Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:08 PM GMT del 31 Gennaio 2012 | +30 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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"This provides unequivocal evidence that the sun is not the dominant driver of global warming," said James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who led the research released Monday.
On the Wall Street Journal's opinion page, 16 scientists recently said there's no need for drastic action to "decarbonize" the world's economy. "Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now," they wrote without providing data.
Not so, according to U.S. government records. In December, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that all 11 years of the 21st century so far (2001–2011) rank among the 13 warmest in the 132-year period of record.
The Hansen-led study, published in the December issue of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, said the magnitude of the Earth's energy imbalance is fundamental to climate science. If the imbalance is positive and more energy enters the system than exits, the Earth warms. If the imbalance is negative, the planet cools.
The researchers concluded that the 0.58 watts per square meter imbalance implies that carbon dioxide levels need to be reduced to about 350 parts per million to restore the energy budget to equilibrium. They say the most recent measurements put CO2 levels at 392 parts per million and those concentrations are expected to keep rising.
Scientists have been refining calculations of the Earth's energy imbalance for years, but NASA researchers say their newest estimate is an improvement because they had access to better measurements of ocean temperature
Been downright drizzly here today. The lakes are getting heavier rain. Always good to see that. May get more here later. Depending on which model verifies I guess.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
NOISY SW FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST REGION DOWNSTREAM OF A MEAN
LOW AMPLITUDE WRN CONUS TROF.
AT THE SFC...STNG HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS WITH AN AXIS STRETCHING WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST....WITH
A CDFNT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING FM NE KS TO THE
TX PANHANDLE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
EAST TEXAS...WHICH COINCIDES QUITE WELL WITH PROGGED EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF 850-700MB THETAE RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DECENT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA TRANSLATES THROUGH THE THE ARKLATEX...WITH
RELATIVE DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE KNOCKING POPS DOWN TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS OF A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE FORMING OVER THE EPAC/WEST COAST...WITH A
DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND BECOMING CUT OFF...OR NEARLY
SO...OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT AT THE SFC IS A LEE-SIDE LOW
THAT TRACKS EAST THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A N-S ORIENTED
CDFNT PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHERE OVER EAST TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
LIFT COUPLED WITH A NWD SURGE OF MOISTURE LED TO INCREASING POPS A
BIT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THIS...THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...AND THUS THE SURFACE FEATURES...CONTINUES
TO BE A SOURCE OF DISAGREEMENT. FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...USED A
BLEND OF HPC/GFS/GEM TO ARRIVE AT A SOLUTION THAT SHOWS A WEAKER
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON SATURDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF
DOESN/T GET THE FRONT EAST OF OUR AREA UNTIL MONDAY...DEPICTING A
LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GFS OR GEM.
SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...A WARMER AND RAINIER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WOULD TRANSPIRE.
They did. Ike replaced it.
"I" storms in particular are notorious for being destructive. This is probably attributable to the fact that they appear most commonly during peak season.
My favorite "I" storm was Isabel. That was the strongest tropical system I've been in so far.
If we're going by exciting storms, I choose Gustav. Nothing quite like standing out in 90 mph winds.
Usually, the six lists of names for tropical storms and hurricanes repeat every six years. However, if there is an unusually large or damaging hurricane, the name is retired by the World Meteorological Organization hurricane committee because using it again could be considered insensitive. The hurricane name is then retired not used for at least ten years. Here is a list of hurricane names that have been retired.
Retired Hurricane Names Alphabetically
Agnes (1972)
Alicia (1983)
Allen (1980)
Allison (2001)
Andrew (1992)
Anita (1977)
Audrey (1957)
Betsy (1965)
Beulah (1967)
Bob (1991)
Camille (1969)
Carla (1961)
Carmen (1974)
Carol (1954)
Celia (1970)
Cesar (1996)
Charley (2004)
Cleo (1964)
Connie (1955)
David (1979)
Dean (2007)
Dennis (2005)
Diana (1990)
Diane (1955)
Donna (1960)
Dora (1964)
Edna (1968)
Elena (1985)
Eloise (1975)
Fabian (2003)
Felix (2007)
Fifi (1974)
Flora (1963)
Floyd (1999)
Fran (1996)
Frances (2004)
Frederic (1979)
Georges (1998)
Gilbert (1988)
Gloria (1985)
Gustav (2008)
Hattie (1961)
Hazel (1954)
Hilda (1964)
Hortense (1996)
Hugo (1989)
Igor (2010)
Ike (2008)
Inez (1966)
Ione (1955)
Iris (2001)
Isabel (2003)
Isidore (2002)
Ivan (2004)
Janet (1955)
Jeanne (2004)
Joan (1988)
Juan (2003)
Katrina (2005)
Keith (2000)
Klaus (1990)
Lenny (1999)
Lili (2002)
Luis (1995)
Marilyn (1995)
Michelle (2001)
Mitch (1998)
Noel (2007)
Opal (1995)
Paloma (2008)
Rita (2005)
Roxanne (1995)
Stan (2005)
Tomas (2010)
Wilma (2005)
Retired Hurricane Names Chronologically
1954 - Carol
1954 - Hazel
1955 - Connie
1955 - Diane
1955 - Ione
1955 - Janet
1957 - Audrey
1960 - Donna
1961 - Carla
1961 - Hattie
1963 - Flora
1964 - Cleo
1964 - Dora
1964 - Hilda
1965 - Betsy
1966 - Inez
1967 - Beulah
1968 - Edna
1969 - Camille
1970 - Celia
1972 - Agnes
1974 - Carmen
1974 - Fifi
1975 - Eloise
1977 - Anita
1979 - David
1979 - Frederic
1980 - Allen
1983 - Alicia
1985 - Elena
1985 - Gloria
1988 - Gilbert
1988 - Joan
1989 - Hugo
1990 - Diana
1990 - Klaus
1991 - Bob
1992 - Andrew
1995 - Luis
1995 - Marilyn
1995 - Opal
1995 - Roxanne
1996 - Cesar
1996 - Fran
1996 - Hortense
1998 - Georges
1998 - Mitch
1999 - Floyd
1999 - Lenny
2000 - Keith
2001 - Allison
2001 - Iris
2001 - Michelle
2002 - Isidore
2002 - Lili
2003 - Fabian
2003 - Isabel
2003 - Juan
2004 - Charley
2004 - Frances
2004 - Ivan
2004 - Jeanne
2005 - Dennis
2005 - Katrina
2005 - Rita
2005 - Stan
2005 - Wilma
2007 - Dean
2007 - Felix
2007 - Noel
2008 - Gustav
2008 - Ike
2008 - Paloma
2010 - Igor
2010 - Tomas
Don't forget Irene.
