Super Sunday tropical disturbance forms in Yucatan Channel
OK, this is officially nuts. The first Super Sunday Invest in history formed this morning in the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, and is slowly becoming more organized as it moves northeast towards Southwest Florida. The new disturbance, dubbed Invest 90L by NHC late this morning, has a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and 90L may be able to close off a surface circulation if it can find 24 more hours of marginally favorable conditions. Radar loops out of La Bajada on the western tip of Cuba show heavy thunderstorms over Western Cuba, but there is no organization of the echoes into low-level spiral bands. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm formation. Ocean temperatures in the Yucatan Channel are 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is also marginal. 90L is suffering from ingestion of dry air along its western flanks, courtesy of an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.
Figure 1. Is this football season or baseball season? The Super Sunday Invest 90L looks more characteristic of something we'd expect to see in May.
Forecast for 90L
Both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the shear will remain below 25 knots through Monday, so there is some potential for continued development of 90L as it moves northeast towards South Florida. On Monday afternoon or evening, the storm will merge with a cold front and move over South Florida, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches and sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph. If it develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which I put at a 20% chance, the winds and rains will be higher. I doubt 90L has enough time or favorable enough conditions to become a tropical or subtropical depression, especially considering the disturbance's small size. There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year in this location--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,
The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Doesnt seem to be stopping 90L ATM.
LOL...do you have a tracking map of the southern hemisphere too?
Personally...I like to "vacation" on tropical weather tracking during the Atlantic off-season....but heck this isn't much of an off-season right now. I am working tax stuff...but honestly this is very distracting LOL...
Well that just confirms right now its associated with a cold front marching in from Texas. What makes me interested in it is the upper support (upper trough) is likely to get cut-off if it hasn't already. This I think is how 90-L started out...& then its upper air support got cut-off...
I track:
Northern Indian basin
Southern Indian basin
Southwest Pacific basin
Eastern Pacific basin
North Atlantic basin
---------------------------
Thought about the NW pacific, but they average 18 storms per year and thats a bit much for me, with the E Pac and N Atl at the same time!
oh and, i also got a big lamenated map of the atlantic above my billboard on my wall. so when my family starts asking, well i just show them lol
LOL...I must say you are more "well-cultured" with tropical cyclones than I am. Do the other basins produce early-bird disturbances like 90L?
Same here.
except no one around here ever asks... people in new york dont care :P
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/gehov2latest. gif
It shows the origins of 90L. Particularly....looking @ Feb 1 and 2....I see a convective mass marching through the Bay of Campehce analagous to how today's W GOM convective mass looks. And the upper-level omega block pattern over south Canada/north US makes it likely that this W GOM system will cut-off like 90L did...that is why I am "excited" about what could happen with the west GOM system at a later date....
Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, February 5th, with Video
I agree DRM. Never thought I'd be tracking an invest when it's 45 degrees outside! UGH! Lol. Sorry, I don't do cold well.
You know this is serious when both Dr. M and Levi make a blog post....LOL! Thanks Levi!
Cold? It hasn't been cold at all this winter.
In summer itll be 135!
BTW, how are you enjoying all the rain this year?
I know! I moved up to Michigan from NC this past summer...and I am kinda ticked off that we really didn't get much snow where I am at. I guess I picked the best year to move up to Michigan so I can gradually get used to winters up here....
Lol. I was getting spoiled again with the warm temps we'd been having. We even have a wind chill for Pete's sake! I think there may be a Canadian somewhere laughing and pointing his fan this way. :p Lol. But the rains have been great! Hope they continue from now on. :D
Orange County Airport
Lat: 30.07 Lon: -93.8 Elev: 13
Last Update on Feb 5, 3:35 pm CST
Light Rain
46 °F
(8 °C)
Humidity: 87 %
Wind Speed: N 14 G 18 MPH
Barometer: 30.21"
Dewpoint: 43 °F (6 °C)
Wind Chill: 40 °F (4 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
well...sometimes i guess. as well as late season storms. The North Indian Cyclone Season runs from April 1st to november 30th, and 2011 had 2 december cyclones in the N indian. but they arent as rare as atlantic late seasons.
aw man u complete opposite of me..i hate cold weather. i would rather have a thunderstorm when it 85 degrees then a snowstorm at 25 xD
Link
1952 TC archive
A most unremarkable year.
