2011: Earth's 11th warmest year; where is the climate headed?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 05:22 PM GMT del 27 Gennaio 2012

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The year 2011 tied with 1997 as the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said last week. NASA rated 2011 as the 9th warmest on record. Land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures, the 11th warmest. For the Arctic, which has warmed about twice as much as the rest of the planet, 2011 was the warmest year on record (between 64°N and 90°N latitude.) The year 2011 was also the 2nd wettest year over land on record, as evidenced by some of the unprecedented flooding Earth witnessed. The wettest year over land was the previous year, 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2011. The Arctic was the warmest region, relative to average. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global temperatures were 0.12°C (0.2°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead.


Figure 2. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2011, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 33 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took the five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. Since the known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 33 years, either human activity or some unknown natural source is responsible for the global warming during that time period.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.

Commentary: what do climate scientists think?
Some scientists have proposed that previously unknown natural causes could be responsible for global warming, such as a decrease in cloud-producing galactic cosmic rays. Others have proposed that the climate may be responding to the heat-trapping effects of carbon dioxide by producing more clouds, which reflect away sunlight and offset the added heat-trapping gases. These theories have little support among actively publishing climate scientists. Despite public belief that climate scientists are divided about the human contribution to our changing climate, polling data show high agreement among climate scientists that humans are significantly affecting the climate. A 2008 poll of actively publishing climate scientists found that 97% said yes to the question, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" In my personal experience interacting with climate scientists, I have found near-universal support for this position. For example, I am confident that all 23 climate scientists and meteorologists whom I am personally acquainted with at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Science would agree that "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures." It is good that we have scientists skeptical of the prevailing consensus challenging it, though, because that is how scientific progress is made. It may be that one of the scientists making these challenges will turn out to be the next Einstein or Galileo, and overthrow the conventional scientific wisdom on climate change. But Einsteins and Galileos don't come along very often. The history of science is littered with tens of thousands of discredited scientific papers that challenged the accepted scientific consensus and lost. If we rely on hopes that the next Einstein or Galileo will successfully overthrow the current scientific consensus on climate change, we are making a high-stakes, low-probability-of-success gamble on the future of civilization. The richest and most powerful corporations in world history, the oil companies, have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to push us to take this gamble, and their efforts have been very successful. Advertising works, particularly when your competition has little money to spend to oppose you.

Where is the climate headed?
The 2007 United Nations-sponsored IPCC report predicted that global temperatures between 2007 and 2030 should rise by an average of 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. The observed warming over the past 30 years is 15 - 30% below that (but within the range of uncertainty given by the 2007 IPCC climate models.) Most of the increase in global temperatures during the past 30 years occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. The 2000s have seen relatively flat temperatures, despite increasing CO2 emissions by humans. The lower-than-expected warming may be partially due to a sharp decrease in stratospheric water vapor that began after 2000. The missing heat may also be going into the deep ocean waters below about 1,000 feet (300 meters), as part of a decades-long cycle that will bring extra heat to the surface years from now. Regardless, the laws of physics demand that the huge amount of heat-trapping gases humans are pumping into the atmosphere must be significantly altering the weather and climate, even if we are seeing a lower than predicted warming. As wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood said in a recent post,Changing the Conversation: Extreme Weather and Climate: "Given that greenhouse gases are well-known to hold energy close to the Earth, those who deny a human-caused impact on weather need to pose a viable mechanism of how the Earth can hold in more energy and the weather not be changed. Think about it."