I wonder if Wilma will retain that unique spot of being the only "W" storm retired?
XD
Or better yet, how about a Greek storm? Part of me thinks Beta would've gotten that treatment if the WMO actually had a backup plan.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EST Tuesday 31 January 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 29.80 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3
Temperature: 50.0°F
Dewpoint: 39.9°F
Humidity: 68 %
Wind: WSW 16 mph
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= can-tropical-cyclones-be-stoppedLink
Well...that can't be good.
Did somebody call cyclonebuster?
In a warming world, this is inevitable.
I don't want to die yet! :(
Dear bappit,
That photo shows just about every kind of toxic waste and aerosol available. It's acid, it's small particulates that go right into your bloodstream, and its chemical fog which forms around minute particles that are too light to rain. Drought is the order of the day. Then, on top of that, China has an office of weather modification on every street corner, and from there they proceed to screw up the whole world's weather.
If it's any consolation, we won't care because we won't be conscious.
Agreed. I told my dad "So they say the world ends this year. I hope I go out with a hurricane."
Hurricane? No...I'd rather get it over with. Tornado all the way.
Bill Gates is the chairman of Microsoft.
By no stretch of the imagination is he an idiot.
Better tell that to some rich guy!
lmfao
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY TWO (11U)
9:00 AM WST February 1 2012
=================================
At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category Two (979 hPa) located at 26.0S 107.6E or 620 km west southwest of Carnarvon and 760 km west northwest of Geraldton has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/S/0.0/24 HRS
Storm Force Winds
=================
35 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
--------------------
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 28.0S 108.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 29.0S 110.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 29.5S 114.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.5S 120.2E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
Additional Information
=======================
Subjective Dvorak DTs have been hovering between 3.0 and 3.5 for a considerable time now. For a period overnight the DTs clearly reached 3.5 and 50 kn winds were observed on the ASCAT pass at 14Z. Since that time there has been a slight decrease in the organization and degree of curvature. Although DTs of 3.5 can be obtained on some recent images most analyses produce DT3.0. ADT went back up to CI 4.1 overnight when it detected an eye scene and although raw DTs are down at 2.3-2.8 over the last 6 hours the CI is still coming down from the overnight peak and is at 3.8. AMSU intensity estimates at 19Z were around 65 knots 10-min mean.
Final intensity estimate is 50 knots 10-min mean.
Although Iggy is now in a climatologically unfavorable region for TCs, Sea surface temperatures are 25-26C [warmer than normal], the shear remains low and there is favorable outflow aloft. The low shear is also protecting the core of the cyclone from the dry air at the system's periphery. During Wednesday the convection should struggle as Iggy begins to move over waters less than 24C.
Models show good agreement on the track with the majority taking the remnant system towards the west coast on Thursday. There are no indications that gales could be maintained through to landfall.
The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Consider me a risk taker. Unless said risk involves drowning by storm surge.
...
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
12:00 PM FST February 1 2012
======================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (997 hPa) located at 18.3S 172.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observation.
Organization has improved in the past 12 hours. Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. System lies south of 250 hpa ridge axis, downstream of an upper trough and just north of the 250 hpa jet. Depression lies in a region of low to moderate shear and is being steered to the southeast by a deep layer mean northwesterly wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 27-28C
Dvorak analysis based on 0.40 wrap yields. Final Dvorak based on DT. MET and PT agrees.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24hrs
Global models are intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards then southwest.
Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is moderate to high.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
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please modify those posts with quoted Language as well
Report: “High level radiation cloud” detected passing over New Zealand city — Peaks reached an “incredible” 1.89 microSv/h
Source: Peter Daley
Date: 29th January 2012
I have been in contact with a person In New Zealand who just sent me information of a detection of a high level radiation cloud passing over Dunedin New Zealand. You will find a copy of his email correspondence below. This chart is the recorded background radiation level during this event. Visual observation saw peaks reach an incredible 1.89 uS/Hr !
Read complete report.....[...] Link
Just for you Pat. Just for you.
good point. fixed my original post.
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