where a violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph killed six, injured approximately 100, and damaged 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path 26.5 miles long and 275 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. The only EF-3 tornado of the outbreak hit Asherville, Missouri that day, killing one person. The other deadly tornadoes of the outbreak included an EF-2 tornado that killed one person in Cassville, MO; an EF-2 that killed two in Monterey, Tennessee, and an EF-1 that killed one person in Smithville, Tennessee. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri on Leap Day, injuring 33 people. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions, and could add up to the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S. The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down.
Figure 3. Damage at the Branson, Missouri Hilton after the Leap Day tornado. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theatres--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the unserved, under served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!
Figure 4. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 — Blog Index
That thing is toast.
Per Clark Co., IN emerg. manager: Report of damage to Borden High School (Borden, IN)
this is incredible how big some of these record breaks are for highs and high minimums.
http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/climate/records/yes terday/us.html?cat=
also, I don't think they got all the data in yet, because some of the record breaks from yesterday in Louisiana are not reported there, although those stations were apparently unofficial.
Recently posted photo...Sure there will be many more from this outbreak
Severe Chase, FB
This thing was an EF4 or EF5.
Strong indications of a #tornado headed toward Ft. Knox, KY, moving east at 75 MPH!
EF4 easy.
Not right now, but these are heading right in me direction.
TORNADO WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 307 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 407 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 407 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 306 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 305 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 403 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 402 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
I heard shes empty, all Moved High Up above Denver.
;)
Oh lord all those discreet cells running into dews in the mid 60s and max heating...
Look for that debarking and we'll have our answer
Link
But we could use some folks in these areas.
Portlight has a wunderblogger, Tornadodude,who if taking his Team into the Harrisburg area to Help us with that relief Mission.
Also Team Rubicon is partnering with us during this mission of relief. Anyone interested in Helping, or forming a Go team to assist can do so in the Portlight Blog, or contact Presslord, floodman, or myself via Wu-Mail.
"Debris falling from the sky" in Boone Co., KY. Now crossing I-71 E of Warsaw, KY! TAKE COVER! http://wxch.nl/ADwJs4#tornado[via Twitter]
OMG...
The insane super-hail storm outbreak is underway, with tornadoes.
I guess all that heat build-up from the past several days had to go somewhere.
widespread 1.75 to 2.5 inch max hail size.
This is going to be very bad in total damages, even if we get lucky regarding tornadoes.
Radar Detected Storms
Location: Hurricane Mills, TN Lat: 36.01 Lon: -87.76
Type: Rotating Thunderstorm (H9)
Max Reflectivity: 68 dBZ
Severe Hail: 100% Chance
Hail: 100% Chance
Max Hail Size: 2.75 in.
Echo Top: 32,000 ft.
Vert. Integrated Liquid: 51 kg/m²
Speed: 60 mph (52 knots)
Direction (from): W (259)
Radar Site: PAH
TORNADO WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 319 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 418 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 317 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 316 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 316 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 415 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 414 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 414 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 313 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 411 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 311 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 410 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 410 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 309 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
Looks like at least EF4 just from the scale and shape?
Oh, my God. There's a lot of activity on that map. This is going to be a very bad one...
Many of these areas are going to receive round 2 shortly or this evening, it'll be unbelievably dangerous to have anyone out on the streets until the whole event is over
Viewing: 701 - 751
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 — Blog Index