Our recent unusual weather has made me think about this a lot. The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history--the "Super" tornado outbreak of 1974, the Dust Bowl summer of 1936, and the great Mississippi River flood of 1927. I appeared on PBS News Hour on December 28 (video here) to argue that watching the weather over the past two years has been like watching a famous baseball hitter on steroids--an analogy used in the past by climate scientists Tony Broccoli and Jerry Meehl. We're used to seeing the slugger hit the ball out of the park, but not with the frequency he's hitting them now that he's on steroids. Moreover, some of the home runs now land way back in the seats where no one has ever been able to hit a home run before. We can't say that any particular home run would not have occurred without the steroids, but the increase in home runs and the unprecedented ultra-long balls are highly suspicious. Similarly, Earth's 0.6°C (1°F) warming and 4% increase in global water vapor since 1970 have created an atmosphere on steroids. A warmer atmosphere has more energy to power stronger storms, hotter heat waves, more intense droughts, and heavier flooding rains. Natural weather patterns could have caused some of the extreme events we witnessed during 2010 - 2011, and these years likely would have been naturally extreme years even without climate change. But it strains the bounds of credulity that all of the extreme weather events--some of them 1-in-1000-year type events--could have occurred without a significant change to the base climate state. Mother Nature is now able to hit the ball out of the park more often, and with much more power, thanks to the extra energy global warming has put into the atmosphere.

Extreme weather years like 2010 and 2011 are very likely to increase in frequency, since there is a delay of several decades between when we put heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere and when the climate fully responds. This is because Earth's oceans take so long to heat up when extra heat is added to the atmosphere (think about how long it takes it takes for a lake to heat up during summer.) Due to this lag, we are just now experiencing the full effect of CO2 emitted by the late 1980s; since CO2 has been increasing by 1 - 3% per year since then, there is a lot more climate change "in the pipeline" we cannot avoid. We've set in motion a dangerous boulder of climate change that is rolling downhill, and it is too late to avoid major damage when it hits full-force several decades from now. However, we can reduce the ultimate severity of the damage with strong and rapid action. A boulder rolling downhill can be deflected in its path more readily early in its course, before it gains too much momentum in its downward rush. For example, the International Energy Agency estimates that every dollar we invest in alternative energy before 2020 will save $4.30 later. There are many talented and dedicated people working very hard to deflect the downhill-rolling boulder of climate change--but they need a lot more help very soon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You know what comes next don't ya TM?
Well, let's see. This is a public forum--that is, a place to discuss relevant items of interest. And trunkmonkey brought up--for at least the sixth time today--the hogwash article in the Mail. So my guess of what's next? Probably another response--at least the sixth one today. ;-)

Speaking of, here you go: http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/the-dai ly-mail-prints-climate-nonsense/
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You know what comes next don't ya TM?
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hey i just realize feb has 29 days makes it a leap year
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The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.
A painting, dated 1684, by Abraham Hondius depicts one of many frost fairs on the River Thames during the mini ice age

A painting, dated 1684, by Abraham Hondius depicts one of many frost fairs on the River Thames during the mini ice age

Meanwhile, leading climate scientists yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.

Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak.

We are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’ – which is why last week’s solar storm resulted in sightings of the aurora borealis further south than usual. But sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th Century.

Analysis by experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from magnetic-field measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface – suggest that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker still.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-209 3264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NA SA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html#ixz z1kt7SeLdq
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Quoting wxmod:
In case you're wondering what post 613 looks like on the ground, here are 2 views from today.


I heard some economist said that China was the best run country in the world. It looks like they will all be dead pretty soon. PS: I copied these today from what appeared to be a live cam, but the dates don't match up. Not many web cams to choose from in China.


Reminds me of those pictures in London from the early part of last century. Nothing like having your lungs encased in carbonite.
Member Since: Ottobre 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1453
Quoting Levi32:
These are the current temperatures around the UAF campus. We are covered in ice fog as well.



That's a touch nippy. Seems like you guys got all the winter.
Member Since: Ottobre 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1453
Can you imagine if the middle of Summer was 25 degree's below normal, in the plains, as it is above now, RUSH and the right would be screaming, SEE, SEE no GW..it's COLD in Summer!!.


Phunny u dont here a peep outta dem with the winter avg's running 25 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.


Go fig yah', eh?