330 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOW
PRES 1018 MB NEAR 25N94.5W THEN S-SW TO NEAR 20N97W WILL MOVE SE
AND EXTEND FROM FLORIDA BID BEND TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON
MORNING...WITH GALES ALONG MEXICAN COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. FRONT
TO STALL TUE AND DRIFT NW AND BECOME ILL DEFINED WED AND THU. N
TO S TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG 86W/87W EXTENDS S THROUGH
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO NW CARIB WITH LOW PRES 1013 MB NEAR 23N87W
WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS SE GULF THROUGH MON. LOW AND TROUGH TO SHIFT NE ACROSS SE
GULF TONIGHT AND MON MORNING THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA MON. HIGH
PRES TO BUILD S IN WAKE OF FRONT. REINFORCING FRONT TO SINK SE
ACROSS N GULF WED NIGHT AND THU.
Had twice as much activity that year than in 2011. :P
By contrast, a tropical storm from last year:
225 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2012
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY INTERESTING WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY AS COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SLOWLY SE OFF TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS...AND DEEP LAYERED
VORTEX OVER YUCATAN CHANNEL MAINTAINING CONVECTION AND APPEARING
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY 1628 UTC
ASCAT PASS WITH INTERESTING NOTCH ALONG FRONT NEAR 25N95W...AND
25-30 KT WINDS STREAMING SWD ALONG MEXICAN COAST. RECENT GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES W OF FRONT AND S OF
25N LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AND HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WARNING AS SUCH. FRONT TO MOVE S-SE ACROSS WRN GULF AND SE
ACROSS NRN GULF AND ARCH FROM NEAR 29N83W TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY MON MORNING...WITH ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUING ALONG SW
PORTIONS OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. BUOY 42020 HAS BEEN WAVERING AT
10-11 FT ALL MORNING...SOME 3-4 FT ABOVE WW3 AND ALL OTHER WAVE
MODELS. FRONT TO THEN WASH OUT ACROSS S AND SE GULF FROM NEAR
26N82W TO OFFSHORE OF NW YUCATAN COAST. WINDS VEER N TO NE AND
DROP OFF THE 15 KT DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS DROPPING
ACCORDINGLY. COASTAL TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS W GULF 48-72 HRS
WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE YIELDING SCATTERED CONVECTION.
AS FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DISTURBANCE...SRN STREAM NEGATIVE
TILT S/W SHIFTING E-NE ACROSS YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY
HAS MOVED OVER LLVL TROFFING IN SAME LOCATION...WITH VIGOROUS
MID LEVEL TURNING SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST OFF W TIP OF
CUBA. IR AND VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST LLVL TURNING AND CLOUD LINES
FROM SW TO NE OFF E COAST OF YUCATAN...WITH AN 1800 UTC SHIP OB
OF SE WINDS AT 20 KT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH APPARENT CYCLONIC
TURNING. FURTHER INSPECTION OF VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A MESO LOW NEAR
23N87W...WHERE WE HAVE PUT A LOW ON SFC MAP...AND ANOTHER LOW OR
TWO ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING NE THEN
E-NE ACROSS THE STRAITS AND TO THE KEYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL MOVE NE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ACROSS S FL MON AND MON
EVENING AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE LAMINAR FLOW ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT SOME SFC DEVELOPMENT PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND IT
APPEARS OBVIOUS THAT A LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL MOVE ACROSS
S FL MON AND MON NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
SHIFTING NE ACROSS E SEMICIRCLE. WHETHER OR NOT A SFC LOW IS
REALIZED REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT
ANTICIPATING MORE THAN 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT IN A SMALL ZONE
ACROSS N AND NW QUAD OF ANY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. SOME LINGERING TROFFING LIKELY TO PERSIST BEHIND
THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE MAIN CONCERNS.
Don?
Yep. I'd say 90L looks better.
Today provides an opportunity to preview my auto-updating ATCF page, where the most pertinent info is displayed without you having to decipher it from the confusing ATCF files.
That monster storm! It's name should get retired!
Plus, theres that storm that people never knew about and it was barely noticeable.(Jose)
not as bad as TS Jose :)
No. Jose obviously deserves to be retired.
If I remember correctly, there was also a closed low developing in the Pacific south of CostaRica.
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