Short Range Public Discussion

(Latest Discussion - Issued 2006Z Jan 28, 2012)





SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
306 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

VALID 00Z SUN JAN 29 2012 - 00Z TUE JAN 31 2012

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...





A FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH A VARY MODEST SUPPLE OF MOISTURE ... ONLY
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.




ANOTHER WEAK FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY EVENING THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT ... THEN OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. LIKEWISE ... BEHIND THIS FRONT ... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
MONDAY.




ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST ... STARTING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION ... LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORM ... ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY MORNING.




ELSEWHERE ... AN OLD BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA
WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.





ZIEGENFELDER
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
Seems like they are trying to find an excuse to hype winter in a year with no winter.

Most Humans are way to busy with their novel connectivity to even notice Winter is MIA in the Populated lower 48.

Plus, the eons of programming has conditioned the mind to reject such a notion, we look away and excuse it with a mere moment.

And the controlling ones in Leadership Worldwide are very concerned with the rapid Global Free for all that is here, and increasing.

Last week a 11 meter, or 33 ft Meteor passed within 60,000 miles of us with very lil warning.

Expect the collective conscience to become aware of what's occurring soon, but million's world wide are on to something coming..just out of sight, over the near horizon.

Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
Quoting RTSplayer:
Love it.

The WEather Channel just said they expect that winter wasn't gone, that it's just late. They expect it to be cold in February and March.

Ham Weather shows most of the U.S. being above average for February, and about half the nation being above average for the next 3 months.

February Outlooks


Is it just me?

Seems like they are trying to find an excuse to hype winter in a year with no winter.
move along everything is abnormally normal
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Love it.

The WEather Channel just said they expect that winter wasn't gone, that it's just late. They expect it to be cold in February and March.

Ham Weather shows most of the U.S. being above average for February, and about half the nation being above average for the next 3 months.

February Outlooks


Is it just me?

Seems like they are trying to find an excuse to hype winter in a year with no winter.
Member Since: Gennaio 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
622. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #25
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 AM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (977 hPa) located at 20.0S 111.4E or 355 km northwest of Exmouth and 590 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is expected to continue to move very slowly this morning before taking a more southwesterly track during Monday afternoon.

It is possible that Tropical Cyclone Iggy may move close enough to the coast to cause a period of gales between Exmouth and Coral Bay. Destructive winds are not expected. Gales are not expected to occur between Coral Bay and Carnarvon.

Tides will be higher than expected along the upper west coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Onslow to Coral Bay, including Exmouth.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.6S 111.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.2S 110.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 23.6S 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 26.1S 107.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery and ASCAT. Although shear remains low, there has been little sign of intensification. FT number remains at 3.0 based on wrap averaging 0.6-0.7 on images since 0530Z. MET and PAT have generally been around 3.0, and although the latest image could be classified as 3.5, FT and CI is held at 3.0. CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate at 09Z indicated 61 knots 1-min, although previous estimates were a fair bit lower than this. ADT is now at 56 knots 1-min and SATCON 59 knots 1-min. Final intensity estimate is held at 45 knots 10-min mean, which is supported by a 1440Z ASCAT pass which showed no winds above 40 knots around the system.

The lack of development may also be hindered by Iggy's lack of movement, meaning the system remains over the cooler water it has upwelled. Satellite imagery shows a deck of stratocumulus to the SW indicating a stable maritime boundary layer unfavorable for development.

It is possible that Iggy may re-intensify slightly over the next few hours in the diurnally favorable period, but in the longer term it is unlikely that Iggy will significantly intensify, contrary to some model guidance. By Tuesday the system will be moving over much cooler sea surface temperature and may be experiencing stronger wind shear.

TC Iggy has remained near stationary over the last 24 hours but a southwest movement is expected to begin soon. The system should then track southwest away from the coast and weaken below cyclone strength offshore in about 2 to 3 days. It is possible the remnants of Iggy may move back towards the west coast later in the week but it is very unlikely that Iggy would still be a cyclone at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
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621. wxmod
In case you're wondering what post 613 looks like on the ground, here are 2 views from today.


I heard some economist said that China was the best run country in the world. It looks like they will all be dead pretty soon. PS: I copied these today from what appeared to be a live cam, but the dates don't match up. Not many web cams to choose from in China.
Member Since: Ottobre 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1738
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which one was that?.


Ului from the SPac season 2009-10.
Member Since: novembre 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Well I got to go. settin up for family night at church, gon watch movie "Courageous" and have grilled cheeses, chili and all that good stuff.

!enoyreve doog eB
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
606. wxmod
613. wxmod
Those 2 images you posted look like they contain an awful lot of atmospheric pollution.
Can anybody confirm this?
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Quoting Patrap:
Do you enjoy posting things multiple times of the same thing, or do you get bored er what?

Actually I do it to just drive you nutz.

Which, is easily done judging by your er, ego'd response.

We also enjoy you talking to yourself here,,

Anything else?

psst, look over your right shoulder and tell me what you observe.


it wouldnt seem like i talk to myself if my questions would be answred when i ask.

Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Why is Florida the only state with a freeze warning? of all states...northern florida..
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate



Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
613. wxmod
Eastern China Today

Member Since: Ottobre 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1738
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's actually more like 70-120%

How can it be greater than 100%, you ask? Numerous factors including sulphate cooling and biosphere carbon sinks have reduced the warming more than expected.
I was referring specifically to the December article in Nature Geoscience that stated that at least 74 percent of the current observed warming is due to human activity (and that it is extremely unlikely--less than a five percent chance--that the observed trends are due to natural variability). For what it's worth, I tend to agree with the figure cited by Gavin Schmidt:

"Over the last 40 or so years, natural drivers would have caused cooling, and so the warming there has been … is caused by a combination of human drivers and some degree of internal variability. I would judge the maximum amplitude of the internal variability to be roughly 0.1 deg C over that time period, and so given the warming of ~0.5 deg C, I’d say somewhere between 80 to 120% of the warming. Slightly larger range if you want a large range for the internal stuff."

--which I assume is the source of the number you cited.
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Do you enjoy posting things multiple times of the same thing, or do you get bored er what?

Actually I do it to just drive you nutz.

Which, is easily done judging by your er, ego'd response.

We also enjoy you talking to yourself here,,

Anything else?

psst, look over your right shoulder and tell me what you observe.
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which one was that?.


Cyclone SPLbeater
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting bappit:

Rebound of bedrock happens much more slowly than ice melting. Rebound is still going on from the last ice age.
The Great Lakes region is a prime example.
Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20509
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I read -60 today in the morning for Bettles, AK


WOW. you must need about 7 blankets at night, and a super heating system lol. stay warm.
Quoting Patrap:
The atmosphere, it's where the Dynamics of Fluid resides, and having the Earth's Cyclone's reminds us of it, and it's Powerful Potential made real by it.



The 4% increase in WV is a primer, wait till the WV expands that number, exponentially.


Do you enjoy posting things multiple times of the same thing, or do you get bored er what?
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting yqt1001:


It's not a conversation about doom until there is a loop of an explosively intensifying cyclone! :D

Which one was that?.
Member Since: Agosto 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16415
606. wxmod
Lower Ganges River Watershed today. Himalaya is at the top.
Member Since: Ottobre 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1738
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
Quoting ScottLincoln:


At least one paper presentation I sat in on at the AMS 2012 meeting suggests that we are already there and hypothetical changes to the atmospheric circulation from Arctic melting are already observable.

I used to be an optimist. That was about half a century ago when all we had to do was keep on living life to the full and rebuilding the perfect world from the bombed ruins of Leeds and Manchester where I grew up in.
Now I am a realist and with decades of engineering history and a bit of experience, I have to ask myself and sometimes others, "where on Earth are we going?"
Keeper put up that video of the Dubai 2020 thing and it makes me wonder, "Who's going to carry the can,"( in reality they will need more than a can to bale out that lot.) If I was a part of a design team that proposed something like that I would expect to be professionally "decommissioned," in light of what are; even accepted global warming threats, let alone the ones they don't want to talk about!
I accept that a body floats when it displaces its own weight of water,so the Greenland ice cap has a while to go before it floats out to sea as a whole or in bits but the laws of our physics state that, if you add heat ice melts and to every action there is a reaction.
This movie is not a romance, its a tragedy!
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


...research "glacial rebound." The being "surrounded by bedrock" can change as the ice cap changes.

Rebound of bedrock happens much more slowly than ice melting. Rebound is still going on from the last ice age.
Member Since: Maggio 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5956
Quoting Levi32:
These are the current temperatures around the UAF campus. We are covered in ice fog as well.

how goes it frozen friend in the land of snow and cold
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These are the current temperatures around the UAF campus. We are covered in ice fog as well.

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597. washingtonian115 8:30 PM GMT on January 29, 2012 0
Well since everyone on here are making post about humanity's impending doom and gloom then I'll say Florida will have to watch out for this years hurricane season.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 4138


Quoting yqt1001:


It's not a conversation about doom until there is a loop of an explosively intensifying cyclone! :D

if the pattern holds that we have been seeing the last few seasons well ya might just luck out again we shall see
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well since everyone on here are making post about humanity's impending doom and gloom then I'll say Florida will have to watch out for this years hurricane season.


It's not a conversation about doom until there is a loop of an explosively intensifying cyclone! :D

Member Since: novembre 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Attribution of Seasonal and Regional Changes in Arctic Moisture Convergence


NATASA SKIFIC
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey

JENNIFER A. FRANCIS
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey

JOHN J. CASSANO
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
(Manuscript received 5 September 2008, in final form 23 April 2009)


ABSTRACT

Spatial and temporal changes in high-latitude moisture convergence simulated by the National Center for
Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) are investigated. Moisture
convergence is calculated using the aerological method with model fields of specific humidity and winds
spanning the periods from 1960 to 1999 and 2070 to 2089. The twenty-first century incorporates the A2 scenario
from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The model’s realism in reproducing the twentieth-century
moisture convergence is evaluated by comparison with values derived from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis
(ERA-40). In the area north of 758N, the simulated moisture convergence is similar to observations during
summer, but it is larger in winter, spring, and autumn. The model also underestimates (overestimates) the
mean annual moisture convergence in the eastern (western) Arctic. Late twenty-first century annual, seasonal, and regional changes are determined by applying a self-organizing map technique to the model’s sea
level pressure fields to identify dominant atmospheric circulation regimes and their corresponding moisture
convergence fields. Changes in moisture convergence from the twentieth to the twenty-first century result
primarily from thermodynamic effects (;70%), albeit shifts in the frequency of dominant circulation patterns
exert a relatively large influence on future changes in the eastern Arctic. Increased moisture convergence in
the central Arctic (North Atlantic) stems mainly from thermodynamic changes in summer (winter). Changes
in the strength and location of poleward moisture gradients are most likely responsible for projected variations in moisture transport, which are in turn a consequence of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions as prescribed by the A2 scenario
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
Well since everyone on here are making post about humanity's impending doom and gloom then I'll say Florida will have to watch out for this years hurricane season.
Member Since: Agosto 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16415
Quoting aspectre:Ain't gonna happen. Most of the icesheet is firmly landlocked by surrounding bed rock.

Be about like thick oatmeal climbing outta a bowl.


...research "glacial rebound." The being "surrounded by bedrock" can change as the ice cap changes.
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Quoting JeffMasters:


Was that paper by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers? I skipped AMS this year, but caught her talk at AGU.

Jeff Masters


I believe it was a Dr. Frances from Rutgers, but don't remember the first name. I spoke with her after her talk. It sounded like she was not sure she believed the link between more negative AO and reduced ice cover, but her hypothesis was that a slowing of the longwave jet pattern would increase the amplitude of troughs/ridges, thus slowing down the forward motion of Rossby waves. With more sustained, intense ridging and troughing, weather patterns are more likely to stagnate, contributing to more prolonged droughts, floods, cold spells, and heat waves. They then tested this hypothesis and discovered that it already appeared to be occurring.
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The atmosphere, it's where the Dynamics of Fluid resides, and having the Earth's Cyclone's reminds us of it, and it's Powerful Potential made real by it.



The 4% increase in WV is a primer, wait till the WV expands that number, exponentially.
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
593. G8GT
May I call your attention to the 800 pound Gorilla in the room?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-20 93264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-N ASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html
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this is a whole new frontier when it comes to weather we are going to see things we have never seen before,we already have seen things we never seen before
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Quoting Neapolitan:
You're certainly entitled to your opinion, of course, so no shots need be fired. ;-) But actual climate scientists believe anywhere from three-quarters to every bit of the recent observed warming is due to deforestation and anthropogenic CO2.


It's actually more like 70-120%

How can it be greater than 100%, you ask? Numerous factors including sulphate cooling and biosphere carbon sinks have reduced the warming more than expected.
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Quoting PlazaRed:
We might end up with a dramatic change in the whole Northern Hemisphere weather patterns? Maybe we have already got that now!

everything changes nothing stays the same its time has come
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Quoting MrMarcus:
Not surprisingly, everyone in the scientific community isn't in agreement on this 'dire' set of predictions...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-20 93264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-N ASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html


A sceptical scientist need not read much beyond the first few sentences to end up with grave concerns for the accuracy of the stated information.

The "hasn't warmed in [5/10/15/etc] years" and the "won't warm for [15yrs/2 decades] claims have been around for some time. Both of them may be based in something truthful but are misleading at a minimum and downright conjured & actively dishonest at worst.

Were you able to double-check this information against a UK Met Office source itself?
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588. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting ScottLincoln:


At least one paper presentation I sat in on at the AMS 2012 meeting suggests that we are already there and hypothetical changes to the atmospheric circulation from Arctic melting are already observable.


Was that paper by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers? I skipped AMS this year, but caught her talk at AGU.

Jeff Masters
Quoting ScottLincoln:


At least one paper presentation I sat in on at the AMS 2012 meeting suggests that we are already there and hypothetical changes to the atmospheric circulation from Arctic melting are already observable.


point of no return
... --- ...
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Quoting PlazaRed:
We might end up with a dramatic change in the whole Northern Hemisphere weather patterns? Maybe we have already got that now!



At least one paper presentation I sat in on at the AMS 2012 meeting suggests that we are already there and hypothetical changes to the atmospheric circulation from Arctic melting are already observable.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Are there any current plans to construct a dyke across the Straits of Hormuz.
Most of those building in the Video seem to be about 6 foot above Persian Gulf level.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


0.o


I did notice how cold it is up there. Fairbanks is in my favorites list, and its reading -50!


I read -60 today in the morning for Bettles, AK
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583. Skyepony (Mod)
Alaska dispatch:  Arctic policy nerds and Far North students of all kinds, prepare to get your geek on ... According to the Barents Observer,
the library of Norway's University of Tromsø has collected a registry
of thousands of research documents that concern the High North -- and
has made it available online free of charge.
The searchable collection, called "High North Research Documents," features all sorts of writing and images from around the world concerning topics important in the circumpolar North.
The documents are written in many different languages, but the
majority of them are in English, the library announced in a press
release.
"This will be a very useful service for anyone interested in the High
North, be it journalists, decision makers in business and public
administration, politicians, NGOs, students and researchers," says
academic librarian Leif Longva at the University of Tromsø.
At its launch, the website contained records of nearly 100,000
documents, but its administrators intend for it to be dynamic and
ever-growing. Nearly 10,000 of the items pertain directly to Alaska.
Read more, here, and look up your favorite research topic, here